Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nikolski, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 061259 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 359 AM AKST Fri Dec 6 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An upper level ridge over the eastern Bering is slowly becoming more amplified and moving eastward over Southcentral. A strong upper level low centered northwest of Shemya is producing gale force winds over the central Bering as its associated front approaches the southwest coast. Scattered snow showers continue to linger over both the Kuskokwim Delta coast and inland Bristol Bay area. Meanwhile, a weak trough at the surface has generated some light snow showers over the Cook Inlet region this morning ahead of a larger front approaching from the west.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models have come into slightly better agreement regarding key features in the upper levels, however they still struggle to resolve the positions and tracks of several surface lows moving over the southern half of the state this weekend. Forecast confidence remains below average beyond 48 hours as the models still differ greatly.

AVIATION. PANC . Low stratus and fog continue to linger over the area. Light snow showers will continue through the early morning, leading to MVFR conditions before improving by midday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). The weak weather system over the area this morning will dissipate this afternoon as a weak and transient ridge builds over the area. Strong southerly flow aloft will push into Southcentral beginning tonight. This will bring a stronger weather system, and also a considerable warming trend. This makes forecasting precipitation type a bit more challenging, as the warmer air clashes with the cold air over the region. Snow should change quickly to rain late tonight along coastal eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William Sound as a strong southerly surface wind develops. For inland locations the transition will take a little longer, with rain mixing in over the western Kenai fairly early Saturday morning, then work its way up the Inlet to the Anchorage area by late morning and into the Matanuska Valley in the afternoon. Farther north, the colder air should remain in place probably through Saturday night. Winds will also increase for some areas, with strong winds through Turnagain Arm and possibly on the Upper Hillside of Anchorage this afternoon through Saturday afternoon. For the lower elevations of Anchorage, strong winds are not expected.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A front over the eastern Bering is on its way to southwest Alaska. It will reach the coast this morning and initially bring snow to the area. Stronger winds will also accompany the snow with the Kuskokwim Delta seeing enough snow and wind for blowing snow conditions. The front is pulling up warm air from the North Pacific that will begin to transition the snow over to rain this afternoon. The Kuskokwim Delta will hold on to cold air at the surface with northeast winds that will bring a potential for light freezing rain in the evening before switching to rain. Tonight into Saturday, another low will approach bringing back some cold air and transitioning precipitation back to snow. Snow will then diminish through the day Saturday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). A low over the western Bering has its front extending through the northern Bering and then south through the eastern Aleutians. The front is bringing rain to the islands. However, the parent low is advecting cold air back over the area behind the front. Another low will approach the Alaska Peninsula from the North Pacific this afternoon bringing another round of rain to the area. A generally unstable pattern will set up on Saturday with several small lows moving through a broader area of low pressure over the Bering. The result will be snow showers over the western Bering/Aleutians with rain showers over the eastern Bering/Aleutians.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

The biggest features of concern in this period will be a strong decaying low over the northern Bering and a developing system over the Gulf of AK. First, in the northern Bering, there is high confidence in a strong system that will be weakening starting on Sunday. Lingering gale force winds will be moving out of the area with this system. A broad trough of cold air across the Bering will keep a small area of gales across the western Aleutians on Sunday, but these will move out of the area to the south on Monday. Then in the Gulf of AK, a developing system is riddled with uncertainty at this time. However, we are trending things into the gale force wind range to start the week with this forecast package. It is certainly possible this system could bring storm force winds (particularly in the Barrier Jet region), however, we will wait to see a few more model runs before we make that call.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sunday through Thursday).

The long term continues to be a mess, quite frankly. Models are decidedly poor in performance, changing enough each day this week to have low confidence in them. Therefore, our forecast for the long term will be one of persistence and hedging towards the trend this winter of cycles of warming and cooling.

What this means for Southcentral is that we will continue to forecast a warm-up to start the long term, with sustained warmth through the week. This is sticking with this season's trend mentioned above by bringing us out of our current cold snap. Models are showing a series of lows and general southerly flow which is why we can at least expect that warmth to continue. Even with their fickle nature this week, they would be hard pressed to completely shift this pattern. Preliminarily for next week, there looks to be a compact low moving north along the Gulf coast Monday into Tuesday. Then, a larger and more powerful low looks to enter the western Gulf Wednesday into Thursday. Bottom line . warm, wet, and possibly windy weather for next week especially along the coast.

For the Bering, Aleutians, and Southwest AK . the longwave trough holds over the area which will continue to circulate low pressure systems within it through early next week. Models are hinting at a shortwave ridge entering the Bering Wednesday, briefly calming things midweek. Another large and powerful low looks to enter the western Bering and Aleutians Thursday. All the while, the previously mentioned powerful low in the western Gulf that develops midweek will have at least some play on weather in southwest AK with easterly winds. However, the Alaska Range will probably block most weather. Details are yet to emerge for out west in all locations, but do expect unsettled weather for the foreseeable future.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory . 155.

MARINE . Gale: 119, 130, 131, 132, 139, 150, 155, 160, 165, 172, 178, 179, 180, 181, 185, 352, 414. Heavy Freezing Spray: 181

FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . DK MARINE/LONG TERM . MSO/BB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OLSA2 - 9462450 - Nokolski, AK	16 mi	73 min	SE 4.1 G 5.1	37°F			980.5 hPa
NKLA2	17 mi	35 min	W 6 G 7	36°F			975.6 hPa	32°F

Wind History for Nikolski, AK

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SE14 G17

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S12 G15

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W8 G12

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SW13 G20

SW27 G35

SW15 G21

SW18 G23

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SW23 G28

SW23 G30

SW20 G30

SW22 G28

SW17 G25

SW21 G27

SW19 G26

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SW14 G20

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W16 G21

W10 G13

W5 G8

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NW31 G38

NW30 G37

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NW28 G34

NW29 G36

NW27

NW25 G32

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NW17 G23

NW19 G24

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SW7 G10

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S15

S10 G13

SW11 G16

SW13 G20

SW15 G19

SW17 G22

SW11 G14

SW12 G16

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Unalaska, Unalaska Airport, AK	155 mi	11 min	N 6	6.00 mi	Fog/Mist	41°F	39°F	93%	979.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADU

Wind History from ADU (wind in knots)

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S4

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NW21 G28

NW28 G34

NW24 G39

W24 G31

W19 G27

NW18 G23

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W12 G17

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Calm

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S8

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Tide / Current Tables for Adugak Islands, Umnak Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Sagak, Umnak Island, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK

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