Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nikolski, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 290102 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 502 PM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The remnants of the strong low that moved through the Gulf of Alaska is elongating over Southcentral Alaska and into Bristol Bay this afternoon bringing in some rain to a bit of the region. Some pressure rises behind this low are bringing in some gusty southerly winds into Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin.

The GOES-17 Satellite imagery for the North Pacific shows the upper level longwave trough extending southward from the central Bering Sea to about 35N in the Pacific and then curving sharply around the base of the trough and back into Southeast Alaska. The next low of significance can also be seen rapidly spinning-up around 42N 160W this afternoon. This will be the next in a series of lows to move into the western Gulf of Alaska.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in good agreement through mid week. By Wednesday evening there is a notable difference in how fast models bring the low from south of the Gulf into Bristol Bay around that time frame. The ECMWF and Canadian are the fastest of the bunch while the NAM is a bit slower and also stronger at that time. This mostly resolves itself as the next low moves into the Gulf Friday and absorbs the energy causing that first low to dissipate in the central Bering Sea. In the longer term, models are in agreement with bringing the parade of lows moving moving from the North Pacific into the Gulf going through the weekend.

AVIATION. PANC . Gusty Southeasterly winds out of Turnagain Arm are expected this evening through most of the overnight hours. While there will be some light rain at times in the area, these winds should help keep ceilings VFR, although a period of MVFR ceilings is possible early this evening in conjunction with the rain. Visibility should also remain VFR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday) .

The cloud remnants from the low pressure system from yesterday are still making their way across the Gulf of Alaska, Copper River Basin, Prince William Sound, Kenai and across Anchorage this evening. Weather observations from across much of the coastal area indicated steady light to moderate rain, and this should continue through tonight before rainfall dissipates by early Tuesday morning. However, western Kenai and Kodiak are expected to stay dry tonight before the next round of rainfall approaches these respective locations Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The next major circulation from the North Pacific is still trekking toward the western Gulf, which will skirt right along the south-southwest of Kodiak in the next couple days. A broad upper level ridge settling east-northeast of this deepening low will continue to build northwestward, and this will force the low pressure system to steer westward and away from the Gulf in the days ahead. A strong frontal boundary associated with the expected storm will dump a lot of rainfall over much of Southcentral Alaska through the middle of the week. Also, the onset of this next frontal zone will elevate winds and hazardous wave heights through the forecast period. Very strong and gusty winds will be felt over populated areas especially near passes and gaps, and over the Gulf, including Kodiak, between Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall, an extensive period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected, and this will be closely monitored the next few days.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A broad upper level trough lifting northward from the Gulf across Southwest Alaska tonight will produce just a few showers. Attention will quickly shift to a much more significant feature. A storm force low pushes towards the Southern Gulf tonight through Tuesday before quickly curving northwest towards Bristol Bay. This system becomes occluded early on, but will remain deep and cause significant winds and waves as the leading front reaches the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay Tuesday through Tuesday night. Gusty northeasterly flow will develop across all of Southwest Alaska Tuesday night and Wednesday, though the winds over the marine areas will be the strongest. Additionally, a band of light to moderate rainfall out ahead of the front will push across the Southwest beginning Wednesday followed by a more showery regime behind the front on Thursday. There is some uncertainty in the track of the low as it crosses into Bristol Bay Wednesday night. This will determine if Southwest Alaska (especially Bristol bay) will see a period of stronger easterly winds.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

Tonight and tomorrow will remain relatively calm across the Bering and Aleutians. Northerly winds will then strengthen as the Pacific low makes its way to Bristol Bay Tuesday night and Wednesday. The strongest winds will be confined to the eastern half of the Bering and Aleutians, with enhanced winds through bays and passes.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Thursday through Saturday).

Bering/Aleutians

A weakening area of low pressure in the eastern Bering will bring small craft winds to the area. A second and much stronger low will move northwestward across the AKPEN and into the Bering Thursday night into Friday morning. This low will bring widespread small craft winds with small areas of gale force winds possible. Confidence in the exact track of this system is low to moderate as there are discrepancies on the placement of the low center between models.

Gulf of Alaska

A strong area of low pressure will move across the western Gulf Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. Widespread gale force winds are likely, especially in the western Gulf. Confidence is lower on the timing of these winds as there are discrepancies between models on the placement of the low center. Another low will move into the Gulf Saturday afternoon, though confidence remains very low with regard to this low due to major discrepancies in the placement and intensity of the low center.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Thursday through Monday).

The pattern will be highly amplified on Thursday with a deep negatively-tilted upper level trough over the Bering/Aleutians and a strong upper level ridge over the west coast of Canada. The negative-tilt of this upper trough will be favorable for cyclogenesis as a strong area of low pressure moves into the western Gulf on Thursday and crosses the AKPEN into the Bering Sea on Friday. Confidence is low in the exact placement of this low due to discrepancies in guidance as this low crosses into the Bering. Once in the Bering, this low will gradually weaken through Sunday as the center of this low moves farther away from the core of the jetstream and loses synoptic support. Another strong low will move northeastward into the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday afternoon then will gradually weaken while remaining in the northern Gulf through Monday. Confidence with respect to this system is very low as there are significant discrepancies with the placement and intensity of this low.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm warning 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155. Gale warning 119 165 351 352. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CB/MO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KM/SEB MARINE/LONG TERM . ED

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OLSA2 - 9462450 - Nokolski, AK	16 mi	46 min	NNW 11 G 13	44°F			1015.4 hPa
NKLA2	17 mi	22 min	NNW 17 G 33	38°F			1010.3 hPa	33°F

Wind History for Nikolski, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Unalaska, Unalaska Airport, AK	155 mi	38 min	NNW 6	10.00 mi	Light Rain	44°F	39°F	85%	1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADU

Wind History from ADU (wind in knots)

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NW15 G23

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NW7 G31

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Tide / Current Tables for Adugak Islands, Umnak Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Sagak, Umnak Island, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK

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