Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nikolski, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 291205 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 405 AM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A 987mb low was observed over the Gulf of Alaska moving rapidly off to the southeast and away from Southcentral Alaska this morning. Surface high pressure is building in behind this low pressure across Southcentral with a cold air mass moving in. Strong gusty winds are being observed across the Matanuska Valley this morning due to a tight pressure gradient in place due to building surface high pressure inland and the departing low over the Gulf. Winds were also gusting as high as 50-55 mph this morning at Thompson Pass.

Cold northwesterly winds are bringing gusty winds to the normal gaps and passes in the area of the AKPEN this morning as cold air advection continues this morning. Upslope flow against the mountains is also allowing for some snow showers across the higher elevations and peaks.

A front was observed moving across the western Bering and Aleutians bringing rain showers to that part of the Aleutian Chain.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good agreement through Monday night.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions with gusty northerly winds through the TAF period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Strong offshore flow and gap winds will be the main story through Monday. The synoptic setup: an upper ridge building east across the mainland setting up favorable northerly flow aloft, cold advection in the lower elevations, and strengthening thermal and pressure gradients across Southcentral. This will result in generally brisk offshore and gap flows in many areas. The strongest of these flows are expected in the Thompson Pass/Valdez area, Copper River Delta, and the Matanuska Valley where winds are expected to hit warning levels of around 75 mph. These conditions are expected to develop this morning as a fairly strong short wave drops south across the area. This will be followed by increasing northerly jet support as the upper ridge builds east. Warning level winds are expected to continue into Monday afternoon before diminishing.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday) .

A quieter pattern will move into Southwest Alaska as high pressure begins to build across the region today after the snowfall that was seen the past few days. Clear skies in this pattern will help daytime temperatures for most areas reach the mid-20s today and Monday, with cloud-free conditions bringing low temperatures into the single digits for the next two nights.

By Tuesday morning, a weakening front over the eastern Bering will approach the Southwest coast, with the potential for scattered snow shower activity along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Little snow accumulation is expected with this system.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday) .

Heavy freezing spray will persists this morning over the eastern Bering as strong winds continue. Areas south of the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN can expect gusty winds through gap areas to calm down heading into this afternoon as the associated low systems moves out of the forecast area.

A front over the western Bering will strengthen as it moves into the eastern Bering for this afternoon. Gale force winds will persists with this system through Monday morning, when it begins to weaken and lift into the northern Bering. Widespread precipitation is expected with this system with snow eventually transitioning to rain across the Aleutians. The Pribilofs will remain just below freezing, so they should stay all snowfall as the front passes over them on Monday, with the potential for possible blowing snow. However, if their temperature do warm above freezing, they could see a mix of rain or snow, or all rain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians . A storm system will track across the western to central Bering on Sunday. There is uncertainty in the exact track of the low center, but high confidence in widespread small craft winds with gales likely near the low center. The eastern Bering will likely see minimal impacts from this, as most model solutions track the low to the northern Bering, or even into Russia. Forecast confidence for Monday/Tuesday drops significantly, although it doesn't look like any major storm systems will affect the region.

Gulf of Alaska . There is a high confidence in gap winds along the Gulf coast on Sunday. These will diminish by Monday and the overall weather pattern looks quiet.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Friday).

Guidance is consistent with the overall synoptic pattern on Sunday with an upper level trough over the Alaska mainland while upper level ridging slowly moves eastward across the central and eastern Bering. This will result in cold temperatures across the mainland. A high confidence exists with a warming trend in temperatures across the Alaska mainland in particular Southwest Alaska Sunday through Tuesday. However, there is low confidence with respect to the magnitude of the expected warm up as there are discrepancies between guidance with how fast this ridge is moving. The GFS appears to have the fastest bias as the GEM and ECMWF show the upper trough extending into the Ahklun Mountains while the GFS has the trough only extending to the eastern AKPEN. More significant differences between guidance arise on Wednesday with respect to the amplitude of the upper ridge over Southcentral Alaska. This means that there is a low confidence in the temperature forecast as the placement of this upper ridge affects the placement of the surface ridging and thus causing major discrepancies in the temperature forecast. One area of confidence for this period is the weather is expected to remain benign across Southcentral during this time as high pressure will be over the area. Significant discrepancies continue on Thursday and Friday and thus the forecast confidence remains very low for this period at this time.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High wind warning 111 and 131. MARINE . Gales 127 130 131 185 411-413. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . MV SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . RMC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . ED

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OLSA2 - 9462450 - Nokolski, AK	16 mi	54 min	ESE 21 G 25	36°F			1018.2 hPa
NKLA2	17 mi	32 min	ESE 32 G 47	31°F			1011.8 hPa	29°F

Wind History for Nikolski, AK

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SW9 G15

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NW24 G29

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SW6 G13

SW10 G13

S8 G11

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Unalaska, Unalaska Airport, AK	155 mi	28 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	34°F	23°F	64%	1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADU

Wind History from ADU (wind in knots)

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NW9 G22

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SE5

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Tide / Current Tables for Adugak Islands, Umnak Island, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Sagak, Umnak Island, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK

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