Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nikolski, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Our Bering Sea low has drifted slightly westward this morning.
Previously centered over the Pribilof Islands the low is now roughly 260 nautical miles to the west-southwest. Even with the westward jaunt the overall pattern remains the same. Smaller waves of low pressure continue to rotate through the base of the low, aided by a west-southwesterly upper-level jet directed into the Alaska Peninsula. Morning water vapor imagery depicts the current wave now tracking from the Alaska Peninsula into the Western Alaska Range. This wave is promoting isolated to scattered showers across much of the region. A second wave moves into Southwest Alaska later this evening/tonight and will maintain rain chances through Tuesday. Increasing southeasterly winds will also accompany the second wave tonight into Tuesday. Gusts will range from 15 to 25 mph for most areas, though winds coming out of the Kamishak Gap could gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph for Newhalen, Pedro Bay and Kokhanok.

The biggest question for today entails a low chance for isolated wet thunderstorms. The threat remains highly conditional on breaks in cloud cover allowing for building instability this afternoon and evening. The passage of the next wave of low pressure into Southwest Alaska will be timed favorably during peak daytime heating while also providing some upper-level lift. Currently, thinking is that the best chance for any thunderstorms will exist across the northern tier of the Kuskokwim Valley from Lime Village to Crooked Creek, to Aniak and Lower Kalskag, wrapping westward to just north of Kasigluk and Tuluksak.

Looking ahead, Wednesday has the potential to provide some relief from persistent rain across the region, as Tuesday's wave amplifies over the Gulf of Alaska and the next upper low moves into the western Bering. However, decreasing clouds may allow for stronger daytime heating and another threat for isolated wet thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.

-BL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the Gulf will remain in place through the middle of next week. This will continue to support unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska.

By midweek, the focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka and track eastward. Model guidance is now in better agreement, bringing the low across the Aleutian Chain before continuing into the Gulf of Alaska, remaining south of the mainland. Unsettled conditions will persist across the Aleutians as this system and its associated front progress eastward through the end of the week.

LM



AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong southeasterly winds are expected continue, though the winds will not be as strong as yesterday. The cloud deck is expected to drop to 4k feet early this morning before increasing to 6k feet by late morning. There is a chance for showers at higher elevations, likely not making it to the airport due to the dry surface. There is a slight chance that low level wind shear will occur overnight tonight into Tuesday morning.