Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nikolski, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Satellite imagery currently shows a North Pacific low south of the AK Pen this morning. As it moves northward through the day, its front crosses over the AK Pen later this morning and moves across southeast Bering Sea, Bristol Bay and the Southwest Alaska Mainland throughout the day. As it does, wind directions will change from east to northeast keeping offshore winds into Bristol Bay through this evening. These offshore winds will continue through Thursday afternoon before becoming more northerly in the evening and remaining as such for Friday. Rain will mix with snow across Southwest Alaska Mainland tomorrow evening into Friday morning as cooler air continues to filter into the region though snowfall accumulation of a trace to an inch is expected.

Simultaneously, the 972 mb low stays fairly compact keeping wind gusts strong across the Aleutians. After the front crosses into the Bering Sea today, it will stall and more northerly winds from King Cove west to Dutch Harbor can be expected from late this evening through Friday evening. A weak ridge builds over Adak during this time which will assist these strong wind gusts. These northerly winds, particularly through bays and passes, from Dutch Harbor eastward to King Cove have a 60% chance of exceeding 50 mph and a 30% to 50% chance of exceeding 60 mph late this evening into Friday afternoon. The low begins to move away from the AKPen and into the Gulf of Alaska Friday evening. In its wake, northerly winds persist over the Central Aleutians.

-Johnston

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A low in the Gulf of Alaska will keep scattered rainfall for Kodiak Island and the Southcentral Coast. Higher elevations will likely see snowfall with snow levels at 1500 to 2000 ft. For Southwest Alaska, gap winds over the Unalaska area and Alaska Peninsula quickly diminish as the low moves east by Saturday.
Ridging develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Uncertainty with the low's location is present on Saturday, with more or less rain and snow possible for the coast depending on the low's exact position. On Saturday night/Sunday morning, a frontal system moves into the Bering, leading to rain and elevated winds over parts of the Aleutians, but exactly which part is uncertain for now.
Southcentral dries out on Sunday as the low is absorbed by a new low moving into Southeast Alaska. A strong North Pacific low is poised to move south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Monday, which would bring gusty winds and rainfall to the Unalaska and Nikolski area. Precipitation returns to Southcentral as soon as Sunday night and additional moisture associated with the low will lift across the northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island Monday, producing moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

AVIATION

PANC... Patchy low stratus and fog are developing in Cook Inlet early this morning, and may periodically drift over the terminal through about late morning. By this afternoon, the combination of incoming high clouds and increasing northerly winds will very likely increase ceilings to above 5000 ft through tomorrow afternoon.

As a front moves into the northern Gulf this afternoon, strong southeasterly winds aloft will lead to downsloping and keep rain chances below 30% over the terminal. However, the combination of northerly winds at the surface and southeasterly winds aloft could lead to about a 30 to 50 percent chance of low level wind shear between this afternoon and tomorrow morning.