Monday, May10, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Unalaska, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 10:31PM Monday May 10, 2021 2:26 PM AKDT (22:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:13AMMoonset 7:02PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ171 Unalaska Bay- 346 Am Akdt Mon May 10 2021
Today..W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Unalaska, AK
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location: 53.89, -166.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 101228 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 428 AM AKDT Mon May 10 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The jet core is over the North Pacific underscoring the breadth of the broad upper level troughing. In the mid atmosphere there are closed lows near Akutan, St Paul, Attu Island and over the Kuril Islands. The remnants of a frontal boundary has ushered moisture into Southwest Alaska and portions of Southcentral. Meanwhile, the Bering has been relatively tame. While the remnants of upper lows are present on satellite imagery, sensible weather-wise the impacts have been minimal.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

For initialization purposes compared ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) imagery to the models, and without a doubt the models are off to a good start. Models continue to be in sync depicting the general synoptic pattern through 36 hours. Then the models still look decent over the Gulf Of Alaska and Southcentral . however divergence emerges over the NW Pacific which will impact the timing of the next low to impact Attu and Shemya.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions will persist. The "Turnagain Arm Wind" will develop again later today . peak . and diminish in the late evening. The Kenai radar has depicted isolated showers over Cook Inlet but nothing ominous for PANC.

PATK . For aviators flying to or near PATK the weather observations are limited/intermittent. Technicians will be en route today to investigate the matter. The 12z TAF is NIL.


SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Southerly flow over Southcentral Alaska continues today. What is a little different is that while there is a weak front bringing rain to Kodiak that stretches into the Gulf of Alaska, there is also a low that has developed along this front and will enter the Southern Gulf of Alaska this morning and make it to Prince William Sound tonight. This low will bring stronger winds to the north Gulf coast and a barrier jet that should be right at the Gale/Small Craft division point. Rain will be associated with this low and then rain showers (with snow showers at higher elevations) as the cold-core upper level low center moves over the area on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A rather stagnant pattern in place across Southwest Alaska will keep the region unsettled today through Tuesday. Rain showers will be the most widespread today and tonight before diminishing in coverage for the day Tuesday. Most of the rain shower activity will be confined to the mountainous terrain of the Kuskokwim Mountains and the western Alaska Range, though, a stray shower cannot be ruled out to drift off the mountains and affect valley locations Tuesday. Temperatures area wide are mainly expected to be in the low to mid 50s across interior locations with upper 40s to near 50 closer to coastal regions.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A rather large upper level low in place over the Bering extending into the North Pacific south of Dutch Harbor will continue to keep much of the area unsettled today and Tuesday with occasional rain showers. This is the same upper level low that has been in place for the past several days even past week as the stagnant pattern in place is showing no signs of letting up. As a result, expect continued low stratus and patchy fog for areas of the Bering and the Aleutian Islands today and Tuesday.

Then, a frontal system is expected to move into the Western Aleutians and western Bering Tuesday morning with small craft advisory level winds, waves 5 to 10 ft as well as periods of rain with the main front and then residual showers as the main low moves overhead of Shemya Tuesday night/early Wednesday. This front will then continue to slowly move eastward replacing the aforementioned low above.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday).

Bering: A North Pacific low moves over the Western Aleutians to the Central Bering by Friday. Confidence is good. Areas of small craft winds with the low through Friday, with local gale force winds developing over the Eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula channeled terrain for late Thursday into Friday. Seas to 15 feet near the Pribilofs Thursday.

Gulf of Alaska: Generally light winds over the Gulf through Friday. A front approaching Friday brings small craft winds with areas of gale force winds between the Shumagin Islands and Kodiak Island.

.Long Term Forecast (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday) .

Global ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in excellent agreement through the long term forecast period. Synoptically, a broad longwave trough over the western Bering will slowly move east, pushing a longwave ridge over the Alaska Mainland into western Canada. This pattern places southern Alaska in southerly to southwesterly flow aloft, which is conducive to widespread cloud cover and precipitation. At the surface, a broad region of low pressure is expected to remain over the central to eastern Bering Sea, while the system’s front, aided by upper level shortwaves, will move into the Alaska Mainland late Friday. The uncertainty in the forecast lies in whether or not a triple point low will develop along the front as it crosses the AKPen Friday morning. This will have implications for the timing and strength of winds for the Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys. Strong winds are also likely through Kamishak Gap and a barrier jet may set up along the southern Kenai Peninsula and north Gulf Coast. At this time, widespread rain and cloud cover appears likely across Alaska through Sunday as upper level shortwaves continue to move in from the southwest.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . KZ/CJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
UNLA2 - 9462620- Unalaska, AK 1 mi69 min SW 9.9 G 16 46°F 41°F1011.6 hPa

Wind History for Unalaska, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Unalaska, Unalaska Airport, AK1 mi31 minSSW 14 G 1810.00 miOvercast44°F35°F71%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADU

Wind History from ADU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E8E7E6E6E7W3E5CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W6W5CalmE5SW14
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1 day agoN3N6NW10NW6SE6E11SE6E6E9CalmS5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5Calm--
2 days ago--E6E6E4W3CalmE4E3E3E3CalmCalmS3SE3SW4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5SW7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Dutch Harbor, Alaska (expired 1988-12-31)
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Dutch Harbor
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Mon -- 04:50 AM AKDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:48 PM AKDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:19 PM AKDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:01 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.62.72.933.132.72.31.71.20.80.50.40.50.91.41.92.42.733.13.13

Tide / Current Tables for Kisselen Bay, Beaver Inlet, Unalaska Island, Alaska
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Kisselen Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:03 AM AKDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:34 AM AKDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM AKDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:56 PM AKDT     2.92 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:01 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.53.94.143.62.92.11.30.70.30.30.51.11.72.43.13.63.943.93.53.12.93.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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