Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for False Pass, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Afternoon showers persist across Southwest Alaska, while fog and low stratus have relented in the Bering Sea. A weak low south of the Aleutian Chain will bring additional showers to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Farther west, a front pushes into the Western Bering Sea.

For Southwest Alaska, continued onshore flow today will bring in cooler and more stable conditions, increasing potential evening fog and low stratus in coastal areas. Slight chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue Monday, continuing across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Western Alaska Range before a broad shortwave trough lifts through the region, which will promote widespread showers. Increased stability is expected to reduce the chances for thunderstorm development. Expect high temperatures near 60 degrees for much of Southwest Alaska, with slightly higher temperatures for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay. By late Tuesday, a low lifting up from the North Pacific will bring steady rainfall to the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay for Wednesday morning.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the front moving in from the west will bring southwesterly winds of 20-30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots and steady light to moderate rain. By Monday afternoon a strengthening low near the Kamchatka Peninsula could bring gales to the Western Bering Sea. Enhanced southerly gap winds appear likely as the front sweeps across the Aleutian chain as far east as Unalaska. Current guidance indicates weakening winds on Wednesday prior to the front reaching the Southwest mainland.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long range forecast for the region starts with a low in the northwestern Gulf of Alaska and another low in the western Bering Sea. Models are continuing to struggle with the placement and evolution of the low in the Gulf of Alaska. The GFS moves the low to the northeast into Canada by Friday afternoon, the Canadian shows the low tracking to the north and being absorbed into the aforementioned Bering low, and the ECMWF has the Gulf low moving due east then dissipating before reaching the Alaska Panhandle by Friday evening. Therefore, confidence on precipitation and sky conditions is still low. Towards the end of the longterm, a blocking high pressure pattern builds across the Copper River Basin and should promote a better chance for less clouds and drier conditions. With little mixing, air quality could become an issue in the region.

In the Bering Sea, the low pressure system generally remains over the Bering during most of the longterm while high pressure strengthens over the AK Mainland. The main uncertainty with the Bering low is in regards to how it interacts with surrounding shortwaves/lows and the speed of its surface front. The GFS solution would push the front quickly across SW AK and portions of Southcentral (with the bulk of precipitation across SW on Saturday morning), whereas the Canadian front is slower (with the bulk of precipitation across SW on Sunday morning). Nonetheless, expect an active pattern out west during the long term period.

-DD


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will generally persist throughout the TAF period. Uncertainty remains if the previous ~4.5kft marine ceilings will move back into ANC with tonight as much of the deck has eroded this afternoon. A shortwave trough lifting into Southcentral amidst southwest flow will bring lower ceilings and some rain into the area Monday morning, though cats are by and large expected to remain VFR to high-end MVFR.