Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for False Pass, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The front of a Bering Sea system approaches the southwest mainland, bringing snow and rain mainly to the Bristol Bay area and the Wood River Mountains late on Thursday. Colder air wrapping in behind the low will sweep light snow across the western Aleutians, however, in the eastern Aleutians, temperatures will likely remain high enough to support rain. Light amounts are expected for the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, with little to no snow accumulation. After the front passes, much of the area will remain in a cloudy, showery regime of mixed precipitation through the weekend. The responsible low pressure system will approach the western mainland and stall between the Pribilof Islands and Bristol Bay by Saturday morning. Widespread gales over water are expected to weaken as the front reaches the mainland. Gap winds won't be very strong across the Alaska Peninsula, though there may be some enhancement through channeled terrain.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...

The long term continues to be characterized by upper level troughing over the Bering, leading to an active weather pattern for the Aleutians and southern mainland Alaska. An upper level shortwave will traverse northwards across Southwest Alaska as a closed upper low slides eastward towards the eastern Bering by Monday morning. A surface low lifting from the AKPen into the eastern Bering looks to bring a wave of precipitation across Southwest and the AKPen through Monday, likely beginning as rain for lower elevations before transitioning over to snow as precipitation from this system tapers off. This low sends its front across the Gulf and Southcentral bringing rain to Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf coast and snow to higher elevations through Tuesday morning as the front pushes inland. Precipitation associated with this system is expected to be predominantly light, though locally moderate rainfall is possible along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound.

By Monday morning, an upper level low lifting out of the North Pacific supports a deepening surface low south of the western and central Aleutians. This low is expected to continue to track eastward south of the Aleutians and AKPen through the remainder of the forecast period. Some light precipitation is possible for the Aleutians as the system skirts to the south of the island chain through the early part of next week, though even a slight shift in the track to the south may limit precipitation. As the low nears the Gulf, the focus for Tuesday into Wednesday shifts towards another round of potentially heavier precipitation for the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and northern Gulf coast. The greatest chance for heavy rain and snow at elevation will likely again be along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound given the southeasterly flow in the Gulf. Northwesterly flow and cold air advection on the back side of the low may enhance northwesterly gap winds through the eastern Aleutians and AKPen Tuesday into Wednesday.

-JH

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period. Through Thursday afternoon, there is a small chance that ceilings could briefly drop to MVFR if a shower passes over the terminal. A weak Turnagain Arm wind is expected to set up also on Thursday afternoon, but this may fail to materialize if pressure gradients do not align correctly.