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PKZ758 NElson Lagoon To Cape Sarichef Out To 15 Nm- 336 Pm Akst Sat Dec 2 2023
.small craft advisory Sunday and Sunday night...
Tonight..N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sun..N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Sun night..N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Mon..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Mon night..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Tue through Thu..W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

FXAK68 PAFC 030137 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 437 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A tranquil weather pattern continues over many portions of Southcentral Alaska with mainly clear skies, patchy fog during the morning hours, and generally light winds. Wind gap prone locations (through the Copper River Delta, Valdez, and Thompson)
will continue to be breezy through tonight with an increase for Sunday. Seward through Resurrection Bay can expect an increase in winds for Sunday as well. Lingering showers will continue for Kodiak. For locations that had fog last night, it could return again tonight but confidence is low for the Anchorage area.
Temperatures will generally continue on the same trend until a deep low moving into the northern Gulf of Alaska from the North Pacific will bring increased clouds, precipitation and winds.

This next low pressure system is forecasted to move into the area Monday with a notable increase of precipitation and wind. The forecast at this time has the surface low trending more toward the east into Prince William Sound, decreasing overall snowfall totals. However, models continue to struggle on the exact track from run to run and strength of this next storm but generally agree on a northerly trajectory out of the northern Pacific and fairly good consensus toward the low moving into the northern Gulf by midweek. Small differences in the track of the storm as well as the strength of the storm will have implications that will cause a wide spread in potential precipitation and snowfall totals, especially for the eastern Kenai and western Prince William Sound. Warmer air is expected at the onset of precipitation with this system, but cold air will quickly follow.

rux

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...

A longwave trough extends across the Bering Sea this afternoon, with a surface low that earlier moved along the western Aleutians now beginning to cross the Chain into the North Pacific west of Adak. The low's front extends to the north and east almost out to the Pribilof Islands, with a new but weak low forming along the front between the central Aleutians and Pribilofs. Southwest is now stuck in a showery pattern for the time being as it sits under a shortwave ridge sandwiched in between systems to the north and south.

Across Southwest, intermittent snow showers will give way to yet another long duration, light snowfall event beginning later tonight into Sunday. A new band of snow should develop near a region of lift and convergence west of a trough moving over the eastern Bering Sea, roughly between Pilot Point up towards Togiak and Aniak and Bethel. The overall consensus for where this band will set up has shifted west, and the forecast has been updated to reflect this change, moving the axis of roughly 2 to 4 inches of accumulation through Monday towards Togiak and Bethel. Similar amounts are still likely along the AKPen, perhaps as much as 5 inches between Pilot Point and Port Heiden. Snow should gradually diminish during the day on Monday as the trough axis begins to stretch and shear apart, perhaps lingering a bit longer into Monday night along the AKPen. Colder air will filter in from the north between Monday and Tuesday as cloud cover also begins to decrease, with lows Tuesday morning dropping back to the 0s to lower 10s across much of Southwest.

Out across the Bering, the low currently passing near Adak will continue to move south and away from the Aleutian Chain through Sunday, although gusty winds mostly in small craft range will linger near the central Aleutians through Sunday evening. From Sunday night into Monday, a fast moving trough and frontal boundary will progress east into the western Bering, ushering another round of gusty winds up to gale force along the western Aleutians through Monday evening. Meanwhile, northerly flow and cold air advection will pick up towards the southern AKPen as a strong low moves into the Gulf. Gale force winds will pick up out of gaps and passes along and south of the AKPen, persisting into Tuesday as cold northerly flow continues. A low moving out into the far northern Bering from the north end of Kamchatka will push yet another fast moving front into the northern Bering on Tuesday.

-AS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Wednesday through Saturday

The beginning of the forecast works well with deterministic models, but gets sustained moving into ensemble models through the end of the period. The longwave trough reorients from the Russian Chukchi Sea across Western Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska and the Eastern North Pacific. Increased amplitude with the ridge over the Russian Far East continues. A moderately strong shortwave rotates over the Eastern Bering and Western Alaska continuing Southeast through the weekend, with a number of weaker shortwaves to follow. A closed low forms over Southwest Alaska for Friday on.
The surface low in the Gulf of Alaska weakens but lingers through Saturday.

While most of the heavier precipitation deflects into Southeast Alaska through Saturday, Southcentral areas will start with snow over most areas, with mixed rain and snow or all rain along the Gulf coastal zones. Gustiest winds begin across the Bering and along the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island, with possible gales through the Barren Islands Wednesday, diminishing Thursday. Winds work their way across the Gulf with possible gales developing over the Central Gulf late friday into Saturday. Gusty winds along the North Gulf Coast over towards Kodiak Island through the weekend.
in the Far West, an approaching North Pacific low brings locally heavy precipitation and gusty winds approaching gale force over the Western Aleutians by Saturday

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...There is a chance for some fog around the airport again early Sunday morning. For fog to happen, the skies will need to clear out well. While this clearing should happen by early morning, it does not guarantee fog development.

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Cape Mordvinof
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:44 AM AKST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:01 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:57 PM AKST     7.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:51 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:33 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:24 PM AKST     3.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:18 PM AKST     4.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Mordvinof, Unimak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Cape Sarichef
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:29 AM AKST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:01 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:07 PM AKST     5.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:51 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:37 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:09 PM AKST     3.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:28 PM AKST     3.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Sarichef, Unimak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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