Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ketchikan, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:45AMSunset 4:11PM Friday December 13, 2019 7:18 PM PST (03:18 UTC) Moonrise 5:53PMMoonset 10:38AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 312 Pm Akst Fri Dec 13 2019
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. NEar ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. Rain showers in the evening.
Sat..SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late.
Sun..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ketchikan, AK
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location: 55.22, -132.1     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 132243 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 143 PM AKST Fri Dec 13 2019

SHORT TERM. /Through Sunday night/ A low over the western gulf will move NW to the Kenai Peninsula by late tonight while weakening. A complex low pressure area will move E into the western gulf Sun. An occluded front will move E into the central gulf Sun, then reach the outer coast of SE AK by late Sun night. Model agreement was fairly good on the larger scale features, but there were some differences with the smaller scale that have low predictability beyond about 36 hrs. Did make some forecast adjustments, which will be described below.

For tonight into Sat night, the showers going on will gradually decrease over most of the area tonight. Along the NE gulf coast, onshore flow will last longer, so they will see the diminishing trend start later in the night. One adjustment was to decrease the mention of snow with the showers for most places tonight. While temps may get cold enough in some areas that would normally support snow, these lower temps would occur in the breaks between showers. Did increase the mention of patchy fog given how moist the environment will be in the lower levels, and winds will be diminishing. Think the most fog will occur Sat night when the most cloud breaks will occur and winds will be at their lightest.

For Sun into Sun night, did adjust temps upward some, especially for Sun night. As occluded front approaches, warmer air will gradually move in. With the higher temps, especially Sun night, decreased the mention of snow especially across the central panhandle. Temps will likely be steady or slowly rise a bit overnight Sun as the main precip arrives with the front. Think any accumulating snow will be limited to the far northern area and Hyder Sun night, and based on the front weakening as it moves onshore, snow amounts will likely be on the light side through late Sun night. Still expect gale force winds with the front over the gulf Sun into sun night, with the strongest winds over the inner channels likely to be in the more E-W oriented channels.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Friday night/ . The extended range begins with an upper ridge just E of the Panhandle while a large trough with multiple lows moves across the western gulf. By Monday, the low in the gulf swings a front through SE AK pushing the ridge to the east. Flow will become onshore next week as several systems rotate around a parent low in the Aleutians bringing multiple rounds of precipitation to the Panhandle. By the end of the period the parent low moves eastward into the Gulf keeping Southeast Alaska in an unsettled weather pattern. There are still model discrepancies for the timing and placement of each system moving rotating into the region. What does appear to be relatively certain is wet weather will persist through most of the coming week.

Temperatures will moderate some on Monday as a front approaches the region. Overall temperatures next week should remain around to just above average for this time of year.

No major changes were made to the long range forecast as it is hard for models to pin down the exact timing of each system rotating into the region next week. A front moves in on Monday increasing the chance for precipitation. P-type could be an issue for areas in the Northern Panhandle as colder air at the surface may be hard to scour out by the time the precipitation moves in. For the rest of next week, current thinking is that the far northern Panhandle has the best chance at seeing frozen precipitation, especially along the highways. The southern Panhandle is expected to see predominantly rain. Fortunately, several days remain before this becomes an issue with impacts on the public, so it can be studied closely by multiple shifts.

Overall long range forecast confidence is average.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-053.



RWT/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GIXA2 19 mi27 min ESE 13 G 17 41°F 1013.5 hPa39°F
KEXA2 24 mi27 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 39°F 1015.8 hPa37°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 26 mi49 min Calm G 1.9 40°F 45°F1016.3 hPa
SLXA2 26 mi36 min ENE 1 G 2.9 40°F 1013.1 hPa39°F
MRYA2 49 mi27 min ESE 4.1 G 6 41°F 38°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 61 mi79 min 45°F 47°F10 ft1015.4 hPa (+0.7)
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 66 mi69 min SE 7 G 12 41°F 1014.7 hPa37°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK23 mi86 minS 510.00 miLight Rain39°F37°F93%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE5SE6S4S5S4S5S4S5S3SE5SE4S3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmN3W5S5SE4S5Calm
1 day agoS8S8S6S7S6S6S73S54S5S6S5SE8SE7S7SE8SE7S4S5SE5S4S5SE4
2 days agoS6S7S9SE9S6S5S6SE7SE10S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska
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Lancaster Cove
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:22 AM AKST     14.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM AKST     3.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:06 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:38 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:01 PM AKST     17.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:18 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:53 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:35 PM AKST     -2.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1314.614.412.59.56.44.13.44.5710.413.816.217.216.213.49.24.50.5-1.9-2.1-0.23.27.3

Tide / Current Tables for Niblack Anchorage, Moira Sound, Alaska
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Niblack Anchorage
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:22 AM AKST     14.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM AKST     3.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:05 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:37 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:01 PM AKST     16.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:19 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:54 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:39 PM AKST     -2.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.514.113.912.29.46.44.23.44.36.810.113.315.716.715.813.194.50.6-1.8-2.1-0.42.96.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.