Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ketchikan, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 101417 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 617 AM AKDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SHORT TERM. It has been a rather wet and windy night for much of the northern panhandle. The low that brought the wind and rain yesterday is currently just NE of Yakutat and is moving into the southern Yukon weakening as it goes. Meanwhile, the reduced, but still strong SW onshore flow that brought the rain and wind to the northern panhandle last evening is still ongoing. Gusts up to 39 kt were observed at some locations, and 25 to 35 kt winds are still blowing in Lynn Canal, Cross Sound, and Stephens Passage right now due to the strong Southerly pressure gradiant. Rainfall has totaled up to 1 to 3 inches over the last 12 hours. There is currently a band of rain extended from Cross Sound over to Gustavus and into Juneau that has persisted for most of the night though the southern edge has moved north of Angoon and Sitka.

The first half of the short range features a diminishing trend in rain and wind as what is left of the current system weakens and move off to the NE. Rain and winds will diminish by Mon evening as the strong SW flow continues to diminish in intensity. However, winds in Lynn Canal, Haines, and Skagway may last into Mon night as lingering southerly pressure gradient persists across the north. Extended the higher winds for that area accordingly. Overall guidance was in decent agreement so mainly focused on local effects for winds and qpf.

Past Monday night, the forecast noticeably quiets down with lighter onshore flow as a weak ridge begins to build in the eastern gulf. Showers will still be persistent but much more scattered and weaker then they were on Mon. Winds will also have quieted down as pressure gradients across the panhandle slacken off. Overall changes were minor and mainly featured some local effect changes for wind direction. Favored GFS and Nam for any overall updates.

LONG TERM. /Wednesday morning through Sunday night/ . Much quieter weather in the long range forecast period after the recent strong summer storm has swept through the area. The extended range begins with a weakening upper low located over the north Gulf Coast and WNW upper flow across Southeast Alaska. As the low gets ejected to the southeast, a brief ridge will move in and cause northwesterly flow Thursday afternoon/evening. This will leave us in the middle ground when it comes to chances for precip through mid week. As a surface ridge shifts to the east Thursday night, drier conditions will return briefly, but the break will not last long. By Friday night, a triple point will develop along a frontal boundary over the south-central gulf and spread precipitation in over the southern Panhandle by late Friday night. rain will spread north through the day Saturday, reaching the northeast Gulf Coast by Sunday morning. Thank goodness, we will once again have a weekend with no fire weather concerns. Through the long range, winds over the Gulf and inner channels will not be impactful, especially after the big blow on Sunday/Sunday night.

GFS and ECMWF used for updates to the long range grids. Forecast confidence is average trending below average.

HYDROLOGY. Overnight rainfall caused several spikes in northern rivers and streams. Mendenhall Lake and River in particular rose up above minor flood stage around 330 am and is still going up. It is currently at 9.2 ft as of 5 am. A flood advisory is up until noon for that river system. The Taiya River also rose rather rapidly overnight and also passed minor flood stage around 4 am through the rate of rise has slowed since then. It is currently just above minor flood stage of 16.5 ft as of 5 am. There is also a flood advisory out until noon for this river system as well. Other rivers and streams in the north did display spikes overnight, but have since crested either below or just above bankfull stage and shown definite decreasing trends. As such decided to cancel the flood watch that was out for the Juneau zone as rainfall rate continue to decrease.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Areal Flood Advisory until noon AKDT today for AKZ018-025. Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ019-025. Strong Wind until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ018. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ012-022. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-031-032-041>043-051>053.



EAL/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GIXA2	19 mi	18 min	SW 1.9 G 7	57°F			1020.1 hPa	51°F
KEXA2	24 mi	18 min	ESE 6 G 12	57°F			1022.4 hPa	48°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	26 mi	42 min	SE 9.9 G 13		57°F		1023.1 hPa
SLXA2	26 mi	17 min	SSE 8.9 G 13	56°F			1019.9 hPa	50°F
MRYA2	49 mi	18 min	S 1 G 5.1	58°F				53°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy	61 mi	30 min	W 5.8 G 9.7	55°F	56°F	12 ft	1023.6 hPa (-0.3)
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	66 mi	20 min	SSE 4.1 G 6	55°F			1020.9 hPa	55°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK	23 mi	37 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	57°F	48°F	74%	1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Niblack Anchorage, Moira Sound, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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