Monday, March8, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ketchikan, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:27PM Monday March 8, 2021 8:10 AM PST (16:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:59AMMoonset 12:42PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 348 Am Akst Mon Mar 8 2021
Today..SE wind 10 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tonight..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the evening.
Tue..NW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft.
Thu..NW wind 20 kt becoming se. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..S gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ketchikan, AK
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location: 55.22, -132.1     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 081503 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 603 AM AKST Mon Mar 8 2021

SHORT TERM. /Through Tuesday night/ . Yesterday evening, a band of light to moderate precipitation developed over the central panhandle due to an area of mid-level vorticity depicted fairly well in the models. The area of precipitation set up just a touch farther north than expected, with Angoon receiving the lion's share of the precipitation last night, all falling as snow there. The snow will be ending soon in Angoon as the band moves south. Temperatures started above freezing there and lowered to freezing overnight. With about 0.15 inches of liquid so far, I would not be surprised to get reports in the morning of an inch or two of snow on the ground. Currently the center of the precip band is moving through Sitka, where a mix of rain and snow are falling. This area of showers will continue to move south Monday and Monday night through the central panhandle, dissipating completely by Tuesday.

In other overnight news, the small craft strength outflow event that has been predicted for several days started in earnest. Sustained north winds in Lynn Canal have increased to around 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scull Island is also experiencing almost 30 kt winds prompting a Small Craft Advisory for Stephens Passage this morning. Winds are expected to ease a bit in Stephens Passage later this afternoon, but remain small craft strength in Lynn Canal into the overnight hours. Models show much of the cold air at 850 mb and 925mb being directed east into Northern Canada rather than south, so although temperatures will cool with the northerly outflow, it will not get anomalously cold. Tuesday morning will be the coolest morning of the week. Freezing spray remains a possibility for Lynn Canal Monday night.

As the precipitation band from today moves to the south and offshore flow with the outflow event increases, drier weather will prevail and skies will begin to clear Monday and Tuesday. Look for partly cloudy to mostly clear skies over the northern half of the Panhandle by Monday morning and over the southern half by Tuesday morning. Bottom line, Tuesday will be a dry, sunny day for the majority of SE AK.

Forecast changes were minimal for the morning package, just fine tuning the position and strength of the precip band and the outflow winds. The NAM had the best representation of the band so tilted the forecast that way. Overall confidence in the forecast is average.

LONG TERM. /Wednesday through Monday/ . Guidance has slowed the arrival of the next weather system, leaving the panhandle mostly dry until Wednesday afternoon. Chances of precipitation will linger Thursday and then a weak atmospheric river moves south of the Panhandle Thursday night into Friday bringing back widespread precipitation. The GFS/ECMWF models agree that an upper level trough builds Saturday resulting in below normal temperatures Saturday evening into Sunday.

The main story for the long term forecast will be precipitation amounts and precipitation type. For Wednesday evening, a high probability for accumulating snowfall for most of the panhandle based on model QPF, temperature trends, and MOS/NBM guidance. Winds expected to pick up with this front, and small craft advisories can be anticipated along the outer coast and inner channels. Moderate uncertainty for timing of the front.

The next system bringing precipitation is associated with a weak atmospheric river to the south on Friday. Widespread precipitation expected, except less likely for Yakutat as guidance is adjusting this system further south. Highest precipitation totals on Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan, and Hyder with a chance of snow north of Petersburg. With the current track of this low pressure, a tight northerly pressure gradient would build in the Northern Lynn Canal, creating winds up to 30kts. Overall confidence remains moderate for temperature changes, but below average on which locations will see the most precipitation through the week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-041>043-051-052.



BFL/KRT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GIXA2 19 mi48 min E 5.1 G 7 38°F 1014.5 hPa36°F
KEXA2 24 mi48 min Calm G 1 37°F 1015.4 hPa31°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 26 mi71 min Calm G 1 37°F 43°F1017.8 hPa (+0.0)
SLXA2 26 mi47 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 37°F 1014.4 hPa34°F
SPXA2 28 mi46 min E 1.9 G 4.1 1015.1 hPa
SXXA2 28 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 37°F 1015.6 hPa35°F
MRYA2 49 mi49 min N 5.1 G 8 39°F 1016.3 hPa35°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 66 mi61 min SE 5.1 G 7 39°F 1016.5 hPa39°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK23 mi18 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F34°F100%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmNW4N3SE9SE10SE7SE4CalmCalmS4CalmCalmS3W3W4SW3CalmS4CalmCalmS3SE3Calm
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N3------NW5--W65
2 days agoSE9SE9E7SE4SE4N9NW10NW8NW6SW3CalmS4SE6S3S4S3CalmSE3CalmSE5S5S4S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska
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Lancaster Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:18 AM AKST     5.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:59 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM AKST     13.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:42 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:29 PM AKST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:11 PM AKST     12.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.86.55.8678.810.812.513.513.512.410.27.44.52.2112.24.36.99.311.21211.6

Tide / Current Tables for Niblack Anchorage, Moira Sound, Alaska
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Niblack Anchorage
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:22 AM AKST     5.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM AKST     13.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:43 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:33 PM AKST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:11 PM AKST     11.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.76.55.85.96.98.510.412131311.99.97.24.52.210.9246.58.910.711.511.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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