Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ketchikan, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 132243 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 143 PM AKST Fri Dec 13 2019

SHORT TERM. /Through Sunday night/ A low over the western gulf will move NW to the Kenai Peninsula by late tonight while weakening. A complex low pressure area will move E into the western gulf Sun. An occluded front will move E into the central gulf Sun, then reach the outer coast of SE AK by late Sun night. Model agreement was fairly good on the larger scale features, but there were some differences with the smaller scale that have low predictability beyond about 36 hrs. Did make some forecast adjustments, which will be described below.

For tonight into Sat night, the showers going on will gradually decrease over most of the area tonight. Along the NE gulf coast, onshore flow will last longer, so they will see the diminishing trend start later in the night. One adjustment was to decrease the mention of snow with the showers for most places tonight. While temps may get cold enough in some areas that would normally support snow, these lower temps would occur in the breaks between showers. Did increase the mention of patchy fog given how moist the environment will be in the lower levels, and winds will be diminishing. Think the most fog will occur Sat night when the most cloud breaks will occur and winds will be at their lightest.

For Sun into Sun night, did adjust temps upward some, especially for Sun night. As occluded front approaches, warmer air will gradually move in. With the higher temps, especially Sun night, decreased the mention of snow especially across the central panhandle. Temps will likely be steady or slowly rise a bit overnight Sun as the main precip arrives with the front. Think any accumulating snow will be limited to the far northern area and Hyder Sun night, and based on the front weakening as it moves onshore, snow amounts will likely be on the light side through late Sun night. Still expect gale force winds with the front over the gulf Sun into sun night, with the strongest winds over the inner channels likely to be in the more E-W oriented channels.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Friday night/ . The extended range begins with an upper ridge just E of the Panhandle while a large trough with multiple lows moves across the western gulf. By Monday, the low in the gulf swings a front through SE AK pushing the ridge to the east. Flow will become onshore next week as several systems rotate around a parent low in the Aleutians bringing multiple rounds of precipitation to the Panhandle. By the end of the period the parent low moves eastward into the Gulf keeping Southeast Alaska in an unsettled weather pattern. There are still model discrepancies for the timing and placement of each system moving rotating into the region. What does appear to be relatively certain is wet weather will persist through most of the coming week.

Temperatures will moderate some on Monday as a front approaches the region. Overall temperatures next week should remain around to just above average for this time of year.

No major changes were made to the long range forecast as it is hard for models to pin down the exact timing of each system rotating into the region next week. A front moves in on Monday increasing the chance for precipitation. P-type could be an issue for areas in the Northern Panhandle as colder air at the surface may be hard to scour out by the time the precipitation moves in. For the rest of next week, current thinking is that the far northern Panhandle has the best chance at seeing frozen precipitation, especially along the highways. The southern Panhandle is expected to see predominantly rain. Fortunately, several days remain before this becomes an issue with impacts on the public, so it can be studied closely by multiple shifts.

Overall long range forecast confidence is average.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-053.



RWT/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GIXA2	19 mi	27 min	ESE 13 G 17	41°F			1013.5 hPa	39°F
KEXA2	24 mi	27 min	WNW 2.9 G 4.1	39°F			1015.8 hPa	37°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	26 mi	49 min	Calm G 1.9	40°F	45°F		1016.3 hPa
SLXA2	26 mi	36 min	ENE 1 G 2.9	40°F			1013.1 hPa	39°F
MRYA2	49 mi	27 min	ESE 4.1 G 6	41°F				38°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy	61 mi	79 min		45°F	47°F	10 ft	1015.4 hPa (+0.7)
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	66 mi	69 min	SE 7 G 12	41°F			1014.7 hPa	37°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK	23 mi	86 min	S 5	10.00 mi	Light Rain	39°F	37°F	93%	1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Niblack Anchorage, Moira Sound, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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