Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ketchikan, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak67 pajk 232204 afdajk southeast alaska forecast discussion national weather service juneau ak 204 pm akdt Fri aug 23 2019 Short term through Monday night upper trof will move E across the area tonight, followed by another shortwave trof that will move into the northern gulf late tonight and sat. This shortwave trof should move through SE ak Sat night and early sun. Models are in better agreement on an upper shortwave over SW ak that will interact with another shortwave to the s. The northern shortwave will move into the gulf Sun night then across the gulf mon-mon night. The southern shortwave should move across the NE pac sun night and mon, then turn NE toward southern SE ak Mon night. There are some small model differences on the exact timing of both shortwaves, but trend has been to slow the progress of the northern shortwave, which may allow for potential phasing of the streams over the gulf. This will impact how strong a low will get as it moves NE into the eastern gulf Mon and Mon night. For tonight, a weakening low will move across the southern area, while a weakening remnant of the occluded front moves across the northern panhandle. This will keep things wet tonight, especially along the coast mtns. Still some SCA level winds on the SE and w sides of the low center, affecting the SE gulf and southern inner channels. A narrow band of SCA level winds just outside cross sound should weaken early this evening. Large (10+ ft) seas over the gulf will gradually subside from the NW later tonight, but they will be high enough to keep SCA for the areas outside the stronger wind areas through the night. For Sat and Sat night, as next shortwave trof moves into the northern gulf, will see some showers develop over the gulf and move onshore SE ak. It looks like the most showers will be along the coast mtns though with deeper upslope flow. Was thinking about potential for some tstms, but not impressed with the mid-level lapse rates, even though the CAPE might suggest some thunder. The low level convergence looks meager as well. Later shifts will need to monitor to see if better low level convergence develops across the NE gulf, which could be enough for a few tstms despite the mid-level lapse rates.

For sun-sun night, upper ridging will build across the eastern gulf and SE ak well ahead of the shortwaves over the W gulf and ne pac. This will gradually decrease the showers over SE ak during the period. Some precip could begin to move into the s-central gulf later Sun night, as a low develops to the SW of that area in response to the shortwaves moving in. For mon-mon night, this is where the changes were most notable. Confidence is increasing that a low moves into the eastern gulf and a trailing occluded front moves in from the w. Looking like an increasing threat for more significant rain, as an atmospheric river will accompany this system. Looks especially wet for the southern area where highest ivt and pw values will be. Have raised pops up to likely for most of the area during this period, and later shifts will likely raise them further as timing track of the main features gets better. All of the precip over the past several days, and upcoming events, should at least diminish any remaining fire weather issues, and for now, decrease the most adverse drought effects. Long term Tuesday through Friday night ... Upper trough will sweep through SE ak on Tuesday. The pattern aloft remains progressive with another ridge over southeast alaska Friday night into Saturday. The pattern aloft will result in unsettled weather at the surface. After an early week front and associated heavy rain, pop diminishes somewhat but never drops below chance levels until Thursday night and then only for the southern half of the panhandle. Warmer low level air does move in from the south in the second half of the week and daytime highs will creep back up to the high 60s or low 70s by the end of the next work week. Ajk watches warnings advisories Public... None. Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz022-041>043-051>053. Rwt fritsch visit us at http:

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GIXA2	19 mi	26 min	ESE 13 G 17	57°F			999.8 hPa	55°F
KEXA2	24 mi	26 min	ESE 15 G 22	55°F			1002.3 hPa	52°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	26 mi	50 min	SE 8 G 11	57°F	57°F		1002.5 hPa
SLXA2	26 mi	25 min	S 8.9 G 14	58°F			999.7 hPa	54°F
MRYA2	49 mi	26 min	S 5.1 G 15	55°F				54°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy	61 mi	98 min	SSE 16 G 19	56°F	55°F	4 ft	1001.2 hPa (-0.8)
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	66 mi	28 min	SSE 15 G 20	57°F			998.7 hPa	54°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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SE17 G25

SE16 G23

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SE4

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NW2 G5

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NW8 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK	23 mi	3.8 hrs	SE 15	10.00 mi	Overcast	57°F	55°F	96%	1002.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)

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SE19 G31

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Tide / Current Tables for Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Niblack Anchorage, Moira Sound, Alaska

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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