Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ketchikan, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 161330 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 530 AM AKDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SHORT TERM. /Through Fri night/ A gale force front is approaching the panhandle today. Some rain bands are already effecting the panhandle from Wrangell and Klawock northward and westward. Meanwhile the SE winds ahead of the front are starting to increase along the outside waters of the gulf this morning. Inner channel winds are mostly low, but some places like northern Lynn Canal are seeing 20 kt southerlies this morning.

Main change for the short range period is in the structure of the system that will be effecting the area through Fri. Guidance is finally in better agreement about what is expected from the triple point low that forms just W of Haida Gwaii later today. For the most part they have abandon idea of a stronger compact low that forms along the front then drifts northward, in favor of a weaker wave along the front. This doesn't really change the resulting winds and rain forecast except for wind directions in the SE Gulf on Fri. Still expecting gusts to around 40 mph to occur along the southern outer coast and southern panhandle late tonight into Fri. As well as gale force winds for the outside waters of the gulf this afternoon into tonight. While the rains will effect most of the panhandle, but the higher amounts (around 0.5 to 1 inch) will be along the outer coast and southern panhandle.

Fri into Fri night features the northern panhandle starting to dry out as the low center of the system transitions to just W of Haida Gwaii. This results in offshore flow developing for the north. Expect drier conditions and more north and east flow through the northern inner channels at that time.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through Wednesday night/ . This extended range forecast begins with a filling upper level low over Haida Gwaii and situated at the base of a very broad upper trough that covers the eastern two thirds of the Gulf of Alaska. Upstream to the west, a pronounced upper ridge extends from the north Pacific, across the Aleutians and well into the Bering Sea. Finally, a second upper trough lies west of the dateline. All three of these features will be progressive, with the upper ridge arriving over Southeast Alaska Sunday night, and the second upper trough/low arriving over the central Gulf Monday night. At that time, the next ridge/trough pair will be located over the Bering and west of the dateline again as the high amplitude Autumn upper level pattern continues.

At the surface, the vertical reflection of the upper low over Haida Gwaii will be filling, but the total circulation will still encompass the entire Gulf. This low will wind up getting ejected to the southeast Saturday night. Residual shower activity will persist over much of the Panhandle through the weekend, however the northeast Gulf coast should remain dry from Saturday through Sunday afternoon. The next front will press across the Gulf Sunday night with rain arriving along the outer coast from Yakutat to the Dixon Entrance by early Monday morning. While it is still quite a few days in the future, long range models are depicting this front to be fairly strong and could feature heavy rain across all of Southeast Alaska on Monday night. The current forecast features high end small craft winds over the Gulf with this front, but latest model data suggests that those winds will need to be increased to gale force. Appropriate adjustments will be made Thursday night if models remain consistent.

Daytime highs for the coming week will be seasonable, perhaps running a degree or two above normal for mid September with the same for overnight lows. Given this, there is still no mention of snow at lower elevations, but the time will come soon when a fresh dusting of snow will appear on the mountains. Still, don't look for snow near sea level until we are into October. -Fritsch

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ023-027. Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ028. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052-310. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-036-053.



EAL/Fritsch

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GIXA2	19 mi	23 min	ESE 16 G 21	51°F			1009.9 hPa	47°F
KEXA2	24 mi	23 min	ESE 6 G 8.9	52°F			1011.6 hPa	47°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	26 mi	47 min	ESE 11 G 16	51°F	55°F		1014.3 hPa
SLXA2	26 mi	22 min	ESE 11 G 17	51°F			1010.7 hPa	45°F
SPXA2	28 mi	22 min	ESE 8 G 14	52°F			1010.8 hPa	48°F
SXXA2	28 mi	22 min	ESE 8.9 G 18	51°F			1011.8 hPa	48°F
MRYA2	49 mi	23 min	SE 8 G 14	52°F			1013.2 hPa	47°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy	61 mi	35 min	SE 19 G 23	54°F	53°F	5 ft	1011.3 hPa (-3.0)
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	66 mi	25 min	SE 15 G 25	50°F				50°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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NW4 G7

NW5 G9

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W8 G11

NW2 G8

NW5 G9

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NW2 G5

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SE17 G21

SE13 G17

SE12 G16

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SE12 G15

SE9 G12

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SE7 G14

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SE4 G8

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NW6 G10

NW6 G12

NW3 G6

N2 G6

N2

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NW1 G5

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK	23 mi	42 min	SE 13 G 18	10.00 mi	Overcast	51°F	47°F	86%	1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)

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SE13 G18

1 day ago

N9

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SE15 G22

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NW7

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Tide / Current Tables for Lancaster Cove, Cholmondeley Sound, Alaska

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