Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ketchikan, AK

SHORT TERM
THROUGH SUNDAY.

The lingering showers this evening will continue to diminish as ridging sets up in the eastern Gulf, bringing a drier and sunnier day on Saturday across much of the panhandle. Light winds, clearing skies, and the ridge sitting just offshore brings potential for some fog and low stratus overnight. Areas across the panhandle south of Juneau will see some patchy fog overnight and into the early morning, clearing as the sun rises. From Yakutat down into Cross Sound and Icy Strait will be some higher potential for low clouds overnight, with a marine layer expecting to form just offshore of the NE coast down into the Cross Sound area. The ridge offshore will be keeping this low stratus layer across the area into the morning, restricting visibility for vessels on the water early in the morning and in some of the inland areas on Chichagof Island.

This drier weather will end after Saturday, as a front approaches from the west overnight into Sunday. This gale force front will push eastward over the area through the day Sunday, bringing elevated SE to S winds and some light to moderate precipitation as it passes through. Some areas along the outer coastline will see heavy precipitation during the day, particularly along the NE coastline around Yakutat, which is expected to see times of up to 0.1 - 0.15 inch per hour rates in the afternoon and evening. This front is expected to bring largely below 1 inch of precipitation in 24 hours for most of the panhandle, with the NE coastline from Yakutat down to Cross Sound expecting 1 to 2 inches overall during the day Saturday.


LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

The front will gradually weaken over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and southeast Alaska by Monday with winds generally diminishing, however with the ensembles generally keeping a broad upper low over the eastern Bering Sea, the eastern Gulf of Alaska and Southeast Alaska remains in a general zonal west to southwesterly upper flow through much of next week. This means that the most likely scenario for our region is periods of rain associated with hard to time weak amplitude shortwave troughs moving through. We are not biting off on the GFS outlying solution of a stronger surface reflection (low pressure system) genning up over the northeastern Gulf midweek, but overall a general pattern of periodic rains and cooler temperatures (slightly below seasonal averages) can be expected through late next week. 05/Garmon

AVIATION
Other than some passing showers across Southeast Alaska, conditions are generally VFR. A ridge building in will lead to decreasing rain chances through this evening. Southeast/southwest winds near 15 kts have been occuring near the PAGY and PAHN region, and they should decrease after sunset. Fog development across the area looks possible after 10Z with the ridge. This will likely result in LIFR VIS for PAYA, PAGS, and PAPG. It is possible that lower clouds develop elsewhere, but confidence in areal coverage is low. Any fog that does develop will dissipate with daytime heating through Saturday morning.

A low pressure system over British Colombia could lead to some low- end rain chances through Saturday morning with MVFR CIGS for the eastern side of the Panhandle. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

Today saw probably the overall lightest winds we have seen across the area in quite a while (speaking for the entire WFO Juneau marine forecast area), with 10 kts or less overall with the exception of Taiya Inlet where they are getting a light seabreeze today at 10 to 15 kts from the southwest. Expect pretty much the same tomorrow as the high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and Southeast Alaska weakens. We will probably see a bit more marine layer fog form up late tonight into tomorrow morning, particularly for areas around Yakutat, Icy Strait, and Frederick Sound. Late tomorrow, we will be watching the low currently over the central Aleutians (around 974 mb) lift slowly northward, with a gale force front extending east into the northwest to central Gulf moving up from the southwest. That front will bring a period of gale conditions (35-45kt) to the northern and eastern Gulf Sunday through early Monday before dissipating. While we will see an increase in the pressure gradient along the outer coast of SE Alaska, we don't expect a big jump in winds for the inner channels of SE Alaska, with generally a period of 15-25 kt winds expected late Sunday into early Monday. 05/Garmon

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.