Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 222223 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 223 PM AKDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SHORT TERM. /Through Friday night/ . Virtually no change to the short term forecast from the previous issuance . and no change to the weather Southeast Alaska is currently experiencing either. Clear skies will once again result in slightly warmer than normal daytime highs and somewhat cooler than normal overnight lows. So even though numerous sites will go below freezing tonight and Friday night, there is no risk of snow. No rain either, by the way. But anyone having new plants outdoors will definitely want to cover them or bring them indoors. Relative humidity values are quite low - into the upper teens in some spots. This plus the (relatively) warm daytime highs will aide in continuing to melt the remaining snow at lower elevations. The ridge that has been over the eastern Gulf for the past few days will weaken and shift east during this short range forecast period, but the strong high pressure over northwest Canada will remain in place for one more day. Thus, the northerly pressure gradient will last into the weekend with 10 to 20 mph winds in Haines and Skagway as well as small craft winds over Lynn Canal at times.

Overnight lows for Thursday and Friday nigh were reduced a few degrees. Included a slight warming trend to daytime highs going into the weekend. No other impactful changes. Forecast confidence is above average.

LONG TERM. /Sat through Thu as of 10 pm Wed/The upper level scenario has not changed all that much from yesterday. A strong upper ridge is still forecast to linger above central Alaska for the first part of the extended before weakening and getting replaced by two upper lows that results in general troughing over Alaska by mid next week. The main changes to this scenario is the upper ridge persisting about a day more into early next week and the upper low from the Canadian arctic not moving as far west as previously depicted. Timing of when the weakening ridge gets replaced by the upper lows continues to shift and currently favors a trend toward later in the week so the forecast past Mon remains at average to low confidence.

For the panhandle, confidence continues to increase that the dry weather will last likely into Mon now with most operational and ensemble mean guidance favoring increasing pops for Tue and beyond. During this dry weather, skies will be mostly clear and temps will be near, to a little above, normal due to persistent offshore flow (some of which may get to 15 to 25 kt Sat into Sun in Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and other areas of the northern inner channels). Little in the way of forecast changes through Sun.

For Mon and beyond, confidence is starting to increase for a front to impact the areas from the south Tue into Wed. Timing is still an issue, but there is enough confidence across operational and ensemble models to start an increase in pops (up to 60 to 70 percent) and winds (up to 25 to 30 kt in the gulf and 15 to 25 kt for the inner channels) for next Wed. There is still the possibility of the timing of this front getting pushed later as we get closer to the event as the forecast upper level pattern change is still evolving so forecast confidence is still around average to low.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-043-051-052.



FCF/BFL/EAL

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	0 mi	50 min	WNW 5.1 G 7	55°F	47°F		1017 hPa
SLXA2	1 mi	27 min	NW 8 G 12	56°F			1013.7 hPa	27°F
SXXA2	2 mi	27 min	NW 9.9 G 13	56°F			1014.6 hPa	23°F
KEXA2	3 mi	28 min	NW 6 G 8.9				1014.7 hPa
GIXA2	16 mi	28 min	W 6 G 8.9	50°F			1014 hPa	38°F
MRYA2	29 mi	28 min	NW 1.9 G 5.1	56°F			1015.4 hPa	30°F
SPXA2	36 mi	27 min	NNE 1.9 G 4.1				1015 hPa
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	75 mi	70 min	NNW 8.9 G 9.9	51°F			1016.8 hPa	51°F

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK	4 mi	27 min	WNW 8	10.00 mi	Fair	53°F	31°F	43%	1017.1 hPa
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK	23 mi	84 min	WSW 5	10.00 mi	Fair	54°F	27°F	35%	1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Ward Cove, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska

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Weather Map

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