Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 181527 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 606 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

SHORT TERM. /Through Sat night/ Weakening front slowly approaching the inner channels and southern outer coast this morning. Yakutat has been raining all night, but the rain just got to Gustavus at 5 am, and radar imagery shows that the front edge of the rain as of 5 am extending from Skagway down between Gustavus and Hoonah, and then southward just west of Kruzof Island. The Chilkat Valley and Haines have remained dry so far based on obs and webcams due to rain shadowing by the Chilkat Mountains.

Meanwhile the southern panhandle still has some lingering smoke hanging around the area from Frederick Sound southward. It is enough that visibility has been reduced down to 6 to 8 miles over Prince of Wales Island and Clarence Strait overnight as the smoke has been trapped by a low level inversion at around 1700 feet as seen on the 12z Annette sounding. The smoke should diminish today as the inversion breaks promoting more mixing in the lower atmosphere, and rain moves into the area.

For the next 48 hours, the front will continue its trek across the panhandle from W to E continuing to weaken as it goes. Eastward progress of the rain is a little slower then expected so the forecast was adjusted accordingly. Rain should develop for areas N and W of Frederick Sound this morning, Kake, Petersburg, and Klawock will get in on the act this afternoon, and the southern panhandle will have to wait until tonight. Expected qpf amounts will diminish the farther south you get as well, ranging from around 0.3 to 0.5 inches up north to around 0.1 inches in the southern panhandle.

Not much in the way of winds expected with this front either. It did produce gale force winds out by Cape Suckling last night, but observations farther east have not been that impressive (buoy 46083, Cape Fairweather buoy, has only seen as high as 16 kt so far and the front is nearly right on top of it at the moment). In fact, other than buoy 46083 the highest winds in the area right now are in Northern Lynn Canal, where lowering pressures in the southern Yukon produced some 15 to 20 kt southerly winds overnight. Overall winds are not expected to be much more than that for most areas as the front moves in, and other then the wind shift to westerly post- front there is not much to talk about. Few changes to the wind forecast as a result.

Otherwise, after this front a weak ridge will get shoved E as a new low churns into the central gulf by Sat night. This feature is rather weak and by the end of the short range most of the rain showers and wind associated with it will only have affected the Gulf waters and NE Gulf coast.

LONG TERM. /Sunday through Friday night/ . This long term forecast remains on track with only a few modifications . primarily to the wind field for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A weak front and equally weak low will affect Southeast Alaska Sunday afternoon and overnight. Nothing outrageous in terms of wind apart from some small craft southeasterlies over the eastern Gulf beginning Sunday and lasting through Monday. The bigger story begins Monday night with the arrival of gale force winds over the eastern Gulf and then, heavy rain over much of Southeast Alaska Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. As was suspected last night, winds over the Gulf were increased for Tuesday and Tuesday night and strong wind gusts for at least the southern outer coast are looking more and more likely for Tuesday night. Model agreement is still not the best, but the trends are there. Rain will remain with us through at least mid weekend, but winds over the Gulf will subside to 20 kts or less by Thursday afternoon. Autumn is really here now, I think.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-042-043-051>053.



EAL/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	0 mi	56 min	WNW 1 G 1.9	55°F	54°F		1012.4 hPa
SLXA2	1 mi	40 min	NE 1.9 G 2.9	56°F			1009.3 hPa	54°F
KEXA2	3 mi	31 min	SE 2.9 G 4.1	56°F			1010.1 hPa	55°F
GIXA2	16 mi	31 min	E 1.9 G 5.1	57°F			1009.4 hPa	56°F
MRYA2	29 mi	32 min	SSE 1.9 G 5.1	56°F				54°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	75 mi	34 min	NNW 5.1 G 7	57°F			1010.8 hPa	56°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy	79 mi	104 min		57°F		2 ft	1013.9 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK	4 mi	51 min	E 4	6.00 mi	Fog/Mist	56°F	55°F	100%	1012.4 hPa
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK	23 mi	48 min	SW 3	9.00 mi	Overcast	56°F	55°F	97%	1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Ward Cove, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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