Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 072307 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 207 PM AKST Sat Dec 7 2019

SHORT TERM. Satellite imagery this afternoon showing low pressure system over the Bering Sea with associated front extending into the western AK gulf and triple point low developing along the front moving towards Prince William Sound. Two fronts extending from this western AK Gulf low with one currently moving over the northern panhandle and the second stronger front advancing eastward over the gulf. More on these below. At mid levels high pressure ridge will develop over the panhandle through Sunday with another low advancing north towards the Aleutians which then peels back to the west. Thus expecting a dry period in between the current systems and a front associated with the Aleutian low reaching the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday.

Saturday night is a period of transitions. Stable air mass producing a mix of flurries, snow, light rain, and potential for some freezing drizzle over the central and northern panhandle. The southern region meanwhile stays dry overall. Potential for fog development under the stable atmosphere with warmer air moving over snow covered ground tonight as well. As the current fronts advance main issue is the warming trend and precipitation type transition. Have warm air moving in aloft and long southerly fetch so expect snow levels and temperatures to steadily increase this evening and into the overnight hours. By Sunday morning most locations, with the exception of higher elevations, should be all rain (and even a rain-snow mix at those higher elevations). Mentioned the freezing drizzle as surface and ground temps are still close to freezing before the precip change and model soundings show saturated isothermal layer just at or below freezing. Not expecting any significant ice or snow accumulations but may see some slick conditions. Yakutat getting brunt of rain fall which may be heavy at times tonight which along with previous snow will result in some slushy roads.

Inner channel winds shift to the south and remain generally below 15 to 20 kts. Barrier jet over the northeast gulf producing near gale force winds this evening before the front weakens. The Monday night-tuesday front will bring more max gale force to potential storm force winds in the northeast gulf and gales along the eastern gulf.

Models in fair agreement so only minor changes through Sunday. Timing difference for the Monday front exist but solutions still in the same ballpark. Used a blend of GFS/NAM due to consensus. Forecast confidence is above average with overall synoptic pattern and warming temps but with the local micro climates low confidence on precip type timing this evening and late tonight.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Upper level pattern features a gradual change through the long range with a ridge over, or just east, of the panhandle while a rather broad trough sits over the Bering Sea to start with. This trough is rather complex with at least three upper low centers embedded within its structure. A lot of the uncertainty in the long range comes from how these upper lows, and associated troughs, interact up stream and how the trough as a whole splits apart through the week eventually forming more zonal flow across the north Pacific by next weekend. Two of these lows will be major players in the weather over the panhandle for next week.

Upper low number one will hound the panhandle for Mon into Tue. The surface low itself will be all the way over in Bristol Bay, but the associated front will be sending precip and gale force winds across the gulf at that time. Main uncertainty here is with how strong various waves that form along the front, if any, will be and how they will affect the movement of the front itself. GFS and Nam favor some stronger waves with a slower movement to the front while ECMWF and Canadian favor weaker, to no, frontal waves and a faster movement speed for the front (by as much as 6 hours). GFS generally has been a little too aggressive with frontal wave development recently so leaned more toward the weaker waves and faster frontal movement scenario. In either case, persistent southerly flow ahead of the front means temps will be warming for most of the area so most precip at sea level will be rain with snow levels around 1000 to 3000 feet.

Soon after the first front moves through a second gale force front will be advancing on the panhandle as upper low number two settles into the western gulf. More wind and precip expected for Wed from this storm. Timing for this system is better then it was yesterday with more models settling on Wed for the main frontal passage. It is after that that things get a little sketchy with post frontal troughs. Low confidence on the forecast past Wed because of this except for the trend of wetter and generally still warmer.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051>053.



PRB/EAL

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	0 mi	58 min	Calm G 1.9	33°F	46°F		1017.4 hPa
SLXA2	1 mi	39 min	NE 1.9 G 2.9	34°F			1014.3 hPa	32°F
KEXA2	3 mi	40 min	N 1.9 G 2.9	32°F			1017.1 hPa	29°F
GIXA2	16 mi	40 min	E 4.1 G 6	36°F			1015.2 hPa	34°F
MRYA2	29 mi	40 min	N 8.9 G 12	37°F				32°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	75 mi	42 min	E 8 G 8.9	37°F			1016.2 hPa	33°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy	79 mi	52 min		43°F	46°F	5 ft	1016.6 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK	4 mi	2 hrs	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	30°F	30°F	100%	1016.6 hPa
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK	23 mi	56 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	32°F	89%	1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

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Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Ward Cove, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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