Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saxman, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:39AMSunset 4:12PM Saturday December 7, 2019 11:51 PM PST (07:51 UTC) Moonrise 2:54PMMoonset 3:20AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 314 Pm Akst Sat Dec 7 2019
Tonight..Variable wind 10 kt becoming se 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late.
Sun..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Thu..S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saxman, AK
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location: 55.33, -131.63     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 072307 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 207 PM AKST Sat Dec 7 2019

SHORT TERM. Satellite imagery this afternoon showing low pressure system over the Bering Sea with associated front extending into the western AK gulf and triple point low developing along the front moving towards Prince William Sound. Two fronts extending from this western AK Gulf low with one currently moving over the northern panhandle and the second stronger front advancing eastward over the gulf. More on these below. At mid levels high pressure ridge will develop over the panhandle through Sunday with another low advancing north towards the Aleutians which then peels back to the west. Thus expecting a dry period in between the current systems and a front associated with the Aleutian low reaching the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday.

Saturday night is a period of transitions. Stable air mass producing a mix of flurries, snow, light rain, and potential for some freezing drizzle over the central and northern panhandle. The southern region meanwhile stays dry overall. Potential for fog development under the stable atmosphere with warmer air moving over snow covered ground tonight as well. As the current fronts advance main issue is the warming trend and precipitation type transition. Have warm air moving in aloft and long southerly fetch so expect snow levels and temperatures to steadily increase this evening and into the overnight hours. By Sunday morning most locations, with the exception of higher elevations, should be all rain (and even a rain-snow mix at those higher elevations). Mentioned the freezing drizzle as surface and ground temps are still close to freezing before the precip change and model soundings show saturated isothermal layer just at or below freezing. Not expecting any significant ice or snow accumulations but may see some slick conditions. Yakutat getting brunt of rain fall which may be heavy at times tonight which along with previous snow will result in some slushy roads.

Inner channel winds shift to the south and remain generally below 15 to 20 kts. Barrier jet over the northeast gulf producing near gale force winds this evening before the front weakens. The Monday night-tuesday front will bring more max gale force to potential storm force winds in the northeast gulf and gales along the eastern gulf.

Models in fair agreement so only minor changes through Sunday. Timing difference for the Monday front exist but solutions still in the same ballpark. Used a blend of GFS/NAM due to consensus. Forecast confidence is above average with overall synoptic pattern and warming temps but with the local micro climates low confidence on precip type timing this evening and late tonight.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Upper level pattern features a gradual change through the long range with a ridge over, or just east, of the panhandle while a rather broad trough sits over the Bering Sea to start with. This trough is rather complex with at least three upper low centers embedded within its structure. A lot of the uncertainty in the long range comes from how these upper lows, and associated troughs, interact up stream and how the trough as a whole splits apart through the week eventually forming more zonal flow across the north Pacific by next weekend. Two of these lows will be major players in the weather over the panhandle for next week.

Upper low number one will hound the panhandle for Mon into Tue. The surface low itself will be all the way over in Bristol Bay, but the associated front will be sending precip and gale force winds across the gulf at that time. Main uncertainty here is with how strong various waves that form along the front, if any, will be and how they will affect the movement of the front itself. GFS and Nam favor some stronger waves with a slower movement to the front while ECMWF and Canadian favor weaker, to no, frontal waves and a faster movement speed for the front (by as much as 6 hours). GFS generally has been a little too aggressive with frontal wave development recently so leaned more toward the weaker waves and faster frontal movement scenario. In either case, persistent southerly flow ahead of the front means temps will be warming for most of the area so most precip at sea level will be rain with snow levels around 1000 to 3000 feet.

Soon after the first front moves through a second gale force front will be advancing on the panhandle as upper low number two settles into the western gulf. More wind and precip expected for Wed from this storm. Timing for this system is better then it was yesterday with more models settling on Wed for the main frontal passage. It is after that that things get a little sketchy with post frontal troughs. Low confidence on the forecast past Wed because of this except for the trend of wetter and generally still warmer.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051>053.



PRB/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 0 mi58 min Calm G 1.9 33°F 46°F1017.4 hPa
SLXA2 1 mi39 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 34°F 1014.3 hPa32°F
KEXA2 3 mi40 min N 1.9 G 2.9 32°F 1017.1 hPa29°F
GIXA2 16 mi40 min E 4.1 G 6 36°F 1015.2 hPa34°F
MRYA2 29 mi40 min N 8.9 G 12 37°F 32°F
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 75 mi42 min E 8 G 8.9 37°F 1016.2 hPa33°F
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 79 mi52 min 43°F 46°F5 ft1016.6 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ketchikan, Ketchikan International Airport, AK4 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair30°F30°F100%1016.6 hPa
Metlakatla, Metlakatla Seaplane Base, AK23 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair35°F32°F89%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAKT

Wind History from AKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------N9NW9------NW8----NW4W3--Calm--Calm
1 day ago------------------CalmNW3----NW3NW4CalmNW6--------------
2 days agoSE4SE4S4S4SE3CalmS4SE4CalmCalmSE3Calm------------Calm----------

Tide / Current Tables for Ketchikan, Alaska
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Ketchikan
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:32 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:35 AM AKST     4.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:58 AM AKST     14.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:07 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:17 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:24 PM AKST     1.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:39 PM AKST     13.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.87.65.64.34.25.37.41012.514.31514.212.19.15.83.21.81.93.568.811.212.712.9

Tide / Current Tables for Ward Cove, Revillagigedo Channel, Alaska
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Ward Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:32 AM AKST     4.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:32 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:00 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:52 AM AKST     15.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:08 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:17 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:21 PM AKST     1.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:33 PM AKST     13.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.97.65.54.34.35.57.710.41314.715.314.412.195.73.11.823.76.39.211.713.113.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.