Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saxman, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 232344 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 244 PM AKST Thu Jan 23 2025

SHORT TERM
Showers continue across the northern panhandle from moisture rotating around the northern edge of a ridge in the gulf.
This ridge in the gulf will continue to build Thursday night into Friday and dominate the short range period meaning clearer skies and drier conditions. The presence of troughing over the interior and building ridge in the gulf is allowing a coastal jet to form around the Fairweather grounds funneling into Cross Sound with sustained 25 kt winds and gusts up to 35 kt. This is expected to continue through Thursday night and into Friday. Elevated winds of around 20 kts will continue for Lynn Canal for the period as well, with slight slackening overnight due to influence from drainage winds.

Aside from the elevated winds in a few marine areas, the start of the weekend is looking to be relatively quiet. With clearing skies expected and persistent onshore flow, coastal communities such as Yakutat can expect more fog Thursday night while some protected inner channel communities that have yet to dry out could also see patchy fog tonight. For Friday night fog potential shifts southward, though forecaster confidence decreases.

LONG TERM
/Saturday to early next week/...

Quick notes: -Ridge of high pressure will be in place this weekend before breaking down early next week.
-Precip chances (mainly rain) for the northern panhandle Saturday, then precip chances spread southward early next week as ridge breaks down.
-Continued warmer-than-normal temps before a cooling trend settles in early next week.

Details:

Lots of agreement in the models over the big picture idea.
Going into the weekend, a ridge of high pressure will be over the gulf and panhandle. This should bring some drier weather to the southern half. The northern half of SE AK looks to have some rain riding the northern edge of the ridge, which would keep the clouds and rain in the forecast.

Rain amounts for Saturday will be light. Sunday into Monday amounts will increase, especially for Yakutat where 24 hour rainfall amounts around 1.5 to 2 inches are likely. EURO and GFS ENS probabilities are about 70% chance of amounts greater than 1 inch, and near 30 to 40% chance of greater than 2 inches.

Monday looks similar for amounts near Yakutat but the rain spreads into the rest of the panhandle. Sumner Strait and north look to get about 0.5 to 0.75 inches of qpf with areas south of Sumner Strait getting less than a half inch. Probabilities of getting more than 0.5 inches is around 60 to 80% with probabilities of getting more than 1 inch are less than 20%.

As the ridge breaks down, the heavier precip will start to slide southward. But 24 hour amounts look to be up to a half inch for those north of Frederick Sound, less than a quarter inch for those south of Frederick Sound.

Otherwise, this weekend will have temps above normal for late January with generally light winds over land areas. Winds in the inner channels look to be around 5 to 15 knots. Stronger winds, around 15 to 20 knots, look to be in Lynn Canal. Sunday night into Monday, wind speeds will increase with all inner channels will range from 10 to 20 knots.
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