Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hollis, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:27AMSunset 3:11PM Saturday December 7, 2019 5:37 AM AKST (14:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:58PMMoonset 3:24AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ036 Clarence Strait- 309 Am Akst Sat Dec 7 2019
Today..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SE wind increasing to 15 kt late. Seas building to 3 ft late.
Sun..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hollis, AK
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location: 55.48, -132.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 071315 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 415 AM AKST Sat Dec 7 2019

SHORT TERM. A warming trend is on the way for SE Alaska over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Currently, ridging aloft continues to build over the Gulf and will continue to amplify and shift eastward until the axis is almost directly over the Panhandle by tonight. In the low levels, the ridging is flatter which will allow a weak warm front to approach the Panhandle today and cross mainly the northern areas by Sunday morning. Increasing moist isentropic ascent will lead to light precipitation developing by mid morning along the NE Gulf Coast and further east by late afternoon/early evening. Some cool air remains in place over the interior and northern Panhandle this morning, and with the extremely stable low levels would not be surprised if the precipitation started as snow in Juneau and Yakutat, possibly Gustavus and Hoonah before transitioning to all rain this evening. Further north, cold air will hang on a bit longer and 2 to 3 inches of additional snowfall may occur through tonight for the Haines/Skagway areas.

Vigorous shortwave will round the base of the trough south of the Aleutians this morning and will track northward towards the NE Gulf tonight. Deep layer southerly moisture transport and dynamic lift ahead of this feature will lead to a period of moderate to heavy rainfall for Yakutat tonight. Once the shortwave passes, ridging will once again build strongly over the Panhandle, leading to a rapid reduction in precipitation Sunday as the best moisture transport pulls back to the west. Along with this, a much warmer airmass will filter into the Panhandle. High temperatures on Sunday will likely be well into the 40s over the southern Panhandle. Unfortunately for snow lovers, snow levels will rise to between 2500 and 5500 feet which will lead to melting of snow even at elevation.

With a weak gradient in place over the inside waters, not expecting much in the way of significant wind in the short term. Over the Gulf, SE winds will increase to 25 to 35 kt, especially on Sunday into Sunday night.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Upper level pattern features a gradual change through the long range with a ridge over, or just east, of the panhandle while a rather broad trough sits over the Bering Sea to start with. This trough is rather complex with at least three upper low centers embedded within its structure. A lot of the uncertainty in the long range comes from how these upper lows, and associated troughs, interact up stream and how the trough as a whole splits apart through the week eventually forming more zonal flow across the north Pacific by next weekend. Two of these lows will be major players in the weather over the panhandle for next week.

Upper low number one will hound the panhandle for Mon into Tue. The surface low itself will be all the way over in Bristol Bay, but the associated front will be sending precip and gale force winds across the gulf at that time. Main uncertainty here is with how strong various waves that form along the front, if any, will be and how they will affect the movement of the front itself. GFS and Nam favor some stronger waves with a slower movement to the front while ECMWF and Canadian favor weaker, to no, frontal waves and a faster movement speed for the front (by as much as 6 hours). GFS generally has been a little too aggressive with frontal wave development recently so leaned more toward the weaker waves and faster frontal movement scenario. In either case, persistent southerly flow ahead of the front means temps will be warming for most of the area so most precip at sea level will be rain with snow levels around 1000 to 3000 feet.

Soon after the first front moves through a second gale force front will be advancing on the panhandle as upper low number two settles into the western gulf. More wind and precip expected for Wed from this storm. Timing for this system is better then it was yesterday with more models settling on Wed for the main frontal passage. It is after that that things get a little sketchy with post frontal troughs. Low confidence on the forecast past Wed because of this except for the trend of wetter and generally still warmer.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051-053.



DEL/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 40 mi28 min NW 8.9 G 12 38°F 1010.1 hPa32°F
GIXA2 41 mi26 min NNE 1.9 G 6 36°F 1008.4 hPa33°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK 55 mi50 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1
46145 - Central Dixon Entrance Buoy 78 mi98 min 42°F 46°F4 ft1009.5 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAHY

Wind History from AHY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------E16
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1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Hollis Anchorage, Kasaan Bay, Alaska
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Hollis Anchorage
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:24 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:43 AM AKST     4.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:21 AM AKST     14.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:57 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:20 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 03:38 PM AKST     3.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:53 PM AKST     12.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.85.94.64.45.26.99.211.513.414.414.212.710.27.44.93.43.24.26.18.410.612.112.511.7

Tide / Current Tables for Karta Bay, Kasaan Bay, Alaska
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Karta Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:24 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:52 AM AKST     4.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:22 AM AKST     14.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:56 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:19 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 03:47 PM AKST     2.88 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:54 PM AKST     12.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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864.64.14.96.6911.513.514.614.51310.57.653.32.93.95.98.310.712.312.812.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.