Saturday, June12, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nelson Lagoon, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 4:17AMSunset 11:41PM Saturday June 12, 2021 6:16 AM AKDT (14:16 UTC) Moonrise 5:38AMMoonset 11:58PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ165 Port Heiden To Cape Sarichef- 322 Am Akdt Sat Jun 12 2021
.small craft advisory Sunday...
Today..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. From port moller e, variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Sun night..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Mon..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nelson Lagoon, AK
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location: 55.58, -161.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 121301 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 501 AM AKDT Sat Jun 12 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Aloft, a complex pattern exists over Alaska today. Weak flow continues over Southcentral AK. However, a difference in the pattern from yesterday is that a closed 500mb low is sliding southeast across Southwest AK, which has added at least some flow aloft and has diminished the col at least a bit. It is also sandwiching a shortwave ridge in the Gulf between it and a low off the the coast of British Columbia. Over the Bering, zonal flow exists coming around the based of a long wave trough with multiple low centers. This zonal flow is also nearly cutting off a low in the North Pacific just south of the Aleutians. All of this to say there are multiple lows in play and some complicated long wave troughing, with high pressure managing to sneak into Southcentral.

On the surface, weather is much more simple with high pressure over mainland AK. Two surface lows exist in the Bering, one in the Eastern Bering and another moving east into the Central Bering. The low in the Eastern Bering is weakening and will be absorbed into the second low later today. Before it does, it will continue to push a surface front through Southwest AK. This front is producing a band of rain and rain showers moving through Southwest AK that can be observed on RADAR. So, active weather in the Bering and Southwest AK with high pressure keeping things generally quiet in Southcentral AK.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue to perform well. They have been consistent in depicting synoptic scale features at least for the past day. The primary forecast challenge continues to be location for convection in Southcentral. High confidence overall in model guidance today.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist through today. A weak Turnagain Arm wind event will cause winds to switch to the south and become gusty tonight.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sat night through Mon night) .

An upper-level ridge over the eastern half of the state will allow summer-like weather to continue across the region through the next several days. A weak surface trough over Prince William Sound this morning will weaken as it drifts south over the Gulf. As it does, the gusty gap winds along eastern Kenai Peninsula coast will diminish. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday with the best chance for more widespread convective activity today. This is due to an upper-level wave bifurcating the ridge and lifting north across the region this afternoon as a weak southerly flow develops ahead of an upstream shortwave dropping south into the western Gulf. The best chance for convection will be over the Copper River Basin, and Mat-Su Valleys with thunderstorm activity most likely over the higher terrain of the Wrangell, Talkeetna, and northern extent of the Chugach Mountains.

The upper-level ridge will re-establish itself by late Sunday and deepen in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave. The ridge axis will settle over Southcentral for Monday. Subsidence from the strengthening ridge will help further warm and dry the airmass, inhibiting convective development Monday afternoon and evening. With 850 mb temperatures warming to between 10 and 13C, daytime highs across interior Southcentral will continue to trend warmer, climbing from the upper 60s and lower 70s today into the middle to upper 70s by the start of next week.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An upper level low is diving southeast along the Southwest Coast towards Kodiak Island today. Overall, it will be relatively non- impactful aside from a few brief light rain showers and some low cloud ceilings. Most of the Southwest Mainland should begin to clear out and warm up by tomorrow afternoon after the system moves out, exceptions being the Kuskokwim Delta and the immediate Southwest coastal regions. These areas will likely remain locked in with low cloud cover and patchy fog throughout the forecast period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

Most of the Bering remains relatively calm through tonight until a shortwave off a North Pacific low pushes across the Aleutians early tomorrow morning. Gusty southerly winds are expected through the bays and passes of the Eastern Aleutians and parts of the Southern AKPen as the low approaches. Additionally, persistent rain showers are likely across the Eastern Aleutians and Southern AKPen tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night, extending northward across the Pribilofs and the northern Bering tomorrow night.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/ Monday through Wednesday).

The focus for organized storm system will be across the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Starting Monday, a low will be positioned south of the eastern Aleutians with a front extending northward across the southern Alaska Peninsula into the eastern Bering Sea. Winds along the front will primarily top out at small craft advisory levels, though there could be gale force southerlies through bays and passes along the Alaska Peninsula on Monday. Expect improving conditions beginning Monday night as the low exits to the Pacific.

Another low will track in the vicinity of the Aleutians Monday night through Wednesday, though at this point the track and strength of this low are very much in question. At this point and based on time of year, expect winds will likely top out at small craft advisory with this system

Elsewhere, expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the Day 3 through 5 period.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Friday).

A much warmer, summer transitional pattern is in place for both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska in the new week. Model guidance continues to anchor the combined surface to upper-level ridge across the State through Friday. The 850 mb temperature solution has widen the 8 to 10 degrees Celcius coverage area from across Southcentral through the interior of Bristol Bay into at least Wed night, leading to more favorable mid-morning to afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. A developing Northwest Pacific low on Tuesday will either stay south of the Aleutians or cross over the Aleutians/Bering Sea between Thursday/Friday. GEM and ECMWF shares a similar forward motion track of the low while GFS hints at placing two separate circulations over the western Bering, with the first one moving northward on Tuesday then weakens by Wednesday afternoon. The second low from the Northwest Pacific barrels to the south of the Aleutians on Wednesday night then dips back into the North Pacific through Thursday night. This system will usher gales for mostly the Aleutians and perhaps along the southern Bering depending on how close it moves near the Aleutians which could influence the sea heights, Bays and Passes. Overall, the model confidence is high for Southcentral but moderate confidence for the Bering Sea and Aleutians region.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BJB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KM MARINE/LONG TERM . SEB/CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK 44 mi47 min SSE 4.1 G 6 44°F 45°F1016.7 hPa
KGCA2 - 9459881 - King Cove, AK 66 mi47 min S 6 G 9.9 43°F 45°F1017 hPa

Wind History for Sand Point, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nelson Lagoon, AK30 mi21 minW 74.00 miFog/Mist44°F43°F96%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAOU

Wind History from AOU (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Bay, Pavlof Bay, Alaska
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Canoe Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:50 AM AKDT     6.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:40 AM AKDT     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:22 PM AKDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:18 PM AKDT     3.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.64.35.166.66.86.35.13.51.70.1-0.8-1-0.40.723.34.44.84.84.54.13.63.4

Tide / Current Tables for Settlement Point, Pavlof Bay, Alaska
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Settlement Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:16 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:57 AM AKDT     7.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:58 AM AKDT     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:29 PM AKDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:36 PM AKDT     3.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.35.36.37.27.575.94.32.40.6-0.6-1-0.60.51.93.44.65.35.354.43.83.43.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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