Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nelson Lagoon, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:41AMSunset 11:12PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 9:57 PM AKDT (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:29AMMoonset 12:30AM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ165 Port Heiden To Cape Sarichef- 300 Pm Akdt Tue May 26 2020
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat through Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nelson Lagoon, AK
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location: 55.58, -161.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 262312 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 312 PM AKDT Tue May 26 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The upper low over Saint Lawrence Island continues to track north. Its associated short wave is moving slowly north across Southwest Alaska. A weakening Easterly Wave which moved through Southcentral overnight is weakening as it moves through the western interior. Much of Southwest Alaska is under mostly cloudy skies. Showers associated with a northward advancing wave are moving north across the area. It is also getting rather convective with some some breaks over the lower Kuskokwim Valley. The Bering Sea and Aleutians are generally under mostly cloudy skies with areas of rain and showers. A northward advancing upper wave accompanied by some sunshine inland is starting to Kick off showers across Southcentral Alaska. Temperatures which started in the 30s across the Copper River Basin have started to rebound with sunshine and cloud breaks. except for gusty southeast winds along the Delta Coast, and sea breezes along Cook Inlet, winds are on the light side.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models overall in in generally good agreement with synoptic features through the short term. Local effect gap winds across Southcentral will likely be handled best by higher resolution models and hand edits.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR and generally light winds will persist. Showers developing this afternoon are expected to stay mainly to the east of the airport complex. Occasional gusty southerly winds late this afternoon into early evening are possible.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). An upper level trough is slowly moving through Southcentral Alaska from south-to-north this evening and overnight. The colder air aloft and some surface heating due to enough breaks in cloud cover is creating an unstable enough environment for numerous showers this evening. These showers should greatly diminish by late in the evening as the surface heating diminishes.

Wednesday will see the beginning of a warming and drying trend for the next few days. Some gusty northerly winds are likely to develop through channeled terrain in the Alaska Range Wednesday night and then models indicate they should diminish some during the day Thursday. There is some uncertainty as to how much they will diminish Thursday as they have a habit of persisting once they get going. This is the biggest area of concern in the current forecast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3). Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms will end this evening as a low departs to the north. Skies will remain mostly cloudy Wednesday, especially near the coast. While scattered showers may redevelop near the mountains Wednesday afternoon/evening, the lack of instability due to the cloud cover should sufficiently inhibit any thunderstorms. An upper ridge will begin to have more of an influence over the area by Thursday, bringing partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3). A series of fronts will track across the western Aleutians through Friday bringing moderate rain and gusty southerly winds. An upper ridge will prevent these fronts from moving farther east. Thus, conditions east of and including Unalaska and the Pribilofs will remain generally benign through the end of the week.

MARINE (Days 3-5: Friday through Sunday). Gulf of Alaska: No significant winds or seas are expected. A weak low skirting the Gulf Friday however could briefly produce high end easterly small craft winds over the southern Gulf through Friday evening.

Bering Sea/Aleutians: A weather front will bring sub-gale southerly winds to the eastern Bering Sea/east Aleutians Friday. Winds will then diminish through Sunday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4-7: Saturday through Tuesday). The upper level Rex block over the mainland and the Gulf starts to break down Saturday as the upper ridge retreats north and splits. This allows the Upper low over the Gulf to track slowly north through early next weak. The increased easterly flow aloft will drive easterly waves west across Southcentral. This will result in cloudy conditions, increased chances of rain/showers, and cooler temperatures across much of Southcentral into early next week.

For Southwest Alaska, an upper level trough will setup over the southern mainland this weekend. This will generally bring increasing clouds and chances of showers. Any stronger upper waves could set off isolated thunderstorms in the afternoons, depending on how much instability and sunshine can develop earlier in the day.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 177 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . RC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . RC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK 44 mi64 min SSE 8.9 G 12 45°F 43°F1021.2 hPa
KGCA2 - 9459881 - King Cove, AK 66 mi64 min S 8 G 12 44°F 44°F1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Sand Point, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nelson Lagoon, AK30 mi62 minNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F41°F86%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAOU

Wind History from AOU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS17S14S12S11S11S9SW8SW6SW6SW4S7SW8SW11SW12SW14SW12SW13SW15SW9SW7N7N5NE5NE6
1 day agoS16S15S15S12S12S12S13S13SE19S15SE17S12S12S18SE13S16
G22
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2 days agoS14S14S14SE9S6S5S7S8S8S9S11S10S10S10S12S17S17S21S18S15S18
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Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Bay, Pavlof Bay, Alaska
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Canoe Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:29 AM AKDT     3.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:12 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:14 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM AKDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:41 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:32 PM AKDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM AKDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.43.84.45.25.96.46.45.84.63.11.50.1-0.7-0.7-0.10.92.13.34.24.64.64.44

Tide / Current Tables for Settlement Point, Pavlof Bay, Alaska
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Settlement Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:12 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:46 AM AKDT     7.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:42 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:50 PM AKDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 PM AKDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:11 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.74.45.46.36.976.55.43.82.10.5-0.5-0.8-0.30.82.13.44.5554.84.33.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.