Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nelson Lagoon, AK
 | Sunrise 8:39 AM Sunset 6:51 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 4:15 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones were updated 3/20/2025. If your report is out of date, please click Edit
PKZ756 Port Heiden To Nelson Lagoon Out To 15 Nm- 221 Pm Akdt Tue Oct 14 2025
.gale warning tonight - .
Tonight - SE wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
Wed - E wind 25 kt becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Wed night - W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Thu - W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Thu night - W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
Fri - NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sat - SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun - SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
PKZ700
No data
No data
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nelson Lagoon, AK
NEW! Add second zone forecast
| Canoe Bay Click for Map Tue -- 12:36 AM AKDT Moonrise Tue -- 04:12 AM AKDT 0.69 feet Low Tide Tue -- 09:14 AM AKDT Sunrise Tue -- 11:29 AM AKDT 4.48 feet High Tide Tue -- 04:07 PM AKDT 4.45 feet Low Tide Tue -- 06:14 PM AKDT Moonset Tue -- 07:45 PM AKDT Sunset Tue -- 10:19 PM AKDT 5.62 feet High Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |
Canoe Bay, Pavlof Bay, Alaska, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.8 |
| 9 am |
| 3.6 |
| 10 am |
| 4.2 |
| 11 am |
| 4.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 5.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 5.5 |
| Settlement Point Click for Map Tue -- 12:37 AM AKDT Moonrise Tue -- 03:30 AM AKDT 0.69 feet Low Tide Tue -- 09:15 AM AKDT Sunrise Tue -- 10:36 AM AKDT 4.90 feet High Tide Tue -- 03:25 PM AKDT 4.45 feet Low Tide Tue -- 06:15 PM AKDT Moonset Tue -- 07:46 PM AKDT Sunset Tue -- 09:26 PM AKDT 6.15 feet High Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |
Settlement Point, Pavlof Bay, Alaska, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 2.9 |
| 8 am |
| 3.8 |
| 9 am |
| 4.5 |
| 10 am |
| 4.8 |
| 11 am |
| 4.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 5 |
| 7 pm |
| 5.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 5.7 |
FXAK68 PAFC 150018 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 418 PM AKDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)...
A negatively-tilted shortwave trough is lifting into the north Gulf Coast this afternoon as an attendant compact low moves onshore between Yakutat and Cordova. A shield of mostly cold rain now extends along a deformation axis north of the low and trough out to the eastern half of the Copper Basin. This band of rain should end from southwest to northeast as the supporting low heads off into the Yukon later tonight. Elsewhere, conditions are relatively calm under a transient upper ridge heading into Southcentral from the Gulf. Areas of low clouds and a few light showers persist across the Anchorage, Mat-Su, and western Kenai Peninsula areas, though this should also begin to clear out later this evening as the upper ridge moves overhead.
By tomorrow morning, an occluded front vaulting ahead of a strong low tracking over the Aleutians will quickly head northeast into the Gulf, first brushing past Kodiak Island, then into the northern Gulf by the afternoon hours. A corridor of gale force winds will intensify to Storm force as the front approaches the northern Gulf coast as a barrier jet forms ahead of the boundary.
These strong easterlies will affect the Barrens briefly on Wednesday afternoon before the front continues to the north. A secondary corridor of storm force winds will move south of Prince William Sound Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night before winds rapidly weaken as the front moves onshore.
Aside from the marine impacts, strong easterly winds are also expected to move up into the Kenai Mountains and Turnagain Arm, but a sharp down-inlet gradient developing ahead of the front will prevent strong winds from coming into Anchorage. However, fairly strong winds gusting up to 40 mph will still pick up across the Mat Valley out of the northeast Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night thanks to the same northeast to southwest pressure gradient picking up ahead of the front. In terms of rainfall, the heaviest rain will shift from Kodiak on Wednesday morning into the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound Wednesday afternoon. Most areas in the lee of the mountains (including the Mat Valley and Anchorage) will stay dry through Wednesday night due to the strong cross-barrier flow moving in ahead of the front.
By early Thursday, the parent low currently moving over the Aleutians will drift northeast into the Gulf and move south of Prince William South by Thursday evening. Winds along the coastline will mostly subside as winds up to gale force south of the low shift from southerly to westerly over the open Gulf waters. Steadier periods of rain will give way to scattered showers as multiple weak waves rotating around the low pinwheel into Southcentral. Unsettled and showery conditions will persist into Friday as the low continues to degrade over the northern Gulf and as a cooler air mass begins to filter in from the west across the Alaska Range.
-AS
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 418 PM AKDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)...
A negatively-tilted shortwave trough is lifting into the north Gulf Coast this afternoon as an attendant compact low moves onshore between Yakutat and Cordova. A shield of mostly cold rain now extends along a deformation axis north of the low and trough out to the eastern half of the Copper Basin. This band of rain should end from southwest to northeast as the supporting low heads off into the Yukon later tonight. Elsewhere, conditions are relatively calm under a transient upper ridge heading into Southcentral from the Gulf. Areas of low clouds and a few light showers persist across the Anchorage, Mat-Su, and western Kenai Peninsula areas, though this should also begin to clear out later this evening as the upper ridge moves overhead.
By tomorrow morning, an occluded front vaulting ahead of a strong low tracking over the Aleutians will quickly head northeast into the Gulf, first brushing past Kodiak Island, then into the northern Gulf by the afternoon hours. A corridor of gale force winds will intensify to Storm force as the front approaches the northern Gulf coast as a barrier jet forms ahead of the boundary.
These strong easterlies will affect the Barrens briefly on Wednesday afternoon before the front continues to the north. A secondary corridor of storm force winds will move south of Prince William Sound Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night before winds rapidly weaken as the front moves onshore.
Aside from the marine impacts, strong easterly winds are also expected to move up into the Kenai Mountains and Turnagain Arm, but a sharp down-inlet gradient developing ahead of the front will prevent strong winds from coming into Anchorage. However, fairly strong winds gusting up to 40 mph will still pick up across the Mat Valley out of the northeast Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night thanks to the same northeast to southwest pressure gradient picking up ahead of the front. In terms of rainfall, the heaviest rain will shift from Kodiak on Wednesday morning into the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound Wednesday afternoon. Most areas in the lee of the mountains (including the Mat Valley and Anchorage) will stay dry through Wednesday night due to the strong cross-barrier flow moving in ahead of the front.
By early Thursday, the parent low currently moving over the Aleutians will drift northeast into the Gulf and move south of Prince William South by Thursday evening. Winds along the coastline will mostly subside as winds up to gale force south of the low shift from southerly to westerly over the open Gulf waters. Steadier periods of rain will give way to scattered showers as multiple weak waves rotating around the low pinwheel into Southcentral. Unsettled and showery conditions will persist into Friday as the low continues to degrade over the northern Gulf and as a cooler air mass begins to filter in from the west across the Alaska Range.
-AS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Thursday)...
Afternoon satellite analysis shows an incredibly large and complex series of low pressure clusters south of Adak in the shape of a large comma head. East of this cluster is a front barreling to the east across the Aleutian Chain. Wind gusts at Unalaska peaked around 60 MPH this afternoon. To the west strong gale force winds are seen wrapping around the low in counter clockwise fashion.
The forecast for this low remains unchanged as it shifts to the east. Despite the parent low weakening as slows down over Kodiak Friday, it's front will continue to slide to the east with gusto.
Winds and rain out of the southeast to east will reach Bristol Bay late tonight, and push north and east through the morning hours.
Coastal winds will peak early afternoon on Wednesday. These easterly winds are not favorable for coastal flooding, so coastal communities will not be expecting any more significant coastal flooding as this weather system affects the region. Elevated water levels may still be possible during higher tide cycles. Strong winds will be accompanied by light to moderate rainfall, with around a half inch of rain expected for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast through tomorrow night.
Northwest winds with gale force gusts and showery weather on the back side of the low will continue for the Eastern Aleutians and AKPen through Thursday morning as the low tracks towards the Gulf.
This northwest flow and cold air advection behind the low will bring a change of airmass to the Bering and Southwest Alaska late this week into the weekend, with low temperatures falling to around freezing by Friday morning.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...
Starting with this weekend, all guidance points toward a continued stormy pattern, with a highly amplified and strong subtropical jet stream. However, there is a huge spread in operational model guidance and poor run-to-run continuity with the handling of individual storm systems. The hemispheric flow does look progressive and favors a west to east storm track across the southern tier of Alaska from the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea to Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska and north Gulf coast/Prince William Sound. These regions would be favored for strong winds and heavy precipitation. Areas further north would see lesser impacts from wind and precipitation.
By early next week, models indicate the jet stream becoming more zonal and the center of the long-wave trough shifting just a bit eastward (with some ridging indicated upstream over the Asian continent). This could bring an end to this period of intense storms that we have been experiencing over the past week.
-SEB
AVIATION
PANC...Cigs and vis are improving quickly this afternoon as a shortwave ridge builds in overhead and drier westerly flow moves in off of the AK Range. Light and variable winds will become north tomorrow morning and increase through the day as a front moves into the Sound and a strong low pressure system near the Alaska Peninsula begins to impact our area. There is a possibility of LLWS as the front moves over the Chugach Mountains tomorrow, but the shear layer level will depend on the strength of the northerly down-Inlet flow. Cigs and vis should be VFR with the incoming front.
Afternoon satellite analysis shows an incredibly large and complex series of low pressure clusters south of Adak in the shape of a large comma head. East of this cluster is a front barreling to the east across the Aleutian Chain. Wind gusts at Unalaska peaked around 60 MPH this afternoon. To the west strong gale force winds are seen wrapping around the low in counter clockwise fashion.
The forecast for this low remains unchanged as it shifts to the east. Despite the parent low weakening as slows down over Kodiak Friday, it's front will continue to slide to the east with gusto.
Winds and rain out of the southeast to east will reach Bristol Bay late tonight, and push north and east through the morning hours.
Coastal winds will peak early afternoon on Wednesday. These easterly winds are not favorable for coastal flooding, so coastal communities will not be expecting any more significant coastal flooding as this weather system affects the region. Elevated water levels may still be possible during higher tide cycles. Strong winds will be accompanied by light to moderate rainfall, with around a half inch of rain expected for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast through tomorrow night.
Northwest winds with gale force gusts and showery weather on the back side of the low will continue for the Eastern Aleutians and AKPen through Thursday morning as the low tracks towards the Gulf.
This northwest flow and cold air advection behind the low will bring a change of airmass to the Bering and Southwest Alaska late this week into the weekend, with low temperatures falling to around freezing by Friday morning.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...
Starting with this weekend, all guidance points toward a continued stormy pattern, with a highly amplified and strong subtropical jet stream. However, there is a huge spread in operational model guidance and poor run-to-run continuity with the handling of individual storm systems. The hemispheric flow does look progressive and favors a west to east storm track across the southern tier of Alaska from the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea to Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska and north Gulf coast/Prince William Sound. These regions would be favored for strong winds and heavy precipitation. Areas further north would see lesser impacts from wind and precipitation.
By early next week, models indicate the jet stream becoming more zonal and the center of the long-wave trough shifting just a bit eastward (with some ridging indicated upstream over the Asian continent). This could bring an end to this period of intense storms that we have been experiencing over the past week.
-SEB
AVIATION
PANC...Cigs and vis are improving quickly this afternoon as a shortwave ridge builds in overhead and drier westerly flow moves in off of the AK Range. Light and variable winds will become north tomorrow morning and increase through the day as a front moves into the Sound and a strong low pressure system near the Alaska Peninsula begins to impact our area. There is a possibility of LLWS as the front moves over the Chugach Mountains tomorrow, but the shear layer level will depend on the strength of the northerly down-Inlet flow. Cigs and vis should be VFR with the incoming front.
Wind History for Sand Point, AK
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for PAOU
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for PAOU
Wind History Graph: AOU
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska
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King,Salmon/Anchorage,AK
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