Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ivanof Bay, AK

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 9:43PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 4:32 PM AKDT (00:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 12:11PM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ivanof Bay, AK
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location: 55.78, -159.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 212330
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
330 pm akdt Wed aug 21 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level pattern shows the trough persisting along the
alcan border. The low near the central aleutians is now beginning
to get entrained into that alcan trough in the broad flow which
will help move it eastward. The jet stream continues to run south
of the aleutian low and through then central gulf of alaska
before curving southeast toward washington state.

Model discussion
Models remain in very good agreement through the weekend. They
also show remarkable run-to-run consistency with the development
of a series of triple-point lows tracking south of the aleutians
and into the southern gulf of alaska. Once again, the main issue
will be the small scale effects that will drive local winds around
the fires and the smoke.

Aviation
Panc... Smoke will continue to be around the airport through the
taf period. Southeast winds through turnagain arm will increase
this evening but there is a bit of uncertainty as to whether they
will curve enough to move over the airport. At this time it looks
like the strongest of these winds will remain over the water and
could even cause periods of northwest winds due to an eddy effect
off the wind core. It remains to be seen whether these winds will
help or harm the smoke situation as they have to potential to
bring in more clear air from prince william sound or to increase
the smoke off the swan lake fire. Small differences in wind speed
and direction may cause very different results.

Fire weather
For fire weather, the biggest question is how the strong the
southeast winds will be over the swan lake fire tonight through
tomorrow. Other fires in the region are not as susceptible to the
southeast direction as swan lake, including the ones in the
bristol bay region. Overall there will be a slow trend toward more
moist conditions into the weekend. Smoke is expected to remain an
issue across southcentral and parts of southwest alaska for the
next few days.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
Weak ridging is in place over southcentral alaska. There are
several wildfires in the state of alaska and the particulate
matter from these fires has been trapped in the boundary layer.

Some of the local observation sites are reporting haze (hz) while
other are reporting smoke (fu). A dense smoke advisory is in
effect for the interior kenai peninsula south to seward. Light
winds and stable conditions will keep smoked from the swan lake
fire trapped near the surface.

An organized front is on track to move into the gulf of alaska
this forecast period. The lion's share of the moisture will remain
over the gulf of alaska. Kodiak and prince william sound can also
anticipate rain from this system but the mountains will prevent
the moisture from making any headway into anchorage or the mat-
su valleys. Friday the arctic trough will descend south of the
brooks range and later south of the alaska range. This trough will
usher cooler temperatures aloft into the region and increase the
chance of showers.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Southwest alaska will continue to see quiet conditions and
relatively clear skies through this evening. The active weather
will remain on the southern portion of the akpen as a front
associated with the triple point low moves eastward towards the
gulf. A chance for precipitation returns mainly along the alaska
range on Thursday as a trough pushes into the southwest, impacting
the mainland. As the trough and associated shortwave continue to
move southward on Friday, a chance for convective activity and wet
isolated thunderstorm make their return to the southwest. The
best chance for these wet thunderstorms will be along the alaska
range, kuskokwim valley, and interior bristol bay.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Small craft advisory winds remain over the western aleutians and
bering through the evening hours. A front associated with a triple
point low will be the biggest impact to the southern side of the
eastern aleutians and akpen over the next 24 hours. Winds will
continue to be small craft advisory level through Thursday
afternoon, but will likely increase to low end gale force winds
overnight tonight into the early morning hours. Once this system
moves out of the area, northerly flow will persist over much of
the bering through the early weekend.

Marine (days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)
Westerly flow is expected across the gulf through the long term
period. There is moderate confidence that a low will develop over
or just offshore of the alaska peninsula Sunday. However there is
low confidence regarding the exact track and strength of this low
as it moves eastward into the gulf for Monday. Meanwhile over the
bering, there has been consistent indication that a ridge of high
pressure will persist through early next week.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)
Unfortunately there continues to be only muddled signals in the
long-term weather pattern for next week. We have high confidence
that a longwave trough will be in place over the state with a
ridge of high pressure over the western bering. Model solutions
continue to vastly disagree in the timing and strength of several
shortwaves that move across southcentral early next week. This
translates into an unsettled, cloudy, and showery weather pattern
that will likely persist through the middle of next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Dense smoke advisory 121 125.

Flood advisory 121 125.

Marine... Gale warning 155.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Pjs
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ah
marine long term... Ko


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK 45 mi45 min ENE 8.9 G 15 57°F 55°F1001.2 hPa

Wind History for Port Moller, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sand Point, AK46 mi98 minNE 710.00 miLight Rain57°F53°F88%1001.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW8SE5SE8--S11S8--SE3--S7SE7--SE54NE3CalmNE33NE456NE76
1 day agoS11S8S7S5SE4SE6SE63SE7SE5SE6S9SE6SE5S10S10SE5S8S3S33SW3SW6SW6
2 days agoNE6S5N7N11NE5N3NE4CalmNE4--CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE5N4S34--S8

Tide / Current Tables for Dent Point, Stepovak Bay, Alaska
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Dent Point
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Wed -- 12:03 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:26 AM AKDT     1.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:11 AM AKDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:30 PM AKDT     1.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:11 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:38 PM AKDT     6.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.922.63.64.65.55.95.75.14.23.22.31.71.72.43.54.75.86.56.66.15.34.23.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fox Bay, Kupreanof Peninsula, Alaska
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Fox Bay
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Wed -- 12:03 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:26 AM AKDT     1.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:12 AM AKDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:22 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:30 PM AKDT     1.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:39 PM AKDT     6.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:59 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.922.63.64.65.55.95.75.14.23.22.31.71.72.43.54.75.86.56.66.15.34.23.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.