Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ivanof Bay, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:43AMSunset 11:27PM Sunday July 12, 2020 2:28 PM AKDT (22:28 UTC) Moonrise 12:12AMMoonset 12:59PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ivanof Bay, AK
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location: 55.78, -159.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 121321 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 521 AM AKDT Sun Jul 12 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An upper level low over Southwest Alaska continues to generate showers over the greater Bristol Bay area this morning. Another swath of showers over southern Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound is moving to the northeast. Farther west, a pair of surface lows are slowly tracking eastward south of the Aleutian Chain. A layer of marine stratus remains in place across much of the Bering as well as the Gulf of Alaska this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model solutions remain in fairly good agreement. There is good consensus that the upper level low currently over Southwest Alaska deepens and moves over the Gulf of Alaska. At the surface, there is less consistency regarding where this low tracks beyond Tuesday. The NAM was the preferred model for the placement of this low in the Gulf. Farther west, model solutions agree on an inbound low over the western Aleutians midweek, though there is less consistency with the track and strength of this low as it progresses eastward. In the meantime, higher resolution models were preferred, particularly given the convective environment.

AVIATION. PANC . Gusty southeasterly winds may lull early this morning before ramping back up by late morning. Low level wind shear will be the main concern during the day Sunday before winds diminish by Sunday evening. Ceilings should remain above VFR but may drop to MVFR with passing showers.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and Monday) .

The upper level low over Southwest Alaska will move southward through the day today. This will cause the broad flow over Southcentral to turn southwesterly. The southwest onshore flow is beginning to transport a much more stable marine air mass into Southcentral, along with additional Pacific moisture. Thus, the weather pattern today will feature scattered shower activity for much of Southcentral from the southern Susitna Valley south and east. North of there, the unstable air mass along with an airflow that turns more out of the east later in the day will support a chance of isolated thunderstorms along the Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains. The overall coverage of thunderstorms will be much less today than previous days.

Another changing aspect to the forecast will be the gusty gap winds through Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley, and the Copper River Basin. As the low level flow turns southeasterly today, the winds will be forced through those gaps. Meanwhile the low over Southwest Alaska will help to further pull those winds westward. Today should be a bit cooler than yesterday for most of Southcentral, primarily due to significant cloud cover and scattered rain shower activity.

Then on Monday, the upper low driving the weather across Southcentral will shift eastward near Kodiak Island in the morning. This will aid in the development of a North Pacific low over the Gulf through the day. Strengthening easterly windflow ahead of the low will get up to gale force across the offshore waters south of Middleton Island. Meanwhile, the lift to the east of the upper low which has been over Southcentral the past several days will shift with the low over the Gulf. Thus, most inland areas will finally get a break from all precipitation on Monday as ridging and sunshine return, along with somewhat warmer temperatures. Cloud cover and rain will persist along the coast due to the Gulf low, but since the low is expected to track eastward, the strongest winds will remain well offshore of the coast. Even some coastal locations may see some sunshine at the end of the day. The low will also begin turning the winds to the offshore northerly direction on Monday, which in addition to beginning a drier weather pattern, will end the gap winds as well.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

The upper level low that tracked south into the region yesterday can be observed spinning in place over Southwest AK. This is as expected. This means more thunderstorm activity today, though not quite as intense as yesterday. Widely scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast. This will be the last day of widespread convection. Weather begins to clear out tomorrow with quiet weather for the first part of this week.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

Little change to the weather again today. High pressure continues to dominate much of the Bering with stratus and fog trapped beneath it. Low pressure continues to march slowly east just south of the Aleutians, with its stretched out front riding right over the islands themselves. This will continue cloud cover and rain showers for them. More of the same for the next few days with high confidence in the forecast.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday).

High pressure lingers across the Bering with easterly winds and waves across the lower half and southerly winds and waves over the upper half through Thu. High uncertainty comes with the initial position and track of a North Pacific low, bringing problems with movements and wind directions with the low through Thu. Confidence is good for less than small craft winds and waves south of the Aleutians through Thu.

Over the Gulf, a low center will track across the Gulf, however certainty is low for frontal positions through Thu. East to southeast winds and waves expected across the northern Gulf less than small craft speeds, shifting to northerly winds and waves around Kodiak Island and the western Gulf by Thu.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Monday through Thursday).

By Tuesday, the upper level low that is near Southwest Alaska today will have moved over Kodiak Island and be in the central Gulf of Alaska. This will start the period with high pressure over Southwest Alaska and a front along the north Gulf coast. The high pressure is not terribly strong but should spread over Southcentral Alaska for the middle of next week. Southwest Alaska will be susceptible for low stratus to advect into the region off the Bering Sea, though rainfall should mainly be afternoon and evening showers over higher terrain.

Afternoon and evening showers are also likely over interior parts of Southcentral Alaska throughout the period.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gales . 351. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . BJB MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/EZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNDA2 - 9459450 - Sand Point, AK 45 mi59 min N 11 G 12 52°F 51°F1008.6 hPa

Wind History for Port Moller, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sand Point, AK46 mi39 minN 1010.00 miOvercast61°F46°F59%0 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE15SE15SE15SE15SE15------------------------N5NE6N8NE6NE8N9N10
1 day agoN12N12NE10N10N10------------------------CalmSE6SE10SE10SE10SE14SE14
2 days agoN10N7--N10NW10----------------------NW14N10NW15N18NW15NE13N16NE12

Tide / Current Tables for Dent Point, Stepovak Bay, Alaska
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Dent Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:08 AM AKDT     3.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM AKDT     5.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:10 PM AKDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:31 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:36 PM AKDT     6.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.43.13.33.74.24.85.25.34.94.33.52.721.71.92.53.44.55.4665.75.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fox Bay, Kupreanof Peninsula, Alaska
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Fox Bay
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Sun -- 02:08 AM AKDT     3.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:10 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM AKDT     5.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:10 PM AKDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:31 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:37 PM AKDT     6.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.43.13.33.74.24.85.25.34.94.33.52.721.71.92.53.44.45.45.965.75.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.