Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ivanof Bay, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, a low resides over Saint Lawrence Island while its front extends across Bristol Bay and the Southwest mainland.
Precipitation will continue to spread across Southwest this morning as the front continues eastward. Precipitation will begin to diminish this morning for the Kuskokwim Delta and western Bristol Bay. For Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula, the heaviest rainfall will occur between today into Tuesday morning.
Locations from Nikolski to the southern AKPen will also receive rainfall, however, rates will be much lower.

Southerly to southwesterly small-craft winds will persist across the southern Bering this morning and diminish this afternoon.
Considering the strength of the wind, extended fetch, and orientation to the shore, high surf and water levels of 1 to 2 feet above normal high tide may be possible during this period.
Though winds will not as strong in Bristol Bay, water levels there could be pushed up to 1 foot above normal high tides. Winds across most areas begin to weaken this afternoon. Small-craft winds will continue across the northern Bering and western Kuskokwim Delta coast as a secondary shortwave rotates around the low.

The low begins to occlude this morning and loops around Saint Lawrence Island before continuing to the Seward Peninsula by Wednesday morning. This will continue to draw waves of precipitation across Southwest Alaska and the northern AKPen through Wednesday. Additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is expected through Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible for higher terrain, particularly along the western Alaska Range/Kuskokwim Valley, and between Kipnuk and Dillingham. For Umnak Island, Unalaska, and the southern AKPen, less than half an inch of rain is expected through Wednesday.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

A more stagnant pattern is on the way for late this week. An upper level low will remain nearly stationary over Norton Sound/Western Alaska through Friday. By Saturday, an Arctic upper low dives south and interacts with this Western Alaska low, after which model disagreement over this interaction leads to lower forecast confidence through the weekend. Generally, in the absence of strong surface features, expect lighter winds and rain showers over the Southern Mainland, with more robust showers under the upper low in Southwest Alaska. Ridging over the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands will likely lead to areas of clouds and fog.


AVIATION

PANC...Strong southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will persist through the TAF period, with periodic gusts to 35 kts. While VFR conditions (with ceilings greater than 5000 ft) will likely continue through the morning, rain showers and lower ceilings are expected to fill in by mid-to- late afternoon. However, the exact timing of this remains uncertain given the strong downslope flow mixing in drier air, which could delay the onset of rain and lower ceilings. MVFR conditions are possible through the evening and into tomorrow morning, with potential dips into IFR during stronger showers.