Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Perryville, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, a small low is moving into the Kuskokwim Delta region.
As a result, scattered snow showers are moving through the region.
Snow or rain/snow showers and low stratus/fog are also present in the Bristol Bay region. The low will slowly move through the Kuskokwim Delta through the night before dissipating Tuesday afternoon. Steadier snow is expected Monday night/Tuesday morning before this happens. Meanwhile, a frontal system is pushing into the Bering from the west. A long, vertical swath of gale force winds and precipitation will accompany the front as it moves over the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning. The front will move eastward toward the mainland through the course of the day on Tuesday, arriving at the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern Aleutians by Tuesday night/Early Wednesday morning. The front will push onshore by Wednesday afternoon, bringing elevated winds and initially snowfall. Higher winds near the Kuskokwim Coast and Nunivak Island may lead to areas of blowing snow. Warmer air will accompany this front, so precipitation will likely transition to rain/snow, especially over Bristol Bay.

By Thursday morning, the low will dissipate inland. after this point, a ridge builds into the Bering, limiting winds and decreasing precipitation chances. As Thursday progresses, a low south of the Alaska Peninsula will allow for some increased wind speeds. Also, a trough will arrive behind the ridge in the Western Aleutians allowing for higher wind speeds and precipitation.
Looking quite a bit forward to the weekend has a strong North Pacific low moving into the Bering. This will likely bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy precipitation somewhere in the Aleutians. Uncertainty is high at this time with its track, strength, and timing, so continue to monitor the forecast for updates as the evolution of the low becomes more clear.

-JAR



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A vertically stacked low over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula for the second half of this week slides east into the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds ranging from small craft to gales along with diminishing precipitation are anticipated on the back side of this system for the Eastern Aleutians and AKPen. For Southwest and much of Southcentral Alaska, seasonably cool temperatures and relatively quiet weather is expected Friday into Saturday, with the greatest chances for periods of precipitation remaining mainly along the northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island as the low tracks towards Southeast Alaska.

The bigger story continues to be a much stronger storm lifting out of the North Pacific towards the Central Aleutians this weekend. Deterministic models and ensemble guidance are loosely in agreement for a sub 950 mb low reaching the Aleutian Chain sometime Saturday into Sunday as it merges with an upper level trough in the western Bering Sea. Confidence is currently high that as the storm arrives, the Aleutian Chain is likely to see moderate to heavy rain and sustained high end gale to storm force winds through the weekend. As we head further into the weekend and into early next week, there remains a high degree of uncertainty with regards to the track and intensification of the low as it tracks across the Aleutians and into the southern Bering as model spread significantly increases by this point. While most guidance generally favors the storm remaining over the southern Bering, the GFS continues to depict the storm deepening to a sub 940 mb low and tracking north into the central Bering. If this scenario were to play out, impacts such as heavy rain, a prolonged period of strong south-southeasterly winds, and high seas would affect much more of the region including the Pribilof Islands as well as the Kuskokwim Delta coast through the early part of next week. The impacts from this storm will be highly dependent on the storm track, and we continue to closely monitor and update the forecast as confidence in the strength and track of the storm increases.

-JH

AVIATION

PANC...VFR winds and ceilings to persist through the TAF Period.
With the departure of an area of low pressure over the Gulf, high pressure will settle over Southcentral Alaska. This should allow for drier conditions, accompanied by light winds and VFR ceilings.

-BL