Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Thorne Bay, AK

SHORT TERM
A shortwave trough which departed overnight has left in its wake a wide swath of low ceilings and stratus across the northern half of the area. This cloud deck has been augmented by the ridge over the Gulf, which has helped rebuild the marine layer along the outer coast. Developing onshore flow helped. The marine layer work its way into the southern half of the panhandle overnight. While the southern panhandle will see some improvement in conditions through the day, am less confident in an significant clearing happening across the north. Instead, think that the onshore flow will help keep the stratus deck and the potential for drizzle largely in place for much of the north through the day, and potentially even into Sunday night, with chances for some embedded showers.

Winds will largely be on the lighter side, although still anticipate breezier conditions for usual hot spot areas like northern Lynn Canal and the Icy Strait Corridor. Temperatures will remain moderate, with the cloud deck preventing most areas from seeing significant diurnal temperature swings.

LONG TERM
/Monday through Thursday/...
Conditions remain relatively benign across the panhandle with the potential for lingering showers to start off the week. Onshore flow in the upper levels, combined with a high pressure in the northern Pacific, is expected to keep a persistent marine layer in the gulf and bring damper, overcast conditions to the panhandle.
Chances for the onshore showers look to last into early Wednesday morning, though there is some uncertainty for Wednesday into Thursday on if these showers will continue. If the upper level low moves southward enough to sit over the panhandle Wednesday, it will make the flow more offshore, and with the surface ridge amplitude offshore increasing and making the W-ly onshore flow become more NW-ly the precipitation chances would diminish over the panhandle and give a break for the area. A low will begin to develop in the far western Gulf Thursday, this system looking to bring more widespread rainfall back to the panhandle Friday.

AVIATION
/Until 18Z Monday/...A ridge of high pressure poised over the eastern Gulf of Alaska is continuing to keep onshore flow over Southeast Alaska, keeping a marine layer low stratus cloud deck & a slight chance of light rain showers / drizzle over the region through the TAF period, especially for the Outer Coast & through the western half of the Icy Strait Corridor. This has been & will continue to give flight conditions within the MVFR/IFR category range through the period for the aforementioned region.
Elsewhere, primarily VFR conditions are expected with a temporary dip into MVFR possible under an isolated light rain shower. As far as SFC winds are concerned, most places should remain rather benign through the period with the exception of the Northern Lynn Canal region, including PAGY & PAHN, which will keep gusty southerly winds through this evening from a tightened south to north oriented pressure gradient parked over that area. LLWS values remain benign through the forecast period.

MARINE
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska behind the shortwave Saturday is leading to westerly winds of 15-20 kts Sunday morning. Through Sunday, the strongest northwesterly winds of 20-25 kts with seas up to 9 feet are expected to occuring from the southwest coast of Prince of Wales Island toward Dixon Entrance. Monday into Tuesday, the ridge is expected to weaken, so the winds will weaken as well.

Inside (Inner Channels): This morning, the strongest winds are occuring in Lynn Canal with Eldred Rock seeing 20 kt southerly winds and Clarence Strait seeing 10-15 kt northwesterly winds reported in Ketchikan. With a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, westerly winds up to 20 kts are possible for Cross Sound, the Icy Strait Corridor, and near Cape Decision. Monday, the ridge is expected to weaken, which will lead to overall weaker winds by ocean entrances.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641-661>663.