Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Naukati Bay, AK

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Decent break in weather for much of the region through the weekend and into the start of next week.

- Main threat to mariners and aviators is periods of dense fog, most likely in the morning and evening hours.

SHORT TERM
Somewhat benign weather continues for SE AK with continued fog chances through the morning hours with a gradual increase in northerly winds. Aloft, we have a ridge upstream with a trough moving north to south in British Columbia through tomorrow morning. The reflection at the surface is a somewhat stable high pressure in Yukon with gradually dropping pressure in the southern panhandle, increasing the northerly gradient.
Temperatures in the Yukon continue to drop through tonight, density differences will drive katabatic dry winds, mixing the fog out north to south. Expecting some recovery in the Yukon tomorrow morning, which will relax the pressure gradient somewhat, but still keep winds elevated in Skagway.

LONG TERM
Mid range pattern remains consistent; an amplified ridge will remain in place over southeast, with the axis stretching into southcentral AK. This feature will continue to block large systems from making landfall over southeast, with a cool arctic airmass dominating the Yukon and B.C. territories driving outflow for the inner channels. Magnitude of outflow winds looks to remain below gale force for the most part with the exception of gale force gusts for localized areas like Taku Inlet and perhaps Taiya. By the weekend, a prominent system in the far southwest gulf will push some moisture into southeast bringing light precipitation and increasing wave energy along the coast.

Though there is still lots of spread between models, overall guidance suggests a small upper level disturbance moving into the eastern gulf Saturday night. The resulting surface inflection looks to send a front into the panhandle through Sunday, bringing widespread precipitation back to the panhandle into Monday. This system has the possibility of bringing gale force winds along the outer coast, with strong gusts pushing up into the channels. The pressure gradient in the northern panhandle will attempt to keep strong northerly outflow winds through Lynn Canal as the low moves inland. Temperatures will be the more uncertain part of the extended forecast, as outflow during the week bringing cooler temperatures southward will be combating the southerly onshore flow associated with the low. CPC guidance suggests overall warming temperatures next week with the more active weather, but due to the weakening outflow winds persisting in Lynn Canal, northern panhandle communities still have a chance to see this precipitation fall as snow before most likely changing over to rain by early next week. Precipitation still looks to remain on the lighter side of what is typical for Southeast Alaska, though continued onshore flow and another potential broad low following behind should keep relatively consistent precipitation in the forecast for next week.

AVIATION
/through 06z Wednesday/ VFR flight conditions ongoing for extreme northern panhandle communities under clear skies with outflow winds continuing for Haines and Skagway with sustained winds 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 25 to 35kts. Further southward towards the Icy Strait Corridor, general VFR flight conditions prevail under SKC for Juneau, however intermittent fog has been reducing CIGS and visbys down to IFR to LIFR at times. For TAF sites Sitka eastward to Kake and Petersburg Southward, general LIFR to IFR flight conditions continue with ongoing FG or FZFG reducing visbys down to 1/2 SM or less and/or ceilings AoB 300ft. Moving into the overnight period, general improvement in FG across the N panhandle, with Gustavus clearing out over the last few hours and Juneau seemingly following suit. However, keeping an eye on an area of patchy dense fog moving northward up Stephens Passage, so can't rule out brief resurgence of FG overnight for Juneau with visbys as low as 1/4SM before improvement through Tuesday morning.
By 00z, anticipating widespread VFR flight conditions across the panhandle as outflow winds take hold.

Winds overnight into Tuesday, outside of Skagway and Haines, will be around 10kts or less. Main wind concern will be Skagway by tomorrow afternoon as winds increase to 25kts with gusts near 40kts likely. No significant LLWS concerns through the period, but noticing JAWS highlighting NE-ly winds around 3kft near 20 to 30 kts, expecting these to decrease through the overnight period.

MARINE
Outside (Gulf and coastal waters): WSW swell of 6 to 8 ft at 12 to 14 seconds continues to impact the coast with winds of gentle to moderate breezes. Outflow winds build through the week, with fresh to strong breezes coming out of Cross Sound by Friday. Gale force low likely along the northern coast over the weekend.

Inside (Inner Channels): Outflow continues to build across the inner channels through the week with speeds of strong breezes to near-gale force. One benefit of outflow will help limit fog potential as we move through the week. Mariners should continue to watch for fog development in protected bays and inlets.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ320-321- 324>327.
Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.