Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Alexander, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:10AMSunset 4:10PM Monday January 27, 2020 6:31 PM AKST (03:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:40AMMoonset 8:36PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ033 Southern Chatham Strait- 214 Pm Akst Mon Jan 27 2020
.small craft advisory Tuesday...
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers in the evening.
Tue..SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
Tue night..SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. NEar ocean entrances, seas 12 ft building to 17 ft late. Rain.
Wed..S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft, except 22 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Wed night..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 22 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Thu..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Alexander, AK
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location: 56.17, -134.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 272255 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 155 PM AKST Mon Jan 27 2020

SHORT TERM. Very active and high impact weather pattern continues in the short term. High winds, heavy snow and rain, and very high seas are expected over the next 48 hours and potentially longer.

Currently SE AK is between systems as a large upper trough remains centered over the western Gulf. Expansive cold airmass is noted over the western and central Gulf and some of this air will be streaming eastward over SE AK over the next 24 hours. This cold air will be modified somewhat by its traverse over the warmer Gulf waters and thus will not be as deep or as cold as the airmass that was in place ahead of the system from a couple of days ago. A shortwave rotating around the main upper trough will enhance snow shower activity through the night over the NE Gulf coast and thus have extended the Winter Weather Advisory there through midnight to account for this. Winds remain strong out of the south over upper Lynn Canal this afternoon due to strong SW flow over the mtns and the resulting lee troughing effect increasing local pressure gradients. These winds should gradually diminish Tuesday as the next storm approaches from the S.

Attention then turns to the vigorous PV max now seen on GOES 17 WV imagery over the NPAC along 50N 160W. All guidance indicates that as this PV lifts into the Gulf on Tuesday, that some degree of phasing will occur between it and the polar trough over the western Gulf. Surface low will deepen to around 955 mb on Tuesday over the western Gulf. Rapidly occluding and storm force front will move into the eastern Gulf Tuesday night and across the Panhandle Wednesday morning. Surface wave looks to form on the front and track either along or just E of 140W late Tuesday night. This is a very favorable track for high winds over the southern Panhandle and Gulf coastal areas. Low level wind fields are quite impressive, with 80 to 90 kt of SE flow at 925 and 850 mb. Forecast profiles from hi-res models show 50 to 55kt as low as 500 ft near Ketchikan, Sitka, and Prince of Wales Islands late Tuesday night. Surface pressure gradients will favor high winds over much of the southern and central panhandle with the PASI-PAKT gradient peaking at 16mb late Tuesday night. Storm force winds will spread from the eastern Gulf into Clarence Strait with gales over many of the rest of the inside waters S of Lynn Canal. Wind gusts to 60 mph or higher are expected in land areas adjacent to these channels so went with a High Wind Warning for a large part of the southern and central Panhandle for this time frame.

Further north, at least some colder air will be in place so that heavy snow will once again be an issue for far upper Lynn Canal. 60 to 80 kt of deep S'ly to SE'ly moisture transport will likely lead to snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour at times for the Haines and Klondike Highways. With the cold air source being a longer trajectory over the Gulf, think that sea level Haines and Skagway will be able to transition to a rain/snow mix by Wednesday morning as a mix out of the cold air will occur. Further up the highways, heavy snow will continue through Wednesday. When it's all said and done, expect yet another 12 to 24 inches of snow for areas already hard hit by last weekends storm. Highest amounts will be over the upper elevations of both highways.

Confidence is high on the impact of this storm but a bit lower in the details, such as timing of the high winds and snow to rain changeover etc.

LONG TERM. /Wednesday through Sunday/ . The active weather pattern appears very likely to continue in the extended range into the weekend. The split flow pattern that is in place is challenging in the sense that Southeast AK could experience rain or snow, but small details that are difficult to devine in the long term forecast are not quite available. We do know that precipitation will likely continue to fall each day through Saturday, and if snow does fall, it could be impactful.

Ensemble agreement is good in the overall synoptic pattern over the Gulf of Alaska. Large upper trof will remain in place across the western parts of AK extending over the W gulf. Early Wednesday an upper shortwave rotating around the trof will move N across the eastern gulf and lift across the panhandle. At the surface the low pressure system remains and issue with a complex of multiple waves possible as the low moves northward into the N gulf through Wednesday. Low level temperatures will briefly warm as the front lifts north across the panhandle early Wednesday, but colder air is expected to wrap in behind the low and across the E gulf and panhandle later in the day. Currently expecting this system to provide a rain/snow mix across the Icy Strait corridor, including Juneau, while the more impactful snowfall is likely across the N Lynn areas including Haines and Skagway where temperatures will likely remain near or below freezing.

Another wave will move NE out of the NPAC into the SE gulf by Thursday morning. This system has the potential to the be an impactful wind event where and if it makes landfall across the panhandle. Operational models all depict a rapidly developing low, but handle the details very differently. The placement of the low will also determine where impactful snow will be possible Thursday. Did increase winds to gales in the E gulf but future work will need to be done with better consensus. By Friday, there is more disagreement between the models, but still expect a surface low to be churning in the N gulf through Saturday. By Sunday there is a chance for a brief break as a ridge moves east across the gulf and panhandle. Overall forecast confidence is average.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 3 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ023-026>028. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ018-019. Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ018. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-031-033-036-053.



DEL/DDH

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 5 mi49 min Calm G 1.9
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 94 mi31 min SSE 15 G 20 39°F 1004 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAAP

Wind History from AAP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--1--NW15
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------------------------------Calm--2
1 day ago--1--1----------------------------------NE15
G25
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G15
2 days ago--W5--N5--4------------------------------Calm--E1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ommaney, Alaska
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Cape Ommaney
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:27 AM AKST     9.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:05 AM AKST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:40 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:49 PM AKST     10.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:19 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:36 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:32 PM AKST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.48.49.49.48.56.95.243.43.85.16.98.79.910.39.67.95.63.21.1-0-0.113

Tide / Current Tables for Port Conclusion, Baranof Island, Alaska
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Port Conclusion
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:28 AM AKST     10.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:04 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:06 AM AKST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:40 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:50 PM AKST     11.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:19 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:36 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:33 PM AKST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.49.610.810.89.67.75.74.13.43.95.47.59.711.211.710.996.43.61.3-0-0.11.23.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.