Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrangell and , AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 011356 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 556 AM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SHORT TERM. /Thursday and Friday/ Dry weather to start out the short term won't last long as rain moves back into the region by Friday morning. Low clouds and dense fog have been reported across much of the central and southern Panhandle through the early morning hours on Thursday. Dense fog advisories are in effect until 9 AM for zones 24, 26, 27, and 28. Expect skies to clear out through the morning leading to a pleasant fall afternoon. Light sea breezes may develop during the peak heating of the afternoon with temperatures rising into the upper 50s and low 60s.

By Thursday evening, clouds begin streaming back into the region ahead of the next rain maker approaching the Panhandle. A ~975mb low heading north toward Kodiak Island will swing a front into the coast just after midnight on Friday. Rain will spread eastward through the morning hours and stick around for much of the day. Despite the front weakening as it pushes through, it still features a healthy stream of moisture coming up from the south. Ensembles show IVT values approaching 750 kg m/s along the coast and PW nearing all time max values for this time of year around 1.25 to 1.50 inches. Models are also indicating a small wave riding up the front, further enhancing rainfall coverage and intensity. There are some discrepancies where the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up. The GFS and hi-res models place highest amounts around the Central Panhandle and along the Coast Mountains whereas the EC has the heaviest precipitation further north and west across the northern Panhandle. Decided to blend to the GFS and Hi-res solutions with 24 hr rainfall totals 1 to 1.5 inches from Juneau to Sitka to Wrangell with slightly lower amounts across the far north and south.

Winds will pick up ahead of the front with up to 20 kt southerlies expected in the central and southern Inner Channels and small craft conditions through Icy Strait and Cape Spencer. Gales expected in the coastal waters and in the central gulf with the strongest winds further north and west towards Cape Suckling.

Overall forecast confidence is average. No major changes made to the short term. Used NAM/GFS for small updates.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through Wednesday/ As of 10pm Wednesday. Friday's front will be departing to the east early Saturday morning. Showers will linger, especially along the northern gulf coast due to CAA and SWLY onshore flow. Most locations will see a diminishing trend to the showers through mid-day, especially on the lee side of the mountains, with sunny breaks. As with all cold fronts in the fall time, will need to watch for possible thunderstorm development over the gulf.

Another low moves into the western gulf from the SW late Saturday night. The assoc front will likely cause another round of gale force winds over the outside waters and heavy rain looks likely for Sunday. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches are forecasted near Yakutat for this event and around 1 inch elsewhere. Some models are showing enhancement near a triple point, which may shift the focus of the greatest rainfall rates to the southern panhandle Sunday night into Monday. Warm air is again drawn up by this system, but not to the extreme of the previous systems. More pronounced will be the cooling trend behind it and into the start of next week. Again, the CAA and onshore flow will keep potential for showers in the forecast and thunderstorm potential will need to be monitored. The coldest air looks to stay over the western gulf/Aleutians, but could see brisk mornings if timing of breaks in the clouds line up with overnight hours. Also the snow level will likely fall to the level of White Pass mid-week. Models remain in relatively good agreement on the timing of fronts through the mid range, so only minor adjustments were made to the extended forecast.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ021-024- 026-028. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ042-043-051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-041-053.



CM/Ferrin

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	42 mi	40 min	ENE 1.9 G 1.9	49°F			1024 hPa	48°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	63 mi	56 min		53°F	53°F		1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Wrangell, AK	31 mi	54 min	N 0	0.25 mi	Fog	48°F	48°F	100%	1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAWG

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Tide / Current Tables for Blake Island, Bradfield Canal, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Olive Cove, Zimovia Strait, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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