Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrangell and , AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 281543 CCA AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Juneau AK 743 AM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SHORT TERM. The biggest factors to impact the weather for the next day or so will be the outflow winds and the lows that will spread rain and/or snow to the southern half of the panhandle.

The winds got a slight boost across the panhandle, for the marine waters, although the land areas did not quite get the same boost. The pressure gradient increases Sunday, so expect Lynn Canal winds to rise to max gales or Storm Force, especially for the Northern Lynn Canal area. Winds are also a little gusty for downtown Juneau and Douglas. Outflow from interior passes and a weak mountain wave over the icefield has wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Stronger outflow should be found Sunday morning to Sunday evening, as it streams out into the northeast gulf of Alaska. So will see some strong wind headlines over the next 48 hours.

Cooler air is headed to the northern panhandle so low temps and highs will be trending lower. Lows may lower to the 10-15F range in the northern panhandle. If the cold air advection is stronger, may even see single digits. The cooler temperatures will extend southward, reaching the mid 20s for the south central panhandle.

One low over the southeastern gulf is responsible for the light snow or flurries happening this morning for the central panhandle and rain over the southern panhandle. The low moves to Dixon Entrance / Southern panhandle and falls apart. A second low will move across the western Alaska Range, developing a new surface low, and then deepening slightly as it tracks SE to be west of Dixon Entrance Sunday morning. The moisture plume will spread more rain and/or snow into the southern panhandle. In this situation, a band of snow could cause a couple inches to fall across the south central panhandle Sunday into Monday. Will keep an eye on the situation but statements shouldn't be needed.

The tapering off of pops continues over the panhandle Monday night so pops in the southern third lowers to chance level.

LONG TERM. /Monday through Saturday night/ . As of 10 pm Friday . Anomalous upper-level high centered across northeast mainland Alaska early next week will displace arctic air southward with temperatures well below normal through mid week. Ensembles show a general consensus that the upper ridge should gradually weaken as it shifts eastward through the middle of next week, eventually breaking down the strong arctic connection and allowing temperatures to begin slowly warming. Strong outflow winds and drying conditions continue Monday due to tight pressure gradient between arctic high over the Yukon and residual low near Haida Gwaii. Winds gradually weaken through Tuesday as the high shifts east and the low dissipates. Later in the week with the return to more seasonable temperatures likely see low pressure systems return to the gulf.

Computer models don't like blocking ridges. Mainly with respect to timing of the blocking ridge break down or shift in location and how upstream waves will react. This pattern seems to be no different due to the fact model spread is rather large as early as Tuesday evening. Continued to use a blend of GFS/ECMWF for Monday with a transition to WPC for rest of the week. Forecast confidence is low, expect changes.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind until 6 AM AKDT early this morning for AKZ025. Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ018. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-043-051-053. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031-032-034-041-042-052.



Bezenek/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	42 mi	88 min	ESE 2.9 G 5.1	40°F			995 hPa	36°F
KECA2 - 9450460 - Ketchikan, AK	63 mi	50 min	S 1.9 G 8.9	39°F	44°F		995.8 hPa

Wind History for Ketchikan, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Wrangell, AK	31 mi	1.7 hrs	E 10	10.00 mi	Light Rain	36°F	32°F	86%	997.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAWG

Wind History from AWG (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Blake Island, Bradfield Canal, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Olive Cove, Zimovia Strait, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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