Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wrangell and, AK

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Wednesday a gale force system brings widespread rain to the region.

- Showers over the panhandle on Thursday, then another front weakening and falling apart Friday.

- Quick look at the holiday weekend is, it is becoming more likely that a potentially stronger Summer system to move to the panhandle Sunday.

SHORT TERM
The active (by spring standards) pattern looks set to continue through the duration of the period, as a series of troughs and ridges continue to move up along the eastern flank of a Rossby wave over the Pacific. A ridge moving over the southern panhandle will bring drier weather through late Tuesday night for areas south of Frederick Sound. The northern half of SE AK will see lingering showers as moisture rotates in along the ridge axis, further fueled by the remnants of a shortwave trough which will move in through Tuesday evening.

On Wednesday, a far better developed system moves into the Gulf, deepening as it moves toward Anchorage. The low will throw a gale force front into the panhandle, which is progged to arrive Wednesday morning across the Outer Coast and by Wednesday afternoon for the rest of the area. This front will bring with it periods of widespread moderate rain and windy conditions. Given the presence of saturation across the atmospheric column, most of SE AK will see a total of ~1 to 2 inches of rain. Given the system's trajectory,the NE Gulf Coast favored for the greater totals. The far southern panhandle will be the exception, as they could receive lower totals of ~0.5 to 1 inch as the bulk of the initial system moves north, although a trailing cold front moving through Wednesday night will bring some additional rainfall to this area. Flooding concerns are not expected, as snow levels will remain on the lower side for this time of year, and so do not expect much augmentation of the streams from mountain runoff, alongside the rain itself. Some snow may mix in with rain during the overnight hours - especially Thursday night - at White Pass, but do not expect any significant accumulations.
Gusty winds will also be widespread, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph on Wednesday across much of central and northern SE AK, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph for the southern panhandle.

The system will depart on Thursday, with another ridge moving across the panhandle. Similar to the previous ridge, the best chances of some lingering rain showers will be for the northern half of the area and the inner coastal mountains, while the south will be mostly on the drier side by late Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will trend toward the cooler side, with low temperatures getting down into the low 40s or even upper 30s.

LONG TERM
/ Friday to Tuesday / A front sweeps the western gulf Thursday evening and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night and Friday. Yakutat should see good rain rates Thursday night and early. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend.

For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / Damp conditions look to be the norm for Saturday as an area of vorticity/trough like feature moves through the panhandle. Highest likelihood of precipitation is from the central panhandle southward, though the amount of precip looks to be light. For Sunday into Monday however, what was looking like a decent strength system heading toward Dixon Entrance area yesterday, has switched tracks farther south, taking any higher winds and precip mostly with it. Only the GFS is keeping more impactful winds and precip in the area for Sunday into Monday (though it is an outlier), and even then it is mostly for the southern half of the panhandle. This farther south track does mean a higher likelihood of drier weather for the northern panhandle Sunday into Monday due to downsloping conditions from easterly flow, and there is a chance that the drier weather could extend into the south as well if the current southward trend of the low track continues. Monday could also turn out to be one of the warmer days of the weekend with high temps approaching the upper 50s with several breaks in the cloud cover possible. Into mid next week the trend reverses back to damp and cool conditions as more systems come into the panhandle from the gulf.

MARINE
Winds continue to diminish in the wake of a front which moved through on Sunday, although respectable southerly flow will persist in Northern Lynn Canal through the foreseeable future. A system moving across the Gulf on Tuesday arrives in SE AK on Wednesday, bringing gale force winds to the N and NE Gulf Coast, and small craft conditions to the inner channels.

Outside coastal waters: Winds have diminished substantially in the wake of the last system, and seas have trended down overnight down to 6 to 7 ft for most areas based upon buoy observations. Winds will trend upwards again on Tuesday across the Gulf, and by Tuesday night for the outer coast, as another system approaches SE AK. Expect the strongest winds to be largely focused around the northern gulf and gulf coast, though gale force winds could extend as far south as Cape Edgecumbe. Waveheights should ramp back up as this system moves in, reaching 12-15 ft on Wednesday. Winds and waveheights then diminish late Wednesday into Thursday as the system departs.

Inside Channels: Similar to Sunday night, winds across the inner channels diminished overnight Monday into Tuesday. The lone exception once again was Lynn Canal, where elevated southerly flow of ~20 kt persist. Winds will ramp back up to 10-15 kt on Tuesday across the board, as southerly flow is sustained by a weak wave moving onshore. Wednesday will see widespread sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30 kt as a strong warm front moves onshore, alongside elevated seas, with ocean entrances reaching 10+ feet, and areas where swell reaches seeing additional inclement conditions.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ323-325- 327.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661.