Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Petersburg, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:16AMSunset 9:50PM Thursday July 16, 2020 5:35 AM AKDT (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:16AMMoonset 6:04PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 355 Am Akdt Thu Jul 16 2020
Today..NE wind 10 kt early in the morning becoming light, then becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less.
Fri..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Petersburg, AK
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location: 56.63, -132.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 152309 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 309 PM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

SHORT TERM. A low pressure system continues to spin in the gulf, encouraging moisture transport into the southern and central panhandle. The impulse responsible for impressive rainfall rates in some places earlier today has largely spent its energy, and while additional accumulation is expected through Wednesday night and part of Thursday, the amounts will be lower than what have been experienced over the last few days.

The low will push east through the panhandle Wednesday night into Thursday, ultimately moving into BC and out of the area. Behind it, a ridge will start to build in the gulf Wednesday night, bringing with it a marine layer which could see low-lying stratus reach parts of the coast like Yakutat, though if stratus does develop in quantity, am not currently expecting it to penetrate very far inland. On Thursday, the ridge itself will slowly move into the panhandle, bringing a S oriented wind regime beginning in the afternoon and evening hours. The ridge will also encourage the development of breaks in the clouds, particularly in the Northern panhandle, especially during the latter half of the day. These breaks will help high temperatures to rise into the mid 60s, with the northern panhandle being favored for the warmest weather. Friday will see cloud cover rebuilding over SE Alaska as a weak shortwave moves across the Gulf towards the area. This shortwave will lack the favorable conditions enjoyed by the current system impacting SE Alaska, and should not have as much rain associated with it.

Wind and marine concerns will be primarily limited to the outer coastal waters and Clarence Strait. The outer coastal waters will see some higher seas through Thursday in some areas south of Cape Edgecumbe. Most of the inner channels should remain at or below 15 kt, with the exception of Clarence Strait which will blow from the SE at 20 kts early in the evening on Wednesday before trending downwards, Lynn Canal will also increase in speed to 20 kts Thursday afternoon, driven by the pressure gradient and thermal heating.

Fire weather concerns remain minimal, as rain has helped to saturate the panhandle, and high temperatures will remain in the 50s and 60s across the region. The GFS and NAM were the models of choice, and forecaster confidence is average.

LONG TERM. /Friday through next Wednesday/ Rain, showers, precipitation . whatever word you use to describe liquid falling from the clouds, will most likely happen in the long term. A large ridge of high pressure over the central and northern Pacific will continue to build through the weekend. The ridge axis sets up south and east of the Panhandle, with southwesterly flow pumping ample gulf moisture into the region. A strong baroclinic zone will form on the north side of the ridge with multiple systems riding along it increasing precipitation coverage and intensity. Persistent clouds and showers appear likely from Friday through Monday.

Clouds will be increasing Friday as flow becomes onshore in all levels of the atmosphere. Most of the showers initially will be terrain induced along the Coast Mountains and higher terrain across Southeast Alaska. A weak front associated with a surface feature near the Kenai Peninsula will swing through Friday evening enhancing shower activity, especially along the Outer Coast and in the northern Panhandle.

The chance for rain increases again Saturday and remains high through Monday. A low in the gulf will swing another front into the Panhandle Saturday afternoon, then right on its heals another system looks to barrel into the region. Both the ECMWF and GFS show multiple systems in the gulf Saturday and Sunday. This far out, there are still discrepancies between models regarding timing and placement of systems and fronts; so blended strongly with WPC rather than the deterministic models. GFS ensembles show a fetch of moisture flowing into the Panhandle with IVT values approaching 500 kg/m/s this weekend. EC standardized anomaly tables also show precipitable water values 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Confidence is high that this weekend through early next week will be very wet; however confidence is still lower regarding timing and placements of the systems. Towards the middle of next week, confidence remains very low as guidance keeps flip flopping between solutions. Latest model runs suggest a ridge starting to form towards mid week; however details as to where the ridge axis sets up are still unclear. Kept with WPC by keeping at least a chance for rain in the forecast for now. Will trend PoPs up or down later this week once guidance has a better handle on the set up.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041-042.



GFS/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 42 mi26 min NW 5.1 G 7 55°F 1009.7 hPa55°F
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 58 mi36 min SSW 2.9 G 2.9 52°F 1009.7 hPa (+1.4)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 77 mi74 min WNW 7 G 8 53°F 1010.2 hPa52°F

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, AK13 mi40 minN 00.50 miLight Rain Fog52°F52°F100%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3E5NE4NE7NE54E6E7E4SW4CalmE3N5CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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4SE953CalmE34CalmSE3SE4SE5E3SW13
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2 days agoCalmE3CalmW4CalmE4CalmW9E4W6SW5CalmNE3N4CalmCalmCalmW5Calm5
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Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Alaska
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Anchor Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:44 AM AKDT     2.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:19 PM AKDT     13.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:04 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:33 PM AKDT     6.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.614.81310.47.54.83.12.83.75.5810.612.613.513.312.110.28.16.76.67.79.61214.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg), Alaska Current
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Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:14 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:23 AM AKDT     -2.81 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:15 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:41 AM AKDT     2.44 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:35 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:52 PM AKDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:10 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:05 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:45 PM AKDT     2.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:30 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:21 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-2.4-2.8-2.7-1.9-0.411.82.32.41.70.6-0.4-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.4-0.21.11.92.32.41.80.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.