Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Petersburg, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 152309 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 309 PM AKDT Wed Jul 15 2020

SHORT TERM. A low pressure system continues to spin in the gulf, encouraging moisture transport into the southern and central panhandle. The impulse responsible for impressive rainfall rates in some places earlier today has largely spent its energy, and while additional accumulation is expected through Wednesday night and part of Thursday, the amounts will be lower than what have been experienced over the last few days.

The low will push east through the panhandle Wednesday night into Thursday, ultimately moving into BC and out of the area. Behind it, a ridge will start to build in the gulf Wednesday night, bringing with it a marine layer which could see low-lying stratus reach parts of the coast like Yakutat, though if stratus does develop in quantity, am not currently expecting it to penetrate very far inland. On Thursday, the ridge itself will slowly move into the panhandle, bringing a S oriented wind regime beginning in the afternoon and evening hours. The ridge will also encourage the development of breaks in the clouds, particularly in the Northern panhandle, especially during the latter half of the day. These breaks will help high temperatures to rise into the mid 60s, with the northern panhandle being favored for the warmest weather. Friday will see cloud cover rebuilding over SE Alaska as a weak shortwave moves across the Gulf towards the area. This shortwave will lack the favorable conditions enjoyed by the current system impacting SE Alaska, and should not have as much rain associated with it.

Wind and marine concerns will be primarily limited to the outer coastal waters and Clarence Strait. The outer coastal waters will see some higher seas through Thursday in some areas south of Cape Edgecumbe. Most of the inner channels should remain at or below 15 kt, with the exception of Clarence Strait which will blow from the SE at 20 kts early in the evening on Wednesday before trending downwards, Lynn Canal will also increase in speed to 20 kts Thursday afternoon, driven by the pressure gradient and thermal heating.

Fire weather concerns remain minimal, as rain has helped to saturate the panhandle, and high temperatures will remain in the 50s and 60s across the region. The GFS and NAM were the models of choice, and forecaster confidence is average.

LONG TERM. /Friday through next Wednesday/ Rain, showers, precipitation . whatever word you use to describe liquid falling from the clouds, will most likely happen in the long term. A large ridge of high pressure over the central and northern Pacific will continue to build through the weekend. The ridge axis sets up south and east of the Panhandle, with southwesterly flow pumping ample gulf moisture into the region. A strong baroclinic zone will form on the north side of the ridge with multiple systems riding along it increasing precipitation coverage and intensity. Persistent clouds and showers appear likely from Friday through Monday.

Clouds will be increasing Friday as flow becomes onshore in all levels of the atmosphere. Most of the showers initially will be terrain induced along the Coast Mountains and higher terrain across Southeast Alaska. A weak front associated with a surface feature near the Kenai Peninsula will swing through Friday evening enhancing shower activity, especially along the Outer Coast and in the northern Panhandle.

The chance for rain increases again Saturday and remains high through Monday. A low in the gulf will swing another front into the Panhandle Saturday afternoon, then right on its heals another system looks to barrel into the region. Both the ECMWF and GFS show multiple systems in the gulf Saturday and Sunday. This far out, there are still discrepancies between models regarding timing and placement of systems and fronts; so blended strongly with WPC rather than the deterministic models. GFS ensembles show a fetch of moisture flowing into the Panhandle with IVT values approaching 500 kg/m/s this weekend. EC standardized anomaly tables also show precipitable water values 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Confidence is high that this weekend through early next week will be very wet; however confidence is still lower regarding timing and placements of the systems. Towards the middle of next week, confidence remains very low as guidance keeps flip flopping between solutions. Latest model runs suggest a ridge starting to form towards mid week; however details as to where the ridge axis sets up are still unclear. Kept with WPC by keeping at least a chance for rain in the forecast for now. Will trend PoPs up or down later this week once guidance has a better handle on the set up.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041-042.



GFS/CM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK	42 mi	26 min	NW 5.1 G 7	55°F			1009.7 hPa	55°F
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK	58 mi	36 min	SSW 2.9 G 2.9	52°F			1009.7 hPa (+1.4)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK	77 mi	74 min	WNW 7 G 8	53°F			1010.2 hPa	52°F

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Petersburg, AK	13 mi	40 min	N 0	0.50 mi	Light Rain Fog	52°F	52°F	100%	1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg), Alaska Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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