Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Petersburg, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:16AMSunset 4:03PM Friday January 24, 2020 8:05 AM AKST (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 4:47PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 356 Am Akst Fri Jan 24 2020
Today..S wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Rain. Snow in the afternoon.
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow late.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
Sat night..S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Petersburg, AK
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location: 56.63, -132.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 241500 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 600 AM AKST Fri Jan 24 2020

SHORT TERM. /Through Saturday night/ Deep upper trof will remain over the central gulf through tonight, then begin to drift W toward the western gulf Sat and Sat night. A strong shortwave trof rotating around the base of the trof will lift NE across SE AK today. This shortwave will interact with another shortwave coming N out of the southern stream, with the two shortwaves merging as they move across SE AK. More southern stream shortwave energy will move N into the far eastern gulf and SE AK late tonight through Sat night. Models differ on timing of these shortwaves though. At the sfc, a sharp cold front will move slowly E across SE AK today into this evening, then stall across the far S by late tonight. This front will begin to drift N as a warm front Sat as low pressure develops over the NE PAC and heads N toward the eastern gulf. The track of the main low differs amongst the models though, due to the differences aloft and how much system interacts with the upper trof over the central and western gulf.

Main forecast adjustment for the today period was to increase snowfall across the central and N areas. The cold front will have moderate to locally heavy precip rates along and on the cold side of the front, enhanced by mid-level frontogenesis and strong upper level PV advection. There will be an onshore flow underneath the strong southerly flow above the frontal surface, which will also enhance precip rates due to upslope flow. Finally, there will be some lower level instability that develops shortly after the colder air moves in but ahead of the mid-level trof. All of this will likely mean a 1-3 hour burst of 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates from PAGS/PAOH to PAJN areas. Further N, better overrunning will mean a more prolonged snowfall, and they will likely also see a period of 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates later this morning to early afternoon. Given the above scenario, have issued winter weather advisories for zones 20-21-25 for today. Think 3-6 inches of snow will fall in those locations, but there is a risk that heavier snow could fall around the N part of the Juneau area due to the upslope flow. For Haines and Skagway, kept the winter storm warnings going, with another 5-10 inches of snow expected, with the highest amounts near Haines. Elsewhere across the central panhandle and central outer coast, looks like 1-4 inches of snow will fall today. Further S, precip should be mainly rain, although it may end as a period of snow during the afternoon. Do not expect more than 1 inch today in those areas.

Precip will transition to mainly snow showers for much of the area later this afternoon and evening. The most frequent/intense snow showers will be across the northern panhandle and NE gulf coast. There will likely still be some rain across the far SE part of the area tonight as the shot of colder air will not be as cold as further N.

Then, as southern stream systems move N into the eastern gulf for Sat-Sat night, precip will spread N through the area. Due to the model differences, timing of this precip is still questionable. One thing that will happen though is warmer air will move N into the area Sat into Sat night. Precip will likely start as snow for all but the far SE part of the panhandle, but transition to rain across the S Sat. Looking like at least mixed precip will reach the N-central area by late Sat night. The timing of the precip transition has a lower than average confidence though, with a faster changeover more likely than a slower one based on the model consensus right now. Later shifts can adjust this as needed.

Winds should not get above SCA levels through tonight. Potential for gales is there for Sat and Sat night though as low pressure moves in. Exact location of these stronger winds is still in doubt though, so kept winds limited to SCA levels attm.

LONG TERM. /Sunday through Friday/As of 10 PM Thursday/The picture for the long term continues to look muddy due to large variations within the various models, but what is clear is that we will be returning to a stormy pattern in the coming days. Deep troughing over mainland Alaska and into the Gulf will pool some rather cold air, which will mainly impact northern panhandle locations. around this troughing an active jet pattern will send a series of lows around the trough that will continue to keep flow southerly should bring warmer temperatures through much of the panhandle. This southerly flow will also provide ample moisture for these systems to play with. Given the time of year, and potential interactions with the arctic air camped out to the north, p-type issues will likely be the biggest forecast challenge for next week. North central and northern panhandle locations will be the ones to watch for potential heavy snowfall as some of these systems look like they will be pretty good precip makers. For the southern areas, temperatures look to remain warm enough that precip type should mainly remain as rain, however still can't rule out a few snowflakes mixing in if precip is occurring during the colder parts of the day.

As with any complex set-up, the models really begin to diverge wildly on specific timings and intensity of any particular storm, therefore the forecast remains largely unchanged with some blending to WPC guidance for continuity. The overall message is, it looks like it will be wet, but it is yet to be determined what form the precip will take with any real confidence, it just needs to be noted that the potential is there for at least one or two storms to bring heavy precipitation and strong winds in the coming week.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018-019. Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ020-021. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-036-041>043-051-052.



RWT/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCNA2 - Lincoln Rock, AK 42 mi56 min SE 28 G 41 44°F 987.9 hPa42°F
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 58 mi66 min W 9.9 G 12 37°F 988.5 hPa (-2.7)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 77 mi44 min WNW 12 G 13 35°F 990.4 hPa33°F

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, AK13 mi10 minN 010.00 miLight Rain39°F37°F93%989.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3W3SW3SW3CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5S3W3CalmW3Calm3--3SE10
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1 day ago53Calm4SE74CalmNE7E5SW4S3CalmW3SE46SE76S8E5CalmNW5E3SW5Calm
2 days agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmW5CalmW4Calm--------------CalmN7W6

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Alaska
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Anchor Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:00 AM AKST     18.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:04 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM AKST     3.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:27 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:44 PM AKST     New Moon
Fri -- 02:30 PM AKST     19.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:47 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:04 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM AKST     -2.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.714.217.218.217.113.99.65.63.43.769.613.817.319.419.417.2137.72.4-1.4-2.5-1.22.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg), Alaska Current
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Wrangell Narrows (off Petersburg)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:30 AM AKST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:33 AM AKST     -3.61 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:02 AM AKST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:05 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:28 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:20 AM AKST     4.08 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:44 PM AKST     New Moon
Fri -- 01:04 PM AKST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:46 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:03 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:41 PM AKST     -5.06 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:39 PM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:58 PM AKST     4.72 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91-0.9-2.5-3.4-3.5-2.2-0.11.93.243.82.30.2-2-3.8-4.8-5-4-1.70.82.74.14.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.