Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kupreanof, AK

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Areas of fog, with visibilities below 1 mile, continue over the Icy Strait Corridor near Gustavus and Juneau early this morning.

- Active weather has returned this morning, with isolated wind gusts up to 35 mph possible for Ketchikan, Annette Island, S Clarence Strait, and SE Prince of Wales Island.

- After an organized band of rain this morning, wide spread rain showers return this afternoon through the weekend.

SHORT TERM
An organized band of precipitation continues to move northward this morning, currently over the central panhandle near Sitka and Angoon. No significant rain rates have occurred with this system, with mostly light rain observed. Areas along the Icy Strait Corridor, like Juneau and Gustavus, continue to see areas of fog reducing visibilities below 1 SM. This fog has slightly improved overnight, and will dissipate when the rain moves over the area. There is a chance for fog to return after the initial band of precipitation. If fog does return, it should again dissipate late morning.

After a very short break, another shortwave pushes into the area Friday, once again moving northward. This system will bring widespread showers over SE AK. Along with widespread rain, winds increase Friday morning. The strongest winds will be over the southern panhandle with gusts around 35 mph being very likely with the potential for slightly stronger gusts in isolated areas.
Precipitation then lasts through Friday into the weekend.

LONG TERM
/Saturday through early next week/...The main feature going into Saturday is a cold front racing up from the south, resulting rapid increases in southerly wind gusts, briefly cooler temperatures, and showers with rain and ice pellets. For the marine areas, currently expecting to see fresh to strong southerlies with possible gale force gusts associated with this cold front. What follows this cold front is continued onshore flow, associated with multiple shortwave troughs associated with the longwave trough that has been responsible for the continued warm temperatures.

Looking toward early to mid week next week sees the next proper frontal passage for the panhandle, bringing more precipitation and increased winds. Ultimately, most of the energy expected to move into the SE AK area is originated from a strong Bering Sea low pressure. As the associated front from the low in the Bering moves eastward, the triple point looks to form into its own low center near the northern gulf, swinging a front over the panhandle. Early indication of the trough moving over the Coast Mountains and into Canada could result in strong wind gusts up to 50 mph over land areas, and gale force southeasterlies in the inner channels.
Definitely a system to watch going forward.

Looking far into the extended, ensemble guidance seems to indicate our warm streak has come to an end, with little to hold back the deepening cold air in Canada by late next week. While details could change, there is definitely growing confidence in below normal temperatures going into the second half of February.

AVIATION
/through Saturday afternoon/...
A series of fronts and onshore flow will bring rain and deteriorating flying conditions through the period. First front is approaching PAHN and PAGY this afternoon, bringing MVFR VIS and CIGs , then reaching PAYA tonight. Behind the front, low VIS and CIGs have built back in for PAGS and PAJN, with slight improvements this afternoon as the second front lifts in and brings more rain, with VIS and CIGs improving to MVFR. For PASI and the southern panhandle TAF sites, VIS and CIGs will become MVFR this afternoon as the second front pushes in. Conditions look to slowly deteriorate through the night and into Friday morning, especially across the central and northern panhandle, with VIS and CIGs possibly becoming IFR.

Winds will generally be less than 10kts, however, higher winds 10-15G20-25kt possible for PAKT and PASI through the period, and for PAHN today. LLWS continues for central panhandle 25-35kt and southern panhandle 30-45kt, diminishing through the night.

MARINE
Inside (Inner Channels): Areas of fog continue over portions of the northern inner channels this morning with visibilities below 1 nautical mile in some areas. As precipitation moves over the area, and winds increase, this fog will dissipate. Winds this morning will quickly increase, especially over Clarence Strait. Currently winds over the southern inner channels are around 15 kts. These winds will become southerly and begin to increase this morning to around 20 to 25 kts with the strongest winds over Southern Clarence into Dixon Entrance. As a low pressure system moves further into the gulf, northerly winds over Lynn Canal will also increase to around 15 to 20 kts. These stronger winds will then persist throughout the day and slightly diminish overnight into Saturday.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds over the gulf will increase this morning as a low pressure system moves northwest into the gulf sending multiple shortwaves into the panhandle. After increasing, winds will remain around fresh to strong breezes, with areas of near gale force winds over Dixon entrance and in the Fairweather grounds.
Winds will slightly diminish late Friday, but periods of stronger winds will continue into the weekend as multiple shortwaves move into SE AK. Wave heights of 9 to 11 ft are expected to persist through the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.