Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kupreanof, AK

FXAK67 PAJK 212348 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 348 PM AKDT Mon Apr 21 2025

SHORT TERM
/ Through Thursday / Trough will be ushering a band of rain through the panhandle this evening, especially over the northern 2/3's of the panhandle, beginning to taper off later part of Tuesday. A new low develops over the gulf late Tuesday and the associated front will be lifting into the northeast gulf and the northern panhandle. The focus for the heavier precipitation, will be over the northern portion of the panhandle Wednesday, Rainfall totals are expected to 1/4 to 2/3 of the inch for daytime and nearly the same but likely a little less for the Wednesday time frame. Should not cause any flooding concerns, but amounts anticipated are a bit more than what is typical for April, which is one of the drier months in Southeast Alaska.

The remains of the low will persist in the gulf so showers will continue overnight and into early Thursday.

LONG TERM
/Thursday through Monday/...For the late week and weekend dealing with the uncertainty of where the Wednesday Gulf low will track. There have been two main tracks depicted by operational models and the ensembles. One keeps the low in the NE gulf, stronger and longer, thus continuing Eastern Gulf winds and Panhandle shower activity well into Friday and possibly Saturday. The other track drops the low to the SE along the panhandle coast, with a faster drying trend for the northern regions and SE Gulf winds staying up.
For the morning operational models more lined up with the northerly track (ECMWF. NAM, Canadian), with GFS dropping to the south, but keeping the low intact will into Saturday. Run to run consistency with these models isn't helping and ensembles while not as diverse still are not exactly lined up. Keeping with a mostly cloudy chance of rain forecast with this uncertainty, for now. For the weekend a wide range of solutions for upstream features. Another surface low and associated front is expected in the western gulf and impacting SE AK Monday into Tuesday. If the low center remains further west it will be keep precip for the region but would not anticipate much in the way of elevated winds. Low forecast confidence is still the word, so expect details to change as hopefully a steadier trend develops.
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