Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kake, AK

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Onshore flow continues showers through Monday, mainly for the northern and central panhandle

- A weak shortwave brings rain back to the northeastern gulf coast Monday night into Tuesday before another system moves into the gulf Wednesday

SHORT TERM
A decaying front is continuing to move inland Monday morning, bringing widespread rain to the panhandle. Along the northern gulf coast, the front has pushed through with only occasional post frontal showers showing up as of this discussion.
This will continue to be the trend through the day Monday, as weak ridging builds in behind the front. Onshore flow will continue though, with showers remaining likely for the northern and central panhandle into Tuesday. No significant changes made to the forecast in the short term aside from lowering winds in some parts of the inner channels to match the weakening front.

A weak shortwave in the northern gulf is expected to push into Yakutat and the northeastern gulf coast through Monday evening, which will continue rain chances and overcast skies throughout the northern panhandle. This pattern continues through Tuesday, with another organized band moving into Yakutat preceding the next system for Wednesday. For the southern panhandle, clearing skies could lead to fog development early Tuesday morning impacting marine and air travel through the morning hours.

LONG TERM
/Wednesday through Friday/...The front moving in late Tuesday night is expected to bring widespread moderate rain to the entire panhandle through the day Wednesday before trailing off late Wednesday night. Peak precipitation accumulation is expected to occur between Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon based on the current thinking for timing of the front. There is 80% confidence that Yakutat will receive between 1-1.75 inches, Juneau to receive 0.5-1.25 inches, Sitka to receive 0.6-0.8 inches, and Ketchikan to receive 0.25-0.55 inches of rain in the 24 hour period mentioned. There are no flood risks expected at this time. As the front moves in, winds across the panhandle look to increase to 20-25 mph with gusty conditions and will settle again Thursday morning after the front moves fully through the area.

The overall pattern for the rest of the week continues to be unsettled onshore flow. This will bring periods of rain and overcast conditions, mainly focused on the northern panhandle. The southern and part of the central panhandle could see periods of clearing intermixed with light rain showers for the rest of the week. Winds look be mainly calm for the rest of the period as there is no well defined front currently expected.

Looking ahead for the Saturday night through Sunday period, ensemble guidance suggests a negatively tilted trough will advance into the Gulf of Alaska. While this system is trending deeper, it is expected to bring relatively benign winds and precipitation, with the primary impacts focused on the southern panhandle and Clarence Strait to Dixon entrance region. Guidance suggests with 90% confidence that any hazards expected with this are low end small craft advisories in the aforementioned zones.

AVIATION
/through Monday night/...Mainly MVFR flight conditions through Monday night as rain slowly diminishes behind the departing front. Pockets of IFR VIS/CIGs possible through the morning. Some slight improvements with VFR flight conditions possibly developing as winds will become 8-15kt this afternoon.
Stronger winds 15-22G25-32kt will develop for PAGY behind the front as the gradient strengthens. Winds will diminish through the night, possibly allowing the return of MVFR VIS/CIGs, especially for PAYA. Any lingering LLWS concerns will diminish through the morning as the front pushes east of SE AK.



MARINE
A weakening front will continue to lift inland across the SE Alaska panhandle Monday with a weak short wave following Monday evening. Another organized system will move into the gulf late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Coastal Waters:

As previously forecast, winds have become southwesterly 10-15kts behind the front in the gulf. Additionally, swell has shifted to be consistently southwesterly ranging 7 to 9 ft and should ease to 3 to 5 ft by Monday night. Between the easing winds and swell combined seas in the outer/inner coastal zones are expected to go from 15 to 17 ft to 6 to 8 ft by Monday night. Conditions are not expected to change drastically from Monday night onward. That said, there are a few shortwave disturbances that could boost winds primarily in the near coastal zones. As of this forecast, the majority of the area is expected to remain below gale for much of the week ahead.

Inner Channels:

As of early Monday morning, the front has pushed into the inner channels and begun lifting into the interior. E-W orientated channels have including Cross Sound have already reported winds shifting westerly, though Icy Strait has split flow as of this discussion. Winds will generally ease over Inner Channels as the front continues to lift inland. The one exception will be Lynn Canal, which will continue to see southerly winds up to 20 kt for most of the day. Looking past Monday, weak shortwaves moving over the area are expected to increase winds over portions of the area, as of right now low end SCA seem to be the most likely but this could change as more higher resolution guidance becomes available for this period. Other than these shortwaves the only thing to note would be some potential fog development overnight early Tuesday due to expected diminishing cloud cover from Frederick Sound southward.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.