Sunrise 4:35 AM   Sunset 9:13 PM Moonrise 6:22 AM   Moonset 1:35 AM

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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 256 Pm Akdt Sat May 11 2024
Tonight - S wind 10 kt becoming se 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less then 4 ft. Rain.Sun - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.Sun night - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Mon - S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.Mon night - SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.Tue - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wed - S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Thu - S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 112350 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 350 PM AKDT Sat May 11 2024

SHORT TERM
Our nice weather across the area is starting to come to an end this afternoon. Rain ahead of a gale force front is moving to portions of the panhandle, specifically the NE gulf coast. Farther south, rain is expected to move in later this afternoon into evening. With clouds moving in from the south and west, temperatures will stay warm during the overnight hours as we continue to see warming during the day before the clouds cover the panhandle. The rain with this event is expected to be lighter than what fell during the middle part of the week. Rain is expected to come to an end during the morning hours on Monday.
This break is expected to be brief though as the next system starts to enter the gulf.

LONG TERM
Two features dominate the midrange forecast, with the first frontal band beginning on Monday. Associated with a low in the northern gulf, a band will extend over the entire panhandle beginning Monday morning. Enhanced winds up to 30 knots in the outer waters and possibly up to 25 knot sustained winds in the inner channels will persist during the daytime period. This system will also bring a healthy dose of rain to the panhandle, but nothing more than moderate rainfall rates at times. Winds will calm late Monday night going into Tuesday.

The second feature is a potential weak atmospheric river (AR) for the southern panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensemble guidance seems to be in two camps for how this system will proceed: The first, mainly held by the GEFS and GEPS, is a slower progressing trough which will increase rain totals for the southern panhandle.
With this solution, 80% of ensemble members indicate rainfall rates of up to 4/10 of an inch every 6 hours with totals of 1 - 1.5 inches. The EPS, deterministic EC, and its AI counterpart, prefer a progressive trough, which will push the heavier rates south of the southern panhandle, near Haida Gwaii. At this time, there is a 60% chance of a weak AR impacting the southern panhandle. While this forecast leaned towards the slower progression of the aloft trough, corresponding with heavier rain for the southern panhandle, confidence is only slightly above average on an AR event.

AVIATION
Variable flight conditions with VFR across much of the area with MVFR isolated across the northern panhandle this afternoon with rain showers starting for PAYA. Expecting this wet trend to continue through the TAF period and spread eastward through tonight, affecting the rest of the Southeast TAF sites by 08-12z.
As the front moves in, except ceilings to drop to 5000ft or less with BKN to OVC MVFR ceilings possible by 10z. In addition, southeasterly wind shear will be possible around 2000ft for PAYA around 06-12z tonight as front pushes inland.

MARINE
A gale force front will continue to move through the gulf this evening bringing winds up to gale force as well as elevated seas.
Behind this front, winds will decrease but continue to remain elevated. Another gale force system is expected to move into the gulf starting Monday morning keeping weather unsettled across the area. Across the inner channels, winds are expected to come up in response to both fronts moving through the area.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671.

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