Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 10:21 PM Moonrise 3:44 AM   Moonset 6:54 PM

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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tonight - SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu - W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu night - N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.Fri through Sun - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 061311 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 511 AM AKDT Mon May 6 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Composite radar, satellite imagery, and surface observations early this morning indicate that much of the precipitation has moved out of the Copper River Valley with main precipitation axis extending from the southern Kenai Peninsula to the Mat-Su Valley and Talkeetna Mountains. This main swath of precipitation will gradually push westwards this morning with precipitation lingering across the Susitna Valley and western Kenai Peninsula through this afternoon. As expected, the Copper Basin and Mat Valley saw the bulk of the precipitation from this wave with Gulkana and Palmer receiving almost three-quarters of an inch of rainfall over the past 12-24 hrs. Elsewhere, including Wasilla down to the Anchorage Bowl, a quarter to half an inch of rainfall were common.

The large area of low pressure remains out across the northern Gulf today, but will quickly weaken by tonight as it opens and lifts inland. This shortwave will provide enough lift to get another round of showers to develop near the Wrangells before they push northward.
Otherwise, generally quiet weather today with just some isolated to scattered showers for most of Southcentral.

While the aforementioned Gulf low will move out tonight, another low will quickly lift into the Gulf from the north Pacific on Tuesday.
As the associated front lifts across the Gulf, precipitation will spread northward along the front. Models tend to be in good agreement with the bulk of the precipitation impacting Southeast Alaska, but will see enhanced showers develop along the northern Gulf coastal areas, Prince William Sound, and the eastern Kenai Peninsula through Wednesday night.

- PP

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Light, scattered rain and snow showers will continue through mid- week. Conditions favorable for freezing spray accumulation will be heaviest just south of the ice edge from west of Nunivak Island northward through this afternoon. An Arctic High over Eastern Russia and a low over Western Alaska are funneling arctic air south through the Bering Strait today. The coldest air is expected across the Pribilof Islands, coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta to the Alaska Peninsula, and along the Bristol Bay coast. Persistent onshore winds will keep temperatures below normal under mostly cloudy skies. Persistent onshore winds will keep tonight and tomorrow's temperatures below normal under a mostly cloudy sky. Tuesday morning, a weak low pressure drops south from the Bering Strait, bringing a reinforcing push of cold air southward to the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians by the evening hours. This low will move into Bristol Bay by Wednesday night.
Thursday morning a Kamchatka low moves into the Bering Sea along a path just north of the Aleutian Chain, resulting in heavier snow and rain showers for areas west of Dutch Harbor.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Broad troughing stretches from the western Aleutians towards the Gulf of Alaska, with multiple surface lows tracking across the Aleutians and into the Gulf. Precipitation along coastal regions of Southcentral, including Kodiak Island, will persist through much of the long term. Some precipitation will likely spill over into Southwest Alaska as the Gulf low moves over the Kenai Peninsula on Thursday. Since the low developing out near the Western Aleutians on Thursday stays south of the Aleutians as it travels towards the Gulf, precipitation will likely diminish over Southwest by late Friday. An upper-level ridge attempts to build through the weekend across portions of the Bering and Aleutians, however, each model solution shows differences in the way the ridge interacts with the surrounding lows/troughs.

AVIATION

PANC...Southeasterly winds out of Turnagain Arm are expected to see a slight lull by mid-morning before picking back up this afternoon and continuing until Tuesday morning. Lingering showers moving over the terminal are possible this morning but will likely diminish into the afternoon. During periods of showers, ceilings and visibility may drop near MVFR levels and may go MVFR for a time. However, southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds may limit the persistence of the MVFR periods, favoring VFR conditions.

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Lazy Bay
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Mon -- 12:55 AM AKDT     12.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM AKDT     -1.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:42 PM AKDT     10.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:36 PM AKDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:53 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:12 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lazy Bay, Alitak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Moser Bay (Trap Point)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:05 AM AKDT     12.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:43 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:56 AM AKDT     -1.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:53 PM AKDT     10.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM AKDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:53 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:12 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moser Bay (Trap Point), Alaska, Tide feet

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