Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Akhiok, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 6:38PM Friday March 5, 2021 7:29 PM AKST (04:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:14AMMoonset 9:31AM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 353 Pm Akst Fri Mar 5 2021
.small craft advisory through Saturday night...
Tonight..NW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of western bays and passes. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat..NW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of western bays and passes. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat night..W wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Akhiok, AK
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location: 56.9, -154.25     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 060204 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 504 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad upper level low over the northern Bering continues to keep widespread showery conditions in place with continued westerly flow across the Bering. A weakening surface low over the Kuskokwim Delta Coast is moving inland, bringing scattered snow showers to the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coast. Another low embedded along a frontal boundary extending over the western Gulf is centered south of Kodiak Island with snow gradually tapering off across Kodiak. Meanwhile over Southcentral, a band of snow that formed over Cook Inlet this morning continues to deteriorate with only residual showers across the Cook Inlet and Kenai Peninsula.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in generally good synoptic agreement for the short term. There is good agreement with the arrival of several fronts over Southwest this weekend. However the smaller scale features of the forecast remain challenging. Model solutions advertise slight differences in the development of snowfall over the Cook Inlet/Kenai Peninsula area tomorrow morning.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds persist. Light snowfall may develop during the overnight hours through Saturday morning, which may lower conditions to MVFR, but this is looking less and less likely.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3: Today through Sunday) .

A band of snow stretching from near Homer to the mainly western portions of the Susitna Valley associated with the remnants of a frontal system will remain nearly stationary through tonight. By Saturday morning, a potent upper level shortwave will approach from the West along with cold northwest flow, pushing any remaining snow west towards the eastern slopes of the Kenai Mountains. Additional amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible for the western Kenai Peninsula with the continuing snowfall as it gradually decreases in intensity through Saturday morning before ending from west to east. A brief period of light snow remains possible for the Anchorage area Saturday morning near the leading edge of the northwest flow moving in, but accumulations should be minor and generally less than 1 inch. Outflow winds through gaps and bays will increase as the colder air advects into the interior, with the strongest winds expected through Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal and the Copper River Delta from tonight through early Sunday morning. Strong northwest winds will also pick up tonight through the Kamishak Gap into the Barren Islands and parts of the western Gulf, and these winds will likewise diminish by Sunday afternoon.

Aside from the outflow winds, a break in the weather will begin region-wide for the latter half of the weekend as the upper trough moves east and as a strong upper ridge builds into the western mainland. A pattern change by Monday and Tuesday may yield another impactful system tracking into parts of Southcentral, but the exact details for this event remain to be ironed out.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: tonight through Saturday night) .

A longwave trough extending off an Arctic low stretches across the Southwest Coast and into the North Pacific. This trough pushes onshore and weakens later this evening with rounds of light snowfall scattered across the Southwest Coast, Y-K Delta, and along the Kuskokwim Mountains. The upper level pattern becomes increasingly amplified throughout the day tomorrow and into tomorrow night as a ridge pushes west to east across the Bering towards Southwest Alaska. Under the ridge conditions across the Mainland are expected to remain relatively clear and dry.

A second front off another Arctic low enters the western Bering late tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of this front and behind the ridge, flow becomes southwesterly and significantly warmer air is transported across the central Bering and across the Southwest Mainland. Temperatures are likely to increase to above freezing along the coasts, and at or above freezing further inland tomorrow and Sunday. Significant precipitation is expected across the Y-K Delta beginning Sunday night and moving east across the Mainland through Monday. There is potential for periods of a snow/rain mix as temperatures increase to above freezing during the day, and then transition back to all snow with colder overnight temperatures. Strong, gusty winds with the front may result in blowing snow at times. Behind the front, colder northern air is advected back into the region and temperatures begin dropping again by Monday night.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: tonight through Saturday night) .

Mostly westerly flow across the Bering through tomorrow with widespread gales and small craft winds in the central and western Bering. A small, brief period of storm force winds in the far western Bering tomorrow night with the approach of a front off an Arctic low. Just ahead of the front winds become south/southwesterly, advecting much warmer air into the Bering and across the Southwest Mainland. Colder northerly air returns behind the front, tracking west to east across the Bering beginning Sunday morning. Widespread rain and rain/snow showers area expected across the southern Bering and Aleutian Coast, with snow further north. Moderate to heavy rain and rain/snow showers are expected across the Aleutian Chain and Southern AKPEN over the next couple days. As colder air moves back into the area, precipitation will transition back to snow. Freezing spray and areas of heavy freezing spray will be an issue along the northern Bering and along the ice edge tonight, diminishing by tomorrow with the warm air push. Freezing spray and heavy freezing spray returns in the western Bering and along the Western Aleutians late Sunday morning.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday).

Bering Sea: A Northern Bering low tracks into the Chukchi Sea through Tue. Forecast confidence is good. Widespread small craft winds and waves with some areas of gale force winds move across the Bering, diminishing late Tue. Seas to 18 feet over the Western Bering and Aleutians subsides by Tue. A new low and front moves across the Central Aleutians and Bering through Tue. Winds become light and variable over the Central and Eastern Bering, westerly winds over the Western Bering

Gulf of Alaska: A low tracks the Alaska Peninsula coast over to Prince William Sound for Wed. A front moves across the Gulf through Wed. Forecast confidence is good. Widespread small craft winds and waves move across the Gulf through Wed. Gale force winds develop from the Barren Islands into the Gulf Tue through Wed. Waves to 18 feet move across the Gulf through Wed.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday) .

The key features in the long term consist of a broad upper level trough over the Bering with a highly amplified ridge in place over the Alaska-Yukon border. As the trough shifts eastward over the Mainland by Wednesday, several embedded shortwaves at the base of the trough propagate across the Aleutian Chain from west to east. This will likely translate into a more active weather pattern for the Bering for the middle of next week. By Thursday morning, the upper level trough axis is placed over the Mainland, with a surface low spinning up at the base of the trough over the Gulf. This low may bring the potential for snow to Southecentral, given the colder airmass in place, however confidence is very low this far out in time. Additionally, a cold Arctic airmass will be in place across the Mainland Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday night, model solutions are advertising a broad low entering the western Bering and tracking eastward through the end of the week. The front associated with this low will reach the Southwest coast late Friday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . STORM WARNING . 178 411 GALE WARNING . 121 130-132 352 150 155 160 165 170 173-176 177 179 185 412 413 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 160 185 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AS SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KM MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/KO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 0 mi59 min NW 13 G 18 29°F 37°F999.9 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 69 mi99 min S 7.8 G 7.8 31°F 38°F2 ft998.8 hPa (+0.4)28°F

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Lazy Bay, Alitak Bay, Alaska
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Lazy Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:13 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:53 AM AKST     12.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:57 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:30 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:03 PM AKST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:32 PM AKST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 06:59 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:07 PM AKST     7.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.75.7810.412.112.611.910.37.95.32.91.30.71.12.44.267.47.97.7765

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Bay (Trap Point), Alaska
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Moser Bay (Trap Point)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:05 AM AKST     12.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:57 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:29 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:17 PM AKST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:32 PM AKST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 06:59 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:18 PM AKST     7.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.45.27.49.811.612.41210.58.35.83.41.50.70.92.13.85.67.17.87.77.16.25.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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