Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Akhiok, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 10:11PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 10:22 AM AKDT (18:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 2:01PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 951 Am Akdt Tue Aug 11 2020
Today..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu through Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Akhiok, AK
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location: 56.9, -154.25     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 111233 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 433 AM AKDT Tue Aug 11 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. There is a broad area of upper level troughing over mainland Alaska and the Yukon Territory. There is a faint ridge axis over Cold Bay and then more troughing over the western Aleutians and Bering. Multiple closed lows and shortwaves are embedded within the longwave pattern. Overall, its a very dynamic pattern. The two features that really stand out is a shortwave near the Western Alaska Range and an occluded low west of Adak with a new triple point low forming south of Sand Point. There is a 95kt jet core west of Cook Inlet and another jet south of the Aleutians this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION. The models remain in decent agreement with the major surface features over the Bering and North Pacific for the Day 1 forecast period. Again, the pattern looks convective with both the GFS and the NAM over portions of Southcentral Alaska in the first 24 hr period. But the shortwave which will trigger thunderstorm activity is depicted slightly different between the NAM and the GFS. Both models clearly show a pool of cold air aloft and there will be plenty of available moisture. Past 24 hrs, the additional complication is that the models diverge on the track of the triple point low entering the Gulf Of Alaska. This divergence is echoed by the GFS ensemble members.

AVIATION. PANC . The primary forecast challenge for this TAF package will be forecasting thunderstorm activity at or near PANC. The models look unstable. Convection is a real possibility after 21z today. The additional complication is that the radar at Kenai (PAHG) is still inoperable. Otherwise, expecting VFR conditions at PANC.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). Southcentral will be dominated by broad cyclonic flow aloft with embedded short waves through Wednesday. So then, the main focus will be on convection, both severity and location. A fairly strong short waves moves over the Cook Inlet to MAT-SU Valleys corridor today and will give rise to widespread showers. Cooling temperatures aloft and forcing provided by the short wave will increase afternoon and evening thunderstorm potential from the western Kenai Peninsula to the MAT-SU Valleys (including the Anchorage Bowl), and the Copper River Basin. Areas of showers will likely continue across much of Southcentral tonight and Wednesday with thunderstorms possible again, although not as widespread Wednesday afternoon and evening. Drier conditions are expected Wednesday night and Thursday as upper ridging builds in from the west. Temperatures will also rebound Thursday.

Winds overall will be on the light side with seabreezes along the coasts. There will be a fairly weak easterly Turnagain Arm wind this afternoon and evening which may clip the south and west parts of Anchorage this evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

The upper level shortwave that brought showers to Southwest on Mon will remain overhead on Tue as a more consolidated, closed system. The vorticity maximum should be centered over the Western Alaska Range near the time of peak heating. With upper level forcing and instability parameters of -1 and 500 J/KG for LI (Lifted Index) and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Temperature) respectively, there is a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Western Alaska Range. Cloud cover should limit instability over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Kilbuck Mountains again Tue, so only expecting another round of pulse-like storms.

Weather through Thu should be drier for most of Southwest as the upper level system slowly moves off to the southeast. This will bring subsidence and negative vorticity advection to the region, so expecting warmer temperatures and clearer skies. The two exceptions to this will be over the Western Alaska Range on Wed and over the Akpen to the south of Pilot Point through Thu. On Wed, a few vorticity maximum may travel over the Western Alaska Range in the afternoon, so another round of showers is possible. Downsloping in the mid-levels should help to cap convection from reaching thunderstorm criteria so they have been omitted from the forecast at this time. For the Akpen, a stationary front is expected to remain over the southern half of the peninsula bringing light rain and cooler temperatures through Thu.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The main weather story for the Bering continues to be an occluding low to the west of Adak this morning. The occluded front is wrapped from the Pribilof Islands back west towards Shemya. Small craft advisory winds are possible in the waters to the north of Shemya on Tuesday, after which the front will weaken. Weather by Tuesday night should be calm across the region with light rain, low stratus and fog occupying the area through Thu as the low fills in and moves southeast. The next frontal system is expected to arrive over the western Aleutians on Thu afternoon. Models disagree over the timing and strength of the front but small craft advisory winds may reach the waters around Shemya Thu afternoon/evening.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thu through Sat).

Models are in good agreement with a low positioned northwest of Adak Thursday morning. The associated front, bringing widespread showers and small craft advisory winds, will move across the southwest coast beginning Thursday evening as the system propagates eastward and weakens. Model confidence decreases Thursday afternoon as models try to elongate this low south of the Aleutians or spin up another weak low somewhere south of Dutch Harbor or Cold Bay. Models have the front associated with this feature entering the southwestern Gulf sometime between Thursday evening and Friday morning. Due the track, timing and strength of this system having various solutions, it is unclear at this time if winds will meet small craft or gale force criteria Friday into Saturday and how quickly the low will traverse the Gulf. Model confidence is also on the lower side for a low approaching the western Aleutians sometime between Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon. Along similar lines as the low south of Dutch Harbor, forecast track, timing and strength will determine if winds remain at or exceed small craft advisory levels and how much rainfall is to be expected with this feature as it moves into the eastern Bering through Saturday. All in all, expect an increase in winds, rains and rainfall heading into the weekend for both the Gulf and the western/central Aleutians and Bering Sea.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Fri through Mon).

Model confidence remains low as the strength, track and timing of a low south of the Chain all vary as it approaches and crosses the Gulf heading into Saturday. Rainfall amounts and wind thresholds are contingent on these factors along with how close to the North Gulf coast the system will approach. Expect rainy and windy conditions, although refinement into how far those conditions make it into Southcentral and across Southwest will come with future forecast updates. Additionally, how quickly this low traverses the Gulf through Sunday will also influence rain and winds associated with this feature. Models seem to be in fair agreement that this feature will dissipate on Monday. On Friday, an area of low pressure approaches the western Aleutians, although, strength, timing and placement of this feature are currently uncertain. Small craft advisory winds, as the front crosses the western Aleutians/Bering, are possible with gale force winds also a possibility as the front enters the central Aleutians and Bering Saturday afternoon. Expect rainfall with this feature as it moves across the Bering Friday through Monday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CJ MARINE/LONG TERM . CK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 0 mi53 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 53°F 53°F1013.9 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 69 mi33 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 54°F 55°F2 ft1013.7 hPa (+0.0)50°F

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Lazy Bay, Alitak Bay, Alaska
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Lazy Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:54 AM AKDT     3.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:34 AM AKDT     7.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:47 AM AKDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:34 PM AKDT     3.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:54 PM AKDT     10.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.43.433.54.55.66.87.67.67.26.35.44.43.83.84.55.87.38.79.910.29.88.77.4

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Bay (Trap Point), Alaska
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Moser Bay (Trap Point)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:27 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:08 AM AKDT     3.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM AKDT     7.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:47 AM AKDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:48 PM AKDT     3.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:05 PM AKDT     10.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.73.53.13.34.25.36.57.47.67.26.45.54.63.93.74.35.46.98.49.610.19.88.97.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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