Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Harbor, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:26AMSunset 11:41PM Thursday July 2, 2020 1:41 AM AKDT (09:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:00PMMoonset 1:38AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 404 Pm Akdt Wed Jul 1 2020
Tonight..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu night..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
Fri..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat through Mon..W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Harbor, AK
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location: 56.97, -153.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 020042 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 442 PM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

In the upper levels, a ridge extends north from the Alaska Peninsula to over the Chukchi Sea. To the east, an upper low was over the eastern Brooks Range and to the west a low over the Central Bering Sea. A 50-70 kt jet stream to the east of the Bering Sea low supported a surface front extending across the eastern Bering sea to the central Aleutians. Satellite imagery showed fairly extensive cirrus flowing down the eastern side of the ridge across Southcentral and lower clouds under the ridge axis over Southwest Alaska. Evidence of strong subsidence under the ridge was evident by strong temperature inversions on morning soundings and surface observations of low stratus and fog across the Southwest Mainland. Rain and strong southerly winds were observed along the frontal band over the eastern Bering/Aleutians. Gusty outflow winds were evident across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and portions of Prince William Sound.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good agreement on the placement of synoptic features through the short term. The main adjustments will be with mesoscale winds with outflow conditions along the north Gulf Coast and the eastern Kenai Peninsula.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Thursday through Saturday) .

A warming and drying trend will be the theme as we head into the holiday weekend. A ridge of high pressure will build across the mainland during this time, with 850 mb temperatures climbing from +3 C this morning, to +11 by Saturday afternoon. This warming aloft will translate to afternoon highs increasing each day through the 4th of July, with highs in the 70s being fairly widespread. How much into the 70s remains the question though, as several disturbances in the westerly flow aloft across the region will bring bursts of increased moisture and resultant cloud cover. There could even be a few light showers for portions of the Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains as this moisture is augmented by orographic lift and diurnal heating.

The tricky part to the high temperature forecast is timing of these shortwaves, as the current model runs indicate morning sunny skies and then increased cloud cover by evening scenario, or vice versa. This can be seen somewhat on Thursday but more so Friday and Saturday. This leads to a high "bust" potential, as if the clouds clear earlier than currently projected or arrive later than anticipated, we could see highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees by the start of the weekend area-wide, as an offshore flow pattern develops.

That said, the latest numerical guidance trended the temperatures down for the afternoon by a good 5 degrees or more compared to what we had in the forecast. Given the forecast uncertainties described above, took a middle ground approach and lowered them a few degrees for now, and we'll see how later runs play out.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A front associated with a large Bering Sea low is pushing toward the Bering Sea coast tonight. The weak ridging ahead of this low will flatten, and moisture from the front will push over the southwest mainland tonight, bringing with it ample cloud cover, cooler conditions and increased rain potential. Following the front, the ridge builds back over southwest Alaska, however, the upper level southwest flow will continue to allow for clouds to spread over the top of this ridge.

Thursday night another upper level trough will move across the top of the ridge over southwest Alaska bringing more clouds and an increased chance of rain. The ridge builds back Friday over southwest Alaska, and warmer air aloft moves over the southwest mainland. This will bring warmer temperatures to the area Friday. A strong front is pushing across the Bering Sea and will be along the Bering Sea coast by Saturday morning, thus returning the region to the cool cloudy conditions.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A near gale force low is currently over the western Bering Sea pushing and front to the Bering Sea coast. This low will rapidly move north northwest into Siberia as a ridge briefly builds in behind it through Thursday evening. A north Pacific low will move to the western Aleutian as a low moves into the western Bering Sea Friday morning. These lows merge Friday night and will produce near gale force wind in advance of the associated front across the Central Aleutians and central Bering Sea. The overall theme for the next several days will be unsettled wet and windy weather for much of the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and Bering Sea.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday).

Gulf of Alaska: Easterly winds along the North Gulf Coast are expected to switch to Westerly winds across the Gulf by Mon. Confidence is good the winds remain below small craft levels.

Aleutians and Bering: An elongated Western Bering low slips towards Northern Kamchatka. Confidence is good for widespread small craft winds and waves spreading from the Aleutians into the Bering through Mon with pockets of Gale force winds with higher waves across the Central Aleutians dissipating through Sun.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday) .

The strong upper level ridge over western Alaska Sunday weakens through Wednesday. This allows short waves spinning off of the Bering Sea trough to progress eastward across the Mainland. This pattern change will bring intrusions of moisture from the west resulting in cloudier conditions, increased chances of rain/showers, and a lowering of daytime high temperatures across the southern Mainland. Although the model trends are similar with the weakening of the upper ridge, differences in solutions will pose a problem in timing systems. So confidence is low on exact timing but fair to good on a trend toward more clouds, cooler temperatures, and chances of rain.

With the main upper low center and trough holding over the Bering Sea, expect generally mostly cloudy conditions with periods of rain/showers and gusty winds.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . PD SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . SA MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/BC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 29 mi54 min NW 6 G 9.9 48°F 49°F1026.8 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 69 mi52 min WSW 18 G 21 49°F 51°F3 ft1025.1 hPa (-0.3)48°F
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 82 mi54 min SSW 1 G 1.9 55°F 49°F1024.6 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Jap Bay, Alaska
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Jap Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:37 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:36 AM AKDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:57 PM AKDT     6.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:07 PM AKDT     2.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:59 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.986.44.32.10.3-0.6-0.70.11.53.24.75.765.74.83.72.72.32.63.65.37.18.6

Tide / Current Tables for Three Saints Bay, Alaska
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Three Saints Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:35 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:33 AM AKDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:52 PM AKDT     6.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:04 PM AKDT     2.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:00 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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986.44.220.3-0.6-0.70.11.63.44.95.96.15.84.83.72.72.32.63.75.47.38.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.