Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Old Harbor, AK

FXAK68 PAFC 090150 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 450 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Temperatures below freezing with northerly winds this morning for the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Matanuska Valley slowly eroded throughout the day as southeastern winds interacting with terrain filtered warmer air westward. Portions of Anchorage ranged from 28 degrees at the Anchorage International to 46 degrees near south Anchorage. The prevailing south and easterly flow will continue bring about warming temperatures, especially for coastal locations that will see an increase in winds off the waters of the Gulf.

Warmer air flowing over the cooler surface in some spots allowed for brief, light freezing rain in Soldotna and Kenai, then Anchorage this morning. Light, freezing rain has been reported this evening from Big Lake north through Willow. These are expected to be brief as dry air within a region of downsloping spreads northward. There is a good chance that precipitation falling during the overnight hours on the lee side of the mountains will be in the form of freezing rain with surface temperatures dropping below freezing overnight and warm air still above freezing aloft. Kodiak received ample rainfall (over 2 inches) since this morning. Rain rates have gotten lighter, but additional rain is expected to increase again overnight into Monday for Kodiak. An additional 2 to 5 inches of rain could fall for coastal communities from Whittier to Kodiak through Tuesday.
Lesser amounts are expected farther east toward Cordova.

Widespread gale-force winds, with a small core of storm-force winds for the Barren Islands, are expected along the front with ample moisture with this system. Again, warm southeasterly air looks to advect into Southcentral, so any locations near freezing initially will quickly warm into the 30s and 40s with snow levels again rising to 2,000 ft or higher by Monday. Turnagain Arm winds will also be on the increase, as well as winds at higher elevations, including the Anchorage Hillside where gusts 55 to 70 mph are possible overnight and Monday. Strong wind gusts approaching 45 to 60 mph area also possible for Whittier and Portage.

The front weakens, slows, and stalls near Prince William Sound early Monday morning. However, a strong upper-level wave moving north into the Gulf will advect more moisture toward coastal Southcentral as a surface low spins up along the stalled frontal boundary and drives north toward Prince William Sound. This low will drive the front to the coast with a storm-force barrier jet developing from Cordova into western Prince William Sound. Any slight lull in the gusty winds from the initial frontal push late Sunday into early Monday will be short-lived as the low and front continue to push inland by Monday afternoon with a second peak of strong winds likely from Cordova to Whittier, Portage and Turnagain Arm.

-TM/Rux