Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sitka and , AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 102348 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 248 PM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Repeated fronts will affect the panhandle during coming days and there will be a persistent chance of precipitation in the forecast for most locations through Friday. Towards the end of the forecast period, cooler weather can be expected as cold air wraps around a low in the Gulf pushing into Southeast Alaska on Friday.

SHORT TERM. A frontal band that has been pushing eastward through the panhandle during the day is falling apart as it reaches the coast mountains. The pressure gradient associated with this front has been mostly parallel to the north-south inner channels, resulting in lighter winds for many areas. One of the side effects of these lighter winds has been the distinct lack of low level mixing down of the warmer temperatures aloft over the far northern inner channels. Consequently, these areas have continued to lag behind in rising daytime highs when compared to the rest of the panhandle. Freezing rain has been reported at the Haines airport, which prompted the issuance of a winter weather advisory for ice accumulations of less than 1/4 inch until 9 PM this evening. Behind this front, there may be a brief reprieve from the precipitation for some locations during the overnight hours before another front enters the area tomorrow morning. This next front will bring more rain, strong wind gusts to the southern outer coast, and gale force winds over the eastern gulf.

From Wednesday morning onward, the weather over SE Alaska will be driven primarily by a fairly impressive low currently moving northwards from the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska. This extratropical cyclone, a well defined mature low with a depth currently in the neighborhood of 960 mb as of the time of writing, will continue to move north over the western gulf before slowing down on Thursday while located southeast of Kodiak Island. The outer band of the occluded front associated with the the low will start to spread into the central and southern panhandle Wednesday morning. Though some model disagreement remains on its exact speed, am still expecting that the front will be impacting most of the panhandle by Wednesday night. It looks probable that a secondary wrap of the occluded front will begin interacting with the panhandle on Thursday, moving upward from the South and overrunning the panhandle fully by late Thursday night. After which, rain will continue to linger, driven by continued advection of moisture through the coastal mountains.

The incoming occluded front will bring more winds over the marine area with a band of 40 to 45 kt across the Gulf of Alaska and some of the coastal waters tonight through tomorrow. Small craft advisory level winds of 25 knots are expected through some of the southern and central inner channels throughout the forecast period.

The precipitation type will be primarily rain across SE Alaska, though the northern panhandle is likely to see some snow, especially during the Thursday-Friday time frame as cooler air starts to infiltrate the area. Higher elevations will also likely see snow during the forecast timeframe.

LONG TERM. /Thursday through Tuesday night/ . This extended range forecast begins with an upper low developing in the western gulf and shifting slightly to the east through Friday morning. An upper trough extends south of the low into the north Pacific. With these features in place there is essentially no steering flow and this fact is evident in the various models' surface depictions; little to no model agreement. An upper ridge west of the Aleutians at the start of this long range period will shift east to be over the Panhandle by Sunday morning, thus steering flow will be once again over the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska. However, the chaos remains in the models at the surface. What does appear to be relatively certain is wet weather will persist through most, if not all, of the coming week and this was already reflected in the long range forecast.

One area of the forecast that was changed was temperatures. Medium to long range tabular guidance was mixed, but platform model depictions all indicate that there will be low level cold air advection from the west beginning Thursday night. This, in turn, had an effect on snow levels, which in turn, had an effect on the probability of snow rather than rain by this coming weekend. Fortunately, several days remain before this becomes an issue with impacts on the public, so it can be studied closely by multiple shifts.

Overall long range forecast confidence is below average.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind Wednesday morning for AKZ023. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>033-035-036-053.



GFS/Fritsch

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SHXA2	2 mi	25 min	S 2.9 G 11	47°F			1004.5 hPa	34°F
ITKA2	3 mi	62 min		47°F	47°F		1005 hPa
STXA2	5 mi	25 min	S 1.9 G 5.1	41°F			1004.5 hPa	35°F
PGXA2	41 mi	25 min	SE 8 G 15	43°F				43°F
46084 - Cape Edgecumbe Buoy AK	48 mi	48 min	ESE 23 G 31	48°F	47°F	12 ft	1003.1 hPa (-1.4)	42°F
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK	52 mi	26 min	ENE 16 G 26	43°F			1005.5 hPa	35°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK	67 mi	62 min	Calm G 1.9	45°F	46°F		1006.6 hPa
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK	94 mi	62 min		42°F	46°F		1007.2 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sitka - Sitka Airport, AK	3 mi	45 min	ESE 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	47°F	35°F	63%	1004.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASI

Wind History from ASI (wind in knots)

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SE15 G23

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Tide / Current Tables for Sitka, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Dog Point, Lisianski Peninsula, Sitka Sound, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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