Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sitka and , AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 141343 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 543 AM AKDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SHORT TERM. Southeast Alaska can't seem to catch much of a break this summer, and this weekend will be no different as a continuation of the cool and wet conditions will continue. A brief exception to this may be for areas of the northern panhandle where offshore flow this morning has led to some breaks from the clouds overnight and will carry over into the late morning/early afternoon.

At the onset of the forecast, a low will be pushing a front northward through the panhandle. Through the day Friday and into the evening. This front will begin to spread rain across all of SEAK and with flow turning southerly behind the front, there will be ample moisture to work with. This low will meander in the Gulf with multiple waves rotating around it, bringing several slugs of rain, heavy at times to the region through the forecast period. Anticipate greatest totals to be in the southern panhandle where current projections show a large area of 2 to 4 inches over the course of the weekend.

Winds around this low will also be impactful, mainly in coastal regions, but should also see some SCA winds sneak out of Cross Sound. Late Friday night, the pressure gradient will tighten up enough over the southern panhandle to get some SCA winds into Clarence Strait. Our normal trouble spots in Lynn Canal currently don't look to see a favorable pressure gradient to get to advisory level winds with this forecast package, however 15 to 20 kt will bear continued scrutiny for anything stronger over the weekend.

Main forecast challenge continues to be timing of the front and how fast/slow the main initial line of precip migrates north. Initially wanted to defer to previous forecast where as the timing was purposefully slowed in favor of the GFS. Latest runs of the GFS are not as rosy, so with that being said, opted over the course of this writing to speed up the progression.

Forecast confidence in a soggy weekend is high, however confidence decreases with timing and placement of the subsequent waves moving through the region.

LONG TERM. /Sunday through next Thursday/ . Several small surface lows/troughs will continue to rotate about a larger upper level low over the central gulf through majority of the extended forecast. This will keep periods of rain in the forecast and fluctuating winds.

Models continue to have run-to-run consistency issues with each wave as they give different strengths to each, or favor others for more development. The changing low placement and passing pressure troughs leads to some uncertainty in the wind forecast. When the lows are further north, then winds through the inside waters will be primarily out of the SE with strongest winds through E-W oriented channels. When the low center is over the southern gulf, and ahead of some frontal troughs, winds through the northern inside waters will turn out of the north. How deep each low/trough ends up being will also determine how strong each burst of wind will be.

The parent low will become absorbed by another low moving in from the west on Tuesday. This low looks to take an eastward track that is further south, which could give some relief to the northern half of the area for the end of the week, but frontal bands will likely still be able to reach the southern areas.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043.



JDR/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SHXA2	2 mi	30 min	WNW 5.1 G 8	52°F			1007.1 hPa	49°F
STXA2	5 mi	30 min	SSE 1.9 G 4.1	52°F			1007.1 hPa	48°F
PGXA2	41 mi	30 min	SE 2.9 G 9.9	52°F				52°F
46084 - Cape Edgecumbe Buoy AK	48 mi	44 min	ESE 19 G 23	55°F			1006.7 hPa	55°F
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK	52 mi	32 min	ENE 4.1 G 8.9	53°F			1008.4 hPa	51°F

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK

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SW11 G16

W4 G10

W6 G10

W4 G8

SW9 G16

NW6 G10

N1

W1 G4

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sitka - Sitka Airport, AK	3 mi	1.9 hrs	ESE 5	6.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	0°F	0°F	%	0 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASI

Wind History from ASI (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Sitka, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Dog Point, Lisianski Peninsula, Sitka Sound, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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