Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sitka and , AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak67 pajk 221401 afdajk southeast alaska forecast discussion national weather service juneau ak 601 am akdt Thu aug 22 2019 Synopsis A gale force front will lift northeast across the eastern gulf today and into the southern and central panhandle tonight as it weakens. Its parent low will move into the central gulf this afternoon and stall tonight. Friday the weakening low moves slowly east toward the panhandle. Short term A strong, and complex low is poised to enter the central gulf today and push a strong front northeastward across the eastern gulf today and the southern and central panhandle tonight. Rain, some of it heavy over the south, and gusty conditions are expected to develop this afternoon and press into the night for a few locations. QPF was increased over the south tonight, but we started the morning off a little drier than we originally thought. We do expect an accelerated rate of atmospheric moistening through today. Strong gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph near the coast and the far south begin late this afternoon in sitka and continue through 4 am Friday morning for ketchikan. While most of the north will be spared from winds, there is potential for breezy conditions for downtown juneau tonight, and possibly as early as late this afternoon. Confidence is not very high with development in juneau. The low begins to weaken tonight, and Friday it will start eastward once again after lying virtually stationary in the central gulf this afternoon evening. Models then diverge on how to push the system into the panhandle, so Friday night's wind forecast was not changed. While confidence is lower Friday, we expect winds to be lighter than Thursday night for certain. Friday also figures to be another wet day, but looking toward Friday night as the low presumably exits into canada, rain begins to thin out from the coast inland. We did look at potential for thunderstorms as the low pulls in and phases with energy dropping down from the bering, but model stability seems too high at this point. We used an ensemble of solutions to position the low and its associated front farther north today into Friday morning. Confidence is fairly high with this system with falling confidence into Friday. Long term Saturday through Thursday night as of 10 pm Wednesday fast zonal pacific jet south of the panhandle will continue to keep SE alaska in a moist onshore flow environment through the weekend. Weak low level trough will finally push east of the panhandle on Saturday, leading to a showery and breezy post- frontal pattern for the last half of the weekend. Operational models and their ensembles all show some amplification of the pacific jet early next week with the potential for some subtropical moisture to be drawn up into the northern gulf. Raised pop early next week to account for these trends. For the mid week

period, both the north american and european ensembles show more significant npac ridging developing. This would push the storm track further to the north and west and also allow for much warmer temperatures to push back northward especially into the southern panhandle. Allowed precipitation chances to diminish a bit over the southern panhandle and temperatures to warm some by this time frame to account for this trend. Aviation With the exception of some foggy conditions in petersburg and low clouds in ketchikan, wrangell, and klawock, stations are all vmc this morning. However, just as local low clouds and fog are disbanding, a weather front will begin to strengthen winds and a deepening moisture profile should lower ceilings and visibility from this afternoon through tonight. Some wind sheer was included in coastal locations. Marine Gales spread eastward and northward through this evening from the central gulf. Winds will also reach gale warning for ketchikan late this evening. A variety of small craft advisories are in effect for the central and southern inner channels as well from late this afternoon through tonight. Hydrology The largest integrated vapor transport (ivt) values with this system arrive over the southern panhandle late this afternoon and this evening. Owing to that fact, the heaviest rainfall is forecast for the south, especially during this period. All told 24-hour rainfall amounts from this morning should measure less than a half inch for the north, 0.5 to 1.0 inch for the central, and 1 to 2 inches for the south. We do not anticipate any flooding concerns, but because we are so soon following Tuesday's system, there will likely be rises, some sharp, on area stream, rivers, and lakes, especially over the south. Friday and Friday night, rainfall amounts will be less than an inch region wide. Climate We said goodbye to the remnants of the cool, dry air mass yesterday, as it lingered over the northern panhandle undeterred by the low that grazed the southern panhandle yesterday. But yakutat squeezed yet another match of a record low temperature with 34 degrees. The last time it was that chilly on august 22 was in 1986. Ajk watches warnings advisories Public... Strong wind from this evening through late tonight for akz021- 027. Strong wind from this evening through late tonight for akz022. Strong wind from 4 pm akdt this afternoon through late tonight for akz023. Strong wind from this evening through late tonight for akz028. Marine... Gale warning for pkz036-041>043-051-052. Small craft advisory for pkz021-022-031>035-053. Jwa del visit us at http:

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SHXA2	2 mi	37 min	SE 5.1 G 13	57°F			1011.4 hPa	40°F
ITKA2	3 mi	56 min		58°F	55°F		1011.7 hPa
STXA2	5 mi	37 min	SSE 4.1 G 13	57°F			1011.4 hPa	42°F
PGXA2	41 mi	37 min	SE 6 G 11	52°F				51°F
46084 - Cape Edgecumbe Buoy AK	48 mi	60 min	SSE 21 G 27	56°F	56°F	6 ft	1010.2 hPa (-2.0)	54°F
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK	52 mi	38 min	ENE 11 G 17	50°F			1010.8 hPa	44°F
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK	67 mi	56 min	SE 1 G 2.9	53°F	52°F		1013.6 hPa
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK	94 mi	56 min		52°F	49°F		1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sitka - Sitka Airport, AK	3 mi	57 min	ESE 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	57°F	45°F	64%	1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PASI

Wind History from ASI (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Sitka, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Dog Point, Lisianski Peninsula, Sitka Sound, Alaska

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.