Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hobart Bay, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:23AMSunset 3:54PM Monday January 20, 2020 8:04 AM AKST (17:04 UTC) Moonrise 5:36AMMoonset 1:22PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 354 Am Akst Mon Jan 20 2020
Today..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow early in the morning. Rain.
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or less.
Tue night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..SE wind 15 kt becoming ne. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hobart Bay, AK
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location: 57.22, -133.5     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 201431 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 531 AM AKST Mon Jan 20 2020

SHORT TERM. /Through Tuesday night/ Things will be less hectic in the upcoming short term period than the past several days as far as the weather goes, but some important forecast issues remain. Upper trof over the SW gulf and upper low S of the gulf will interact some, but the degree of interaction differs amongst the models. the upper trof over the SW gulf will move ENE across the gulf through Tue, but weaken as it reaches the eastern gulf late in the day Tue. The upper low to the S will move E, but some of the shortwave energy will move more to the N, and it is how much this shortwave energy interacts with the trof further N that will determine precip potential. There appears to be a trend toward more shortwave energy getting further N, which would mean increased threat for precip especially across the N Tue afternoon into Tue night. Given that the previous forecast had little threat for precip during this time across the N, have raised POPs up to upper end of chance category there.

Otherwise, a trof moving N through SE AK today and this evening will keep precip going across much of the area, although it will diminish from the SW this afternoon and tonight. The cold air remains across the northern third of the area, as well as in areas near interior outflow across the central panhandle. This will keep some of these areas as snow longer, especially further N. Deeper cold air remains around Haines, and as trof moves N, the overrunning will increase there. Looks like they could see a decent snowfall from this. Put out a winter weather advisory for zone 19 from 18z/20 to 06z/21, with the most snowfall expected near Haines. Went for 2-6 inches for that zone. A deeper plume of moisture is also affecting zone 29, and with cold airmass still in place, snow will continue for the Hyder area. Think they will end up with 6 to 10 inches of snow by time the snow diminishes late this afternoon, so issued a winter weather advisory for them through 01z/21. The Yakutat area has warmed up more than previously anticipated, which has caused rain to mix in at times there. This will reduce snowfall potential somewhat, and have cancelled the winter weather advisory for them. The Juneau area will probably get 2-4 inches of snow through this evening, although some rain will try to mix in late this afternoon and evening, especially for downtown Juneau and Douglas.

Still some strong winds around Skagway as a strong NE pressure gradient remains between them and Teslin in the Yukon. E flow around the ridge top level is helping maintain this tighter gradient, but this flow will veer around to a more S-SE by afternoon, weakening the low level ridging to the NE of White Pass. This will cause the winds to drop in the pass and in Skagway this afternoon. A strong wind headline has been added for this morning in zone 18. Otherwise, winds will not get above SCA levels.

With low level gradient become a bit more offshore Tue, the erosion of the cold air over the N should diminish temporarily. An inverted trof will likely develop across the eastern gulf in response to the upper level stream interaction. It is this feature that will increase the precip threat across the N and/or central areas Tue afternoon and night. Precip type will be tricky along the Juneau-Elfin Cove corridor Tue into Tue night with possibly a little bit of cooler air draining back into that area. Precip rates may play a role in this as well, with higher rates allowing for some snowmelt cooling in lower levels where winds remain lighter. The S may see some precip as low moves by them to the S Tue, but other than the Hyder area, it should be rain.

LONG TERM. /Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/ Long range story is similar to the past days with overall low confidence on time and track of features but have some increasing confidence on a general weather pattern. For mid week advancing upper level trough drops down from AK interior into the western AK Gulf then retrogrades westward for the weekend as it becomes a closed low. At the surface after a potential break in precip indications of a low pressure system tracking into the SE Gulf from the N Pacific and continuing northward through the end of the week. As with previous iterations models show wide variations in timing, location, strength, and eventual track of this low. For rest of the long range due to the upper level low over the Western Gulf looking to keep an active weather pattern with lows moving up from the N Pacific.

After the mid week warm up NAEFS anomalies and model spectrum spread have a return to below normal, more winter like, temperatures and precipitation. Not the frigid arctic air seen recently but more likely a change from rain or mixed precip back to snow, especially for the central panhandle. Getting some higher snow ratios from models at this time, however think this could be on the higher side due to models dipping temps too low. All this is highly dependent on low track and eventual flow pattern.

ECMWF has been more of an outlier compared to other models the past few days, but now seems to be the split with ECMWF/Canadian on one side with GFS/NAM on the other. Made only slight adjustments using new WPC/NBM to get wind magnitude/pop fields trended but help off on nailing down exact location of surface features. Once again expect the long range forecast to change as updated information is received and the pattern becomes more apparent.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019. Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ018. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ029. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051>053.



RWT/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 8 mi65 min N 11 G 12 33°F 999 hPa (+0.4)
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 87 mi37 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 31°F 998.8 hPa31°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 89 mi53 min Calm G 1 29°F 39°F999.6 hPa

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAFE

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------------N12
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1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Cleveland Passage, Whitney Island, Alaska
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Cleveland Passage
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:01 AM AKST     4.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:35 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:15 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:15 AM AKST     15.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:21 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:54 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:10 PM AKST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:38 PM AKST     12.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.56.65.14.55.16.99.412141514.71310.373.71.30.30.82.65.38.110.511.912.1

Tide / Current Tables for Port Houghton, Robert Islands, Stephens Passage, Alaska
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Port Houghton
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:41 AM AKST     4.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:36 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:16 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM AKST     15.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:21 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:50 PM AKST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:54 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:18 PM AKST     12.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.16.14.84.65.67.810.513.114.915.414.612.59.462.90.80.31.33.66.49.311.412.512.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.