Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:31AMSunset 5:55PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 6:13 AM AKST (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 6:00AMMoonset 12:35PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ412 Bering Sea Offshore 171w To 180 And North Of 56n- 403 Am Akst Tue Feb 18 2020
.heavy freezing spray warning through Wednesday...
Today..NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of 57n.
Tonight..NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of 57n.
Wed..NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Wed night..N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
Fri..W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
Sat..SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul, AK
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location: 57.44, -177.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 181447 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 547 AM AKST Tue Feb 18 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A vertically stacked low is lifting inland over the Kuskokwim Delta coast. An occluded front associated with this low bisects the state from north to south. A second low is developing in the Gulf and lifting northward, steering moist southerly flow into the northern Gulf coast. A band of precipitation observed on radar imagery this morning over Cook Inlet has brought a mix of rain and snow to Southcentral and it continues to gradually push eastward.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the middle of the week. Important differences of note in the short term include the ending time of snowfall across Southcentral early Wednesday. The NAM is quick to end snowfall early Wednesday morning, while the GFS solution continues it a bit longer. Additionally, some model solutions hang on to warm air over Prince William Sound and the Matanuska Valley a bit longer in the midlevels, which could limit overall snowfall amounts in those areas. By Wednesday, models diverge on the timing and track of the next Bering low as it moves eastward across the Aleutian Chain.

AVIATION.

PANC . The threat of LLWS will eventually taper as midlevel southeasterly flow diminishes this morning. Expect IFR conditions for most of the day today with snow. Conditions are expected to improve to MVFR by early Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2. Tue and Wed) .

An impressive storm is taking aim on much of Southcentral AK for today and tomorrow. Strong upper level dynamics are coupling with abundant moisture to create an atmosphere ripe for strong winds and heavy snow. Gusty southeast winds will continue very early this morning for parts of the Turnagain Arm and the Mat Valley. These winds represent the last of a warm airmass and are helping to keep temperatures in some of those localized areas above freezing. The warm 850 mb (5000') pocket continues to linger over the Western Prince William Sound. However, cold air is driving up the Cook Inlet from west to east. As these two airmasses collide through the period, it will create a line of heavy snowfall. The current band stretches from the Central Kenai up through the Susitna Valley. Snow rates of an inch or more per hour are definitely possible with this feature. As we expect it to shift to the east through the day over the Anchorage Bowl, we have issued a Winter Storm Warning. Winter Weather Advisories also remain in effect for the Susitna Valley, the Kenai Peninsula, and the Mat Valley for accumulating snow.

A new wave is working north through the Gulf of AK. This feature will eventually become a new closed off area of low pressure tonight. It will serve to bring another round of moisture from the Western Prince William Sound up through the Cook Inlet. However, it will also bring some marginally warmer air as well. So while it could serve to enhance snowfall for inland areas, it will likely make for continued rain (or a rain/snow mix) for most of the coastal locations. The Turnagain Pass, Thompson Pass, and other higher elevations will remain cold enough for snow and several feet of snow accumulation are possible through Wed morning. This wave will be the key feature for how long snow lingers across the northern Kenai Peninsula, the Cook Inlet, and parts of the Mat-Su Valleys as well. This forecast package leans more toward the slower solutions keeping the snow falling through the overnight hours with several more inches of new accumulation.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Blizzard conditions continue across the Kuskokwim Delta coast this morning, which will improve throughout the afternoon today as the occluded low lifts north out of the forecast area and winds weaken. Over the Bristol Bay coast, strong winds, snow, and low visibilities continue with southeasterly flow, which should switch over to southwest flow by late morning. Areas of blowing snow will continue until the winds and precipitation taper off along the coast by this afternoon. Isolated snow showers will continue through Wednesday as colder air filters back in across Southwest Alaska. Expect temperatures across Bristol Bay to be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler tonight into Wednesday than last night, and about 20 degrees cooler across the Kuskokwim Delta as cold air advection quickly moves in.

The next significant system will cross over the Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday, which will bring another round of complicated weather to the region. Expect strong winds to return to the Alaska Peninsula and along the Southwest coast of Bristol Bay, along with concerns for possible blowing snow as the front approaches the mainland. This system will also bring another round of snowfall to Southwest Alaska.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A low near Nunivak Island this morning will continue inland throughout the afternoon. As it does, winds across the eastern Bering and Aleutians will weaken through the evening. The next system is on track to cross over the western Aleutians this afternoon, progressing over the central Aleutians and Bering overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to stay at gale force level, but could see a swath of storm force gusts with it.

As this low moves into the eastern Bering by Thursday morning, concerns for strong northwest winds arise for areas along the northern side of the eastern Aleutians (including Dutch Harbor) and Alaska Peninsula (including Cold Bay). Widespread snow showers with gusty winds could lead to possible blowing snow conditions for these areas.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Thu through Sat).

Some gales are expected on Thursday and Thursday night to the south of the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as a system moves east into the Gulf. Gale to near storm force winds are expected along the north Gulf coast on Thursday associated with this same system. On Friday night and Saturday, Gale force west to northwest winds are expected over the Gulf and south of the Alaska Peninsula. A storm system moving into the western and central Aleutians on Saturday should produce gale force winds.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Fri through Mon).

On Friday morning the pattern will consist of an upper level trough over southwest Alaska extending southeastward into the Gulf of Alaska. The trough will very slowly slide northeast across southern Alaska through Sunday as the main upper low retreats northward. A weak ridge will then build over southern Alaska Sunday night, sliding eastward on Monday. An upper level low just south of the western Aleutians on Saturday will move eastward through Sunday, possibly moving north into the central Aleutians on Monday. The exact path and timing of this feature is somewhat uncertain at this time.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Storm Warning 101. Blizzard Warning 131. Winter Weather Advisory 111 121 145. MARINE . Storm Warning 119. Gale Warning 125 128 150 155 172-179 413 414. Freezing Spray 179 180 185 411 412 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . ALH MARINE/LONG TERM . BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46035 - BERING SEA 310 NM North of Adak, AK 41 mi83 min 29°F 37°F11 ft1001.1 hPa (+1.2)

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.