Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Paul, AK
April 24, 2024 6:28 PM AKDT (02:28 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 9:49 PM Moonrise 10:16 PM Moonset 5:11 AM |
PKZ412 Bering Sea Offshore 171w To 180 And North Of 56n- 259 Am Akdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Today - S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
Tonight - SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Thu - NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu night - N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri - N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat through Sun - SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
PKZ400
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Area Discussion for - Anchorage, AK
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FXAK68 PAFC 250107 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 507 PM AKDT Wed Apr 24 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...
The forecast remains on track, with few major changes. Quiet weather prevails for all but Kodiak Island and southern/eastern Kenai Peninsula, where fronts will bring light to moderate precipitation. No major hazards are currently being monitored.
Diving into the details... most of the Southcentral Mainland is experiencing nearly cloud-free skies under a ridge of high pressure, though daytime heating and instability are producing cumulus clouds in Western Kenai Peninsula and along area mountains. Daytime heating is also contributing to gusty winds through Knik River Valley and into Palmer, as well as along Turnagain Arm. Meanwhile, thicker cloud cover is present over southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island, where a front is presently located. The front will remain nearly stationary through Thursday evening, leading to precipitation accumulations of about another quarter to half inch for Kodiak Island.
By Thursday evening, an incoming shortwave will push the aforementioned front into the Southcentral Mainland and bring a North Pacific low towards Kodiak Island. The arrival of the front will bring increasing cloud cover and an end to the recent spell of sunnier weather for the Mainland. With the front weakening as it moves north, expect precipitation to remain light and largely confined to Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Still, a few stray showers are not out of the question for the remainder of the area. For Kodiak Island, the North Pacific low will bring with it a decent slug of moisture. Expect additional precipitation amounts of about an inch for eastern Kodiak Island, with up to about a half inch for the western/leeward side of Kodiak Island.
The good news is that these wetter conditions won't persist for long. By Saturday, precipitation will begin tapering off as the North Pacific low pivots southwards, leading to quieter weather for the weekend.
-KC
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A large vertically stacked low continues to take up real estate over the Bering this evening. Over the next couple of days the low is expected to fill in and weaken while shifting southeastward across the Eastern Aleutians through Friday. Small craft winds to around 30 knots are common on the backside of the low and extend into the Western and Central Aleutians, within general cyclonic flow around the low. This swath of marginally elevated winds will shrink in coverage through tonight while shifting between the Central and Eastern Aleutians by Thursday night. Conditions across the Bering become more benign Friday and Saturday with elevated northerly winds only expected through Alaska Peninsula.
Elsewhere, scattered rain showers are ongoing over Greater Bristol Bay. Shower activity extends northward into eastern portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and stretches as far east as Aniak. This activity is associated with remnants of an occluded front that has now shifted inland of the coast. Showers will remain possible into Thursday, but activity over the Kuskokwim Delta is expected to shift eastward into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Rain chances linger into Friday and finally diminish by the start of the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures for southwest Alaska will range from the mid 30s to upper 40s the next few days while overnight lows are expected stay in the low to mid 30s.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sun through Wed)...
The low that is currently over the Bering Sea will have meandered into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska for Sunday and slowly drift south along the western coast of North America through the early half of the week. A ridge will likely build behind the low across Southcentral. Embedded easterly waves could lead to brief showers in the Copper River Basin each day. A larger, embedded shortwave is possible for Tuesday along the ridge, but any moisture associated is still expected to be light and or showery.
Out west, a front is moving through the Bering and across the Aleutians. For Sunday, the front will be located around the central to eastern Aleutians and will reach the Pribilofs before weakening and being replaced by a larger and stronger occluded low Monday. This low will bring more moisture into the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Storm force winds look likely for the western Aleutians Monday morning, weakening to gales by Tuesday. Its front reaches the Southwest Alaska as early as Tuesday and spreading the bulk of the moisture to Southwest, the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island for Wednesday. Timing of the precipitation will depend on the position of synoptic feature, the progression, and orientation of the front. Although the overall synoptic setup is in better agreement for the extended period, the details could mean bigger differences in the QPF and wind fields across the Bering and Southwest Alaska.
rux
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 507 PM AKDT Wed Apr 24 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...
The forecast remains on track, with few major changes. Quiet weather prevails for all but Kodiak Island and southern/eastern Kenai Peninsula, where fronts will bring light to moderate precipitation. No major hazards are currently being monitored.
Diving into the details... most of the Southcentral Mainland is experiencing nearly cloud-free skies under a ridge of high pressure, though daytime heating and instability are producing cumulus clouds in Western Kenai Peninsula and along area mountains. Daytime heating is also contributing to gusty winds through Knik River Valley and into Palmer, as well as along Turnagain Arm. Meanwhile, thicker cloud cover is present over southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island, where a front is presently located. The front will remain nearly stationary through Thursday evening, leading to precipitation accumulations of about another quarter to half inch for Kodiak Island.
By Thursday evening, an incoming shortwave will push the aforementioned front into the Southcentral Mainland and bring a North Pacific low towards Kodiak Island. The arrival of the front will bring increasing cloud cover and an end to the recent spell of sunnier weather for the Mainland. With the front weakening as it moves north, expect precipitation to remain light and largely confined to Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Still, a few stray showers are not out of the question for the remainder of the area. For Kodiak Island, the North Pacific low will bring with it a decent slug of moisture. Expect additional precipitation amounts of about an inch for eastern Kodiak Island, with up to about a half inch for the western/leeward side of Kodiak Island.
The good news is that these wetter conditions won't persist for long. By Saturday, precipitation will begin tapering off as the North Pacific low pivots southwards, leading to quieter weather for the weekend.
-KC
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A large vertically stacked low continues to take up real estate over the Bering this evening. Over the next couple of days the low is expected to fill in and weaken while shifting southeastward across the Eastern Aleutians through Friday. Small craft winds to around 30 knots are common on the backside of the low and extend into the Western and Central Aleutians, within general cyclonic flow around the low. This swath of marginally elevated winds will shrink in coverage through tonight while shifting between the Central and Eastern Aleutians by Thursday night. Conditions across the Bering become more benign Friday and Saturday with elevated northerly winds only expected through Alaska Peninsula.
Elsewhere, scattered rain showers are ongoing over Greater Bristol Bay. Shower activity extends northward into eastern portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and stretches as far east as Aniak. This activity is associated with remnants of an occluded front that has now shifted inland of the coast. Showers will remain possible into Thursday, but activity over the Kuskokwim Delta is expected to shift eastward into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Rain chances linger into Friday and finally diminish by the start of the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures for southwest Alaska will range from the mid 30s to upper 40s the next few days while overnight lows are expected stay in the low to mid 30s.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sun through Wed)...
The low that is currently over the Bering Sea will have meandered into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska for Sunday and slowly drift south along the western coast of North America through the early half of the week. A ridge will likely build behind the low across Southcentral. Embedded easterly waves could lead to brief showers in the Copper River Basin each day. A larger, embedded shortwave is possible for Tuesday along the ridge, but any moisture associated is still expected to be light and or showery.
Out west, a front is moving through the Bering and across the Aleutians. For Sunday, the front will be located around the central to eastern Aleutians and will reach the Pribilofs before weakening and being replaced by a larger and stronger occluded low Monday. This low will bring more moisture into the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Storm force winds look likely for the western Aleutians Monday morning, weakening to gales by Tuesday. Its front reaches the Southwest Alaska as early as Tuesday and spreading the bulk of the moisture to Southwest, the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island for Wednesday. Timing of the precipitation will depend on the position of synoptic feature, the progression, and orientation of the front. Although the overall synoptic setup is in better agreement for the extended period, the details could mean bigger differences in the QPF and wind fields across the Bering and Southwest Alaska.
rux
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