St. Paul, AK Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Paul, AK

April 15, 2024 4:22 PM AKDT (00:22 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 9:25 PM
Moonrise 9:57 AM   Moonset 4:23 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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PKZ412 Bering Sea Offshore 171w To 180 And North Of 56n- 252 Am Akdt Mon Apr 15 2024

Today - NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

Tonight - W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.

Tue - NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.

Tue night - NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

Wed through Fri - N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul, AK
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Area Discussion for - Anchorage, AK
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Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 727 AM AKDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday night)...

Just about every location across Southcentral is being treated to nearly crystal clear skies this morning courtesy of a strong upper level ridge moving directly overhead. An offshore pressure gradient is quickly diminishing as flow from the surface to the upper levels becomes very weak near the crest of the ridge moving into place. Light winds , very dry dew points in 10s to 20s and clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop all the way into the upper 10s to low 20s this morning across all but the coastal Prince William Sound region, so expect a chilly start to the day today.
Temperatures will warm back into the 40s across interior valleys by this afternoon as much of the region sees another full day of sunshine.

By this evening, the ridge axis will begin to shift east towards the AlCan border, allowing flow to strengthen and become southerly between the ridge to the east and a low moving over the Bering Sea. This will allow an onshore gradient to develop, with light gap winds picking up along the Turnagain Arm, Knik Valley and Copper River Basin by late this afternoon. Cloud cover will begin to increase as moisture from the Gulf is pulled northward through Tuesday morning. However, any light rain/snow will be exclusively focused where winds upslope into terrain along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William Sound through at least Tuesday afternoon.

Between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, a more active pattern will begin to take shape as attention shifts to a large North Pacific low that will make slow progress north towards the AKPen through midweek. This low will advance a strong front and attendant moisture tap north into the southern and western Gulf, spreading strong easterly gale force winds with gusts into storm force range across the southwestern two-thirds of Gulf waters by Wednesday morning. The bigger impact from this system will be moderate to locally heavy precipitation rates spreading into Kodiak Island. Temperatures could be cold enough in the low to mid levels for initially a rain snow mix to move into Kodiak at sea level on Tuesday evening, but otherwise steady, moderate rain is expected to begin around this time and persist well into Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible across Kodiak Island between Tuesday evening and early Thursday morning, with potential for rainfall to persist into late in the week as the front stalls out. Lighter rainfall amounts generally less than an inch will also be possible along the eastern Kenai Peninsula during the same timeframe, including near Whittier and Seward.

Most of the remainder of Southcentral will stay dry but steadily cloudier through Wednesday night. Strong easterly gap winds will also develop along the Turnagain Arm Tuesday night and persist through at least Wednesday night.


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA, AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday night)...

A fully occluded, compact low will continue to trek north across the Bering Sea today...nearing the Bering Strait by this evening. Storm force winds have accompanied this system as the associated front pushes east across the eastern Bering and central Aleutians. Strong winds, along with moderate snowfall, moved into the Pribilof Islands overnight with winds gusting 50 to 55 mph and visibility dropping to a half mile at times. As the front pushes north and east this morning, conditions will improve across the Pribilofs by mid to late morning. Temperatures have remained near to just above freezing resulting in a heavy, wet snow...but may see a transition to a rain/snow mix before precipitation comes to an end later this morning.

This system will next impact the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island later today as it passes just to the west of Nunivak. The core of strong winds will move into the Kuskokwim Delta with snow quickly spreading inland with the arrival of the front. As with the Pribilofs, temperatures look to remain near freezing across Southwest resulting in a heavy, wet snow. This should help to minimize resuspended snow concerns, but a period of moderate snow and winds gusting up to 55 mph will allow for reduced visibilities.
The system will not linger long as it continues to lift towards the Strait, so only a few inches of snowfall accumulation are anticipated. The heaviest snowfall will be this afternoon and evening with improving conditions by late tonight through early Tuesday morning.

On the heels of the departing system, a Kamchatka low will eject into the western Bering with an elongated trough associated front sweeping east across the central Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain through midweek.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

An amplified pattern will be in place on Thursday with a longwave trough stretching from western Alaska to south of the Eastern Aleutians. Anchored in place, through at least Thursday, will be a vertically stacked low to the south of the Alaska Peninsula.
Enhanced northerly flow over the Bering with below normal temperatures are forecast across the Bering into the Central Aleutians Thursday. Downstream of the trough, southeasterly flow will bring plentiful moisture into the western Gulf along with warmer temperatures. Kodiak Island, in particular, will be in the cross hairs of a potential atmospheric river. With an initial round of precipitation on Wednesday, renewed and heavier rainfall will be possible Thursday into Friday as the stacked low south of the AKPEN remains largely stationary. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the front and steady precipitation will make it. Portions of the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound could see a period of steady precipitation (primarily in the form of rain at sea level) mid to late week, or it could stay mostly dry if the front stalls to the south. Details to resolve over the coming days will be how far south and west the low moves while south of the AKPEN. The deterministic GFS continues to trend well west of ensemble guidance, which could change the location of the atmospheric river entirely by the middle of next week, and will certainly have implications on precipitation chances for Kodiak as well as the Gulf coast.


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