Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ugashik, AK

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Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 9:49PM Monday August 19, 2019 12:42 PM AKDT (20:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:34PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ugashik, AK
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location: 57.52, -156.07     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 191322
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
522 am akdt Mon aug 19 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The overall longwave pattern remains similar to yesterday. A broad
upper level high remains situated over the bering with lows on
either side. This is leading to generally quiet conditions over
the aleutians. The shortwave trough that contributed to the strong
winds over southcentral today has moved offshore, however gusty
northerly winds are presently continuing this morning in its
wake. As such, low temperatures should remain on the warmer side
where winds are the strongest.

Model discussion
Model agreement is good over the next 48 hours and confidence is
moderate to high for this period. There is a noticeable
difference late Tuesday into Wednesday with the european model
tracking a relatively strong upper low well south of the alaska
range, whereas all other major models keep it much further to the
north. This would mean the difference between a mostly sunny day
or a mostly cloudy day with widespread showers across
southcentral. As the european is the only model showing the latter
and the american canadian models have exhibited good run-to-run
consistency, we are currently leaning towards those solutions in
the latest forecast.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Light northerly winds will
generally persist through this morning. Though some uncertainty
still exists, winds will likely shift to southeasterly by mid-
afternoon, with brief gusts possible this evening.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Mon and
tue)...

after the series of dry cold fronts from the weekend, the area
will start to stabilize to start the week. Winds continue to
diminish across all areas with the matanuska valley being the
staunch hold out through the morning hours. Temperatures will be
still a few degrees cooler than sun, with some of the lower lying
valleys and parts of east anchorage starting out in the 30s. Smoke
will be persistent across much of the susitna valley and the kenai
peninsula. We expect some turnagain arm winds to develop later
this afternoon and this should allow some of the smoke to filter
back into the anchorage bowl as well.

For tonight, expect low temperatures to be some of the coldest we
have seen in a while with clear skies and light winds. By early tue,
a weak front will slide from SW ak over kodiak island. This will
bring a chance for light rain to kodiak and the coastal areas of
the souther kenai peninsula. Unfortunately, not much, if any of
this rain looks to make it inland to make much difference for the
fire areas. Dry conditions look to continue for just about all
inland areas through at least the middle of the week.

Fire weather
Another extraordinarily dry day with rh values
dipping into the low 20s is in store for much of the area.

The good news is that winds should be markedly lighter than they
were over the weekend. The lone exception is the matanuska valley
were winds continued to be strong and gusty all through the
night. By later this morning, we expect those winds to slowly drop
off as well. The dry airmass combined with those winds have
severely limited recoveries in some locations. So far, the palmer
airport has only been able to muster an unbelievable 33% rh
overnight. As the northerly gradient decreases through the day,
winds should become light and be mostly slope terrain driven this
afternoon. The couple exceptions should be along the turnagain
arm and the knik river valley where a light SE wind should start
by late this afternoon.

Tonight, much calmer conditions and better rh recoveries are
expected as the area will be caught between systems. A very weak
front will skirt through the kodiak island area on Tue bringing a
chance for rain to coastal areas and increasing clouds further
inland. Chances for any precipitation making it to the swan lake
fire or further north are meager and limited to mountain showers.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
High pressure in the bering will shift to the west, while a trough
near the bering strait dives southward later today. What this
means for sensible weather is that winds will initially be
offshore along the kuskokwim delta coast and bristol bay coast,
then become more variable under the influence of the trough. This
trough will bring cooler conditions and a chance for
precipitation this evening into tonight for the kuskokwim
delta coast then reaching the bristol bay area by mid-day Tuesday.

Expect a return to drier conditions by Wednesday as the trough
exits to the east and high pressure develops to the west.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
Strong upper ridging in the bering will retreat to the northwest,
and a gale force low in the north pacific will push an occluded
front towards the western aleutians. Expect precipitation in the
western aleutians today, then spreading to the central and eastern
aleutians Tuesday and Wednesday as a secondary low develops in the
eastern periphery of the primary low. The western aleutians will
see small craft advisory level winds today into Tuesday, with a
small swath of gales embedded today south of the chain. Otherwise,
north to northeast winds will continue over the pribilof islands,
with a slight chance of precipitation Tuesday as a trough dips
southward along the coast of western alaska.

Fire weather
While offshore flow will continue today over southwest, wind will
be markedly weaker than yesterday, and conditions will be
noticeably cooler as the warm air mass previously over the eastern
bering retreats westward. That said, afternoon humidities may
still approach critical values in the middle kuskokwim valley,
and over the ridges in the kilbuck ahklun mountains and the
alaska aleutian range today.

Multiple fires continue to burn in the greater bristol bay area...

judging by satellite-derived fire temperature, the most active
fires in southwest are the ethel creek fire, roughly 40 miles
northeast of koliganek, and a new start as of yesterday very near
levelock. These fires will continue to be the main smoke
producers, impacting surrounding areas and areas downstream.

Farther away, a general haze will likely be detectable. An
incoming trough should improve conditions by Tuesday.

Marine (days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)
On Wednesday a surface low with a front across the western bering
weakens into Thursday as a new low center develops south of the
alaska peninsula. This low will then be the focus Thursday and
Friday. There is high uncertainty in the track, strength and
timing of this system and should be monitored as it will likely
deepen quickly into a gale force system.

.Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

the extended forecast beginning next Thursday continues with a
mostly dry pattern across the southern mainland... However, low
pressure will be active over the mainland and gulf. Chances for
rain are broad brushed across the forecast area as an upper level
low near the northern alcan border interacts with with a better
organizing system over the gulf. To the west... A ridge slowly
builds across the western bering Thursday through Sunday bringing
a stable air mass and low level clouds and fog with it. The
southwest mainland and eastern bering will be under a gustier
northerly flow pattern as the pressure gradient between low
pressure to the east and ridging to the west vie for dominance.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning: 177 178.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ap
southcentral alaska... Mso
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mm
marine long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 104 mi53 min S 3.9 G 5.8 57°F 59°F1 ft1014.8 hPa (+0.0)47°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAPN

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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Tide / Current Tables for Kanatak Lagoon, Portage Bay, Alaska
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Kanatak Lagoon
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Mon -- 04:59 AM AKDT     11.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:47 AM AKDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM AKDT     10.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:33 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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23.55.88.310.411.110.69.174.62.40.90.61.73.86.48.910.510.79.88.26.142.4

Tide / Current Tables for Lees Cabins, Wide Bay, Alaska
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Lees Cabins
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Mon -- 04:59 AM AKDT     11.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:28 AM AKDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:34 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:37 PM AKDT     10.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:34 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:44 PM AKDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.23.96.28.710.611.310.796.74.11.90.60.724.36.99.210.710.99.985.73.62.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.