Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ugashik, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

The broad surface low will be pushing into Southwest Alaska this afternoon, with an initial push of widespread cloud cover and light precipitation covering much of the region. Showers begin to diminish tomorrow as the wave departs the region, though continued light rain and snow will be possible at elevation across the mountains. Some isolated thunderstorms and lightning activity was detected early this afternoon over interior Southwest in the lower Kuskokwim Valley. Conditions improve by Thursday afternoon across Southwest Alaska as high pressure briefly becomes established.

Focus shifts to a potent low pressure system moving over the Westernmost Aleutians by early Thursday morning. This system will bring warmer air with it, allowing for the vast majority of precipitation associated with the system to be plain rainfall.
Models have been trending with slightly more northward pushes from this storm system, but ultimately keeping the low center still south of the Aleutian Chain as it tracks steadily eastward along the Pacific side of the Aleutians. The low is expected to continue to deepen and allow for gradually stronger winds as it reaches Unalaska by Friday. By Saturday morning, the general agreement between the models is that the low will push its eastern front into the Southwestern coastline. By then the low center may meander into the southeastern Bering Sea allowing for precipitation to return to the Pribilof Islands as well. By late Saturday into Sunday, a pattern of widespread showers over the Southwest and much of the Aleutians is expected. Strong east- southeasterly winds into the northern greater Bristol Bay area is expected.

-CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Upper level troughing over the Bering Sea extending into the Gulf looks to persist through at least early to mid next week, allowing for the unsettled weather across much of southern Alaska to continue. By Sunday morning, models remain in good agreement on a front lifting north and stalling in the northern Gulf. This front is expected to bring moderate to potentially heavy precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound, while strong east to southeasterly winds in the Gulf begin to diminish through Sunday. Chances for showers across inland locations for Southcentral and Southwest Alaska increase heading into next week as successive shortwaves within the broad cyclonic flow behind the front rotate north into southern Alaska.

Meanwhile, the parent low in the Bering begins to merge with the next incoming Kamchatka low which strengthens and consolidates just to the south of the Aleutian Chain by early next week, bringing another round of winds and rain to the AKPen and Southwest Alaska. Model agreement begins to wane heading into the middle of next week, although ensemble means favor this low taking a more northerly track into the Bering as another front and plume of moisture moves east into the Gulf.


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the period. Showers may develop around the terminal through this evening; however, any shower activity that does develop should be rather limited in scope and rainfall amount, due to a broad southeasterly downsloping wind at mountain top level. The southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind over the terminal this afternoon will continue through late tonight before diminishing and becoming light and variable overnight into early Thursday. Wind gusts late this afternoon through late evening could approach 25 kts (30 mph).
Ceilings could fall to around 5,000 ft overnight before lifting Thursday morning.

-TM