Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ugashik, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Broad cyclonic flow persists across the Bering Sea through the short-term period as the parent upper low gradually lifts north toward the Chukchi Sea. Several embedded shortwaves continue to rotate around the circulation, maintaining an unsettled pattern across Southwest Alaska and much of the Bering. Guidance remains in good agreement on the overall evolution of the synoptic pattern, supporting strong forecast confidence.

Through Wednesday, periods of rain will continue across portions of the Kuskokwim Delta, Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and western Alaska Range as another shortwave moves inland. Additional showers will persist across much of Southwest Alaska through Thursday, though model guidance indicates precipitation coverage and intensity gradually diminish as the upper low pulls further north and large-scale forcing weakens. By Friday, showers become more scattered with increasing breaks in precipitation across Southwest Alaska.

Across the Bering and aleutians, broad cyclonic flow supports widespread low clouds and scattered showers through much of the period. While showers become somewhat less widespread late Thursday into Friday, a developing North Pacific low remains south of the aleutian Chain. Current guidance keeps the deeper moisture and heaviest precipitation south of the forecast area through Friday, though increasing cloud cover and a slight increase in shower coverage may approach the western and central Aleutians late in the period. Southeasterly winds increase modestly Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens before easing and becoming more southwesterly late Thursday into Friday.

LM



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

An upper-level low situated over North-central Alaska will send shortwave energy southward across the Southern Mainland. The resulting weather will be diurnally-driven showers this weekend into next week. This pattern supports more of a scattered shower regime as opposed to widespread stratiform. The challenge will be to gauge instability each afternoon to determine whether or not lightning will be a threat with any robust showers that form.
Right now, it looks like the Copper River Basin, along the Talkeetna Mountains, and along the Western Alaska Range feature the most instability through the long-term period.

Farther west, a system will drop south out of Upper Kamchatka and into the Bering Sea by Saturday morning. The point of uncertainty with this system is its progression. The GFS solution is the quickest with the system and places it near the Pribilofs Saturday morning. The Canadian and European guidance is slower with the progression and has the system in the north-central Bering near St. Matthew/St. Lawrence Islands Saturday morning. Regardless of the differences in speed/progression, this system does not look all that strong or impactful; just wet for the Pribilofs and perhaps the Central Aleutian Chain for this weekend. A separate front enters the western Bering on Monday and brings the Western Aleutians a round of rain Monday into Tuesday. A North Pacific low lifts towards the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday morning. This system will bear further watching and interrogation as a tropical moisture plume may accompany this system.


AVIATION

PANC...Light southeasterly winds and VFR ceilings expected this morning through late this afternoon, however, brief clearing of cloud cover may allow a scattered 300-500 ft deck to develop this morning. Ceilings are expected to fall to the MVFR range this evening along with an increasing chance for a shower or two in the vicinity of the terminal.