Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Larsen Bay, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:34AMSunset 4:49PM Saturday January 25, 2020 5:46 AM AKST (14:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 5:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 359 Am Akst Sat Jan 25 2020
.gale warning today...
.heavy freezing spray warning tonight and Sunday...
Today..N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
Tonight..N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Sun..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Sun night..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Mon through Wed..W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK
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location: 57.53, -154     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 251349 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 449 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

This morning's analysis aloft showed a pair of mid-level lows over the northern Gulf and eastern interior respectively, with a negatively tilted ridge stretching from eastern Siberia, through the Pribilof Islands and eastern Aleutians, into the north Pacific. Another mid-level low was located west of Shemya. All of these lows have a surface low reflection as well.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

The numerical guidance remains in great agreement through the middle of next week in the synoptic pattern aloft, with good agreement at the surface through early Tuesday. Thereafter, the main difference lies with a very strong area of low pressure racing north into the Gulf by Wednesday. The GFS had previously been an outlier in this as it depicted a surface low around ~940 mb heading towards eastern Prince william Sound. It had been showing this off and on (more so on) for a few days. However, it has gained support from both the European and Canadian models, as they all show a ~950 mb low (give or take a few mb) heading into the east central Gulf.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and northeasterly wind gusts to 25 knots will prevail through the period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2. Sat and Sun) .

Synoptically, the pattern will remain largely unchanged through the weekend. The net effect for most locations will be continued cold and dry surface conditions with gusty winds in the typical gaps. A deep upper level trough remains parked over the entire southern half of the state. Within the trough remains a broad cyclonic circulation over the Northern Gulf. To the west of this circulation, northwest flow over the warmer Cook Inlet and Gulf of AK waters continues to produce bands of snow over north and west Kodiak Island. On the eastern side of the circulation, there is more moisture available which is leading to widespread snow showers near Middleton Island and Cordova. Over the mainland, cold temperatures remain largely dependent on exactly where the winds are blowing and how much cloud cover is drifting through the area. This forecast package has warmed some of the overnight lows in places like the Susitna Valley and W Anchorage where winds will remain breezy.

As we go through the weekend, the biggest change will a strong, fast-moving low that sweeps up the eastern side of the trough near Yakutat Sun morning. The forecast models are struggling greatly with this feature and how it interacts with the current circulation in the Gulf, so we have kept changes to a minimum overnight. At the very least, it will enhance snow chances markedly for the NE Gulf Coast (to include Valdez) where several inches are expected. Some of that snow looks to pass through the Copper River Basin bringing some light accumulations there as well. This strong low will also serve to pull some even colder air at 850 mb (5000') further south. Temperatures at that level look to reach down into the 30 below range. If winds and temperatures continue to line up, this will likely spell wind chill advisory level conditions (-40F) for Thompson Pass as early as tonight.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Southwest Alaska remains currently situated between an upper low centered in the northern Gulf and a strong upper high over the Bering. This is leading to strong northerly winds aloft and thus colder surface temperatures moving into the region. High and low temperatures will continue to gradually fall as the aforementioned upper low shifts westward this weekend. Wind Chill Advisories remain in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay zones through noon Sunday, though may need to be extended further. Mostly sunny conditions should prevail across the area through early next week, however onshore show showers/blowing snow are possible across Bristol Bay and portions of the Alaska Peninsula.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A surface low becoming vertically stacked near Kamchatka is leading to the weakening of its associated front. As such, rain/snow showers and gusty easterly winds will diminish over the western Bering/Aleutians through today. Subsequent lows will approach from the North Pacific Sunday and Monday, however will remain far enough offshore to have any significant impacts. Strong upper level high pressure will bring more benign conditions farther east. Isolated flurries remain possible into early next week.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

Gulf of Alaska:

For Sunday and Monday, the interaction between low pressure in the northwest Gulf and a ridge inland will continue to produce gusty outflow winds through bays and passes. Gales and heavy freezing spray will remain likely across Kamishak Bay and the Barren Islands. A front associated with the low will be situated along the coast with southerly small-craft winds (and possibly a small area of weak gales) over the central Gulf, behind this feature. By late Tuesday, there is an increasing potential for a strong gale-force (and potentially a storm-force) low (~950mb) lifting north into the Gulf, reaching the Kenai Peninsula by late Wednesday.

Bering Sea and Aleutians:

Widespread small-craft winds and some gales will linger into early Monday as a low near the western Aleutians continues to dive southwest away from the Chain. Gusty northerly winds will persist across the rest of the Bering and eastern half of the Chain through mid-week with the strongest winds and greatest potential for heavy freezing spray across the far eastern Aleutian Chain and AKPEN.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7).

Moving into early next week, the core of the persistent upper- level low centered over Kodiak Island will shift slightly west. This shift looks to be enough to introduce a more southerly flow over the Gulf and advance a potential storm-force low north from the Pacific for late Tuesday into Wednesday. As it reaches the Southcentral coast, its upper-level energy will phase with the aforementioned low and reestablish the upper-level low back over Kodiak Island through the end of the week. This pattern would favor a push of gusty southerly winds, warmer temperatures, and snow across the Southcentral coast, perhaps pushing inland a bit, in association with the surface low through late Wednesday. After that, conditions across the Southcentral coast look to remain unsettled with a southeasterly flow continuing across the northern Gulf. Elsewhere across the Southern Mainland, it looks to remain quite cold as arctic air remains in place at the surface along with northeasterly winds, especially for the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley. Some clouds and snow could spill over the Alaska Range by mid-week as the low in the Gulf nears the Kenai Peninsula. Farther west, high pressure sliding south across the western Bering and Aleutians will keep gusty northerly winds and snow showers going through midweek. A weak surface low then looks to track across the Bering by the end of the week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Wind Chill Advisory 155 161 MARINE . Gale Warning 119 121 127 128 130 131 138 139 150 175 176 177 178 185 411 412 413 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 121 127 129 130 138 141 150 160 165 179 180 185 412 414 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . TM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 27 mi56 min NE 16 G 19 21°F 40°F4 ft997.6 hPa (+0.0)10°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 46 mi46 min NW 5.1 G 7 16°F 33°F996.6 hPa (+0.0)
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 80 mi52 min SSW 11 G 19 19°F 34°F995.5 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska
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Larsen Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:53 AM AKST     13.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:40 AM AKST     2.69 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:31 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:27 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:26 PM AKST     15.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:24 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:08 PM AKST     -2.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.810.613.113.91310.87.84.93.12.84.3710.313.214.814.7139.85.81.8-1.3-2.5-1.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Uyak, Uyak Bay, Alaska
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Uyak
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:51 AM AKST     14.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:40 AM AKST     2.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:31 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:27 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:24 PM AKST     14.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:25 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:23 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:08 PM AKST     -1.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.31113.414.113.110.77.64.52.52.33.86.710.113.114.814.712.99.96.12.2-0.7-1.9-1.11.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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