Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak68 pafc 211256 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 456 am akdt Wed aug 21 2019 Analysis and upper levels An upper level trough is departing southcentral to the east over the copper river basin this morning. Weak ridging and an associated just streak is moving into the gulf at the base of the trough. An upper level shortwave trough is helping move the jet streak into the eastern gulf. Ridging is building over the northern bering, with a vertically stacked low located south of the central aleutians. This pattern with broad northerly flow over southern mainland alaska continues to support dry conditions. Scattered light rain that occurred over kodiak yesterday is moving off with the upper level jet streak and associated upper level shortwave. A front at the leading edge of the vertically stacked low south of the aleutians is producing the only consistent rainfall in southern alaska. This is occurring from around cold bay westward through dutch harbor. A weakening meso-low over the susitna valley is moving wildfire smoke northward up the parks highway, and southward down the western susitna valley. Temperatures across much of southern alaska are dropping through the 40s for most areas away from anchorage and the coast, as skies clear out. Model discussion Model agreement continues to be very good regarding the track of the low south of the central aleutians tracking east and developing triple-point lows as it moves along. There is some minor disagreement on how far north the rain shield goes, namely as regards how much rain kodiak gets out of this system. Outside of kodiak and maybe the immediate gulf coast, the low track is simply too far south to bring much-needed rains to southcentral. The next feature of interest is a passing upper level trough that will dig into southwest alaska late Thursday night, and then pivot eastward into southcentral sometime during the day on Friday. Minor timing issues persist, but this feature remains southcentral's best chance of precipitation in the short-term. The models are very different in their depiction of how much precipitation can be expected, but the theme even among the wettest ones is to not expect very much out of it, but the question of whether any one area sees any rain at all remains unanswered. Aviation Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Smoke from the swan lake and other area fires may briefly lower visibilities, and will otherwise be in the area. However, between low confidence on when that would happen and a generally unfavorable wind flow to transport much thicker smoke into the area, it was left out of the taf. The turnagain arm wind is expected to develop south of the airport tonight. It is not forecast to impact the terminal directly, but may affect approach and departure routes. It may eventually move into the airport Thursday afternoon, beyond the current TAF period. Fire weather (southcentral) Fire weather concerns remain largely unchanged this morning. Relative humidity values are expected to gradually increase over the next few days. Temperatures are expected to remain in the range of normal to a few degrees above normal for the next few days as well. This translates to highs remaining in the 65 to 72 degree range, roughly, for most areas. There remains very little chance of precipitation over any of the area fires, as any chance of rain through Thursday remains over the mountains. Precipitation chances increase a bit on Friday as a mostly dry cold front moves over the area. This may be able to collect enough moisture for isolated to scattered showers to develop, mainly Friday afternoon. Unfortunately only small rainfall amounts of up to a few hundredths of an inch in any showers can be expected. Winds will be the primary concern in the short-term. Light winds will persist over the area fires today, but this evening, the winds will turn to east to southeast. The winds won't be particularly strong, up to 20 mph through turnagain arm. Winds through kenai lake and cooper landing may get to 10 mph with higher gusts, which may impact fire conditions at the swan lake fire. The easterly winds are expected to persist through the kenai peninsula and turnagain arm through much of the day Thursday. .Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3 today through Friday night)... expect a dry day across southcentral as weak ridging moves overhead. Clouds associated with an upper low over the interior will affect mainly the far northern susitna valley and much of the copper river basin. Otherwise, expect hazy sunshine as smoke from

the many ongoing wildfires continues to blanket the region. A dense smoke advisory is in effect for the interior kenai peninsula south to seward. Light winds and stable conditions will keep smoked from the swan lake fire trapped near the surface. Would expect some improvement in visibilities during peak heating this afternoon and evening, though there was not a whole lot of improvement yesterday. This will largely depend on fire activity and how much new smoke is being generated. A wind shift will ensue across the kenai peninsula this evening in response to a front entering the southern gulf. Low level winds will shift from northwesterly to easterly and increasing overnight tonight through Thursday. This should help clear out some of the smoke on the eastern kenai and push smoke westward across the western kenai and possibly back into anchorage. A robust turnagain arm wind will develop which should keep visibilities from dropping very low. Also expect some localized gusty winds through the knik river valley and along the copper river, but these will be relatively weak. The front moving into the gulf tonight will be followed by the parent low moving in from the aleutians on Thursday. This low will track quickly to the eastern gulf, with the bulk of rain remaining over kodiak island and the gulf. Thus, Thursday looks like another dry day across southcentral. The next chance of rain will come Friday as a trough drops out of the northwest. While the trough does not look very strong, cold air aloft will produce enough instability to generate some showers, especially along the mountains. Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3) Quiet weather is expected today... With generally clear skies and behind the influence of an upper trough, temperatures will trend several degrees warmer than yesterday in most of southwest. A shortwave trough will dive southward from the chukchi sea Thursday, strengthening north flow and bringing cooler conditions Thursday and Friday. While some precipitation is possible along the associated front, this looks to be a fairly dry system and it's likely that precipitation will be limited to the mountains. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 3) A triple point low developing roughly 200 miles south of dutch harbor will continue to influence the eastern aleutians today, bringing precipitation and small craft advisory level winds and a small swath of gales south of the akpen tonight as a barrier jet develops against the aleutian range. This system will exit to the east Thursday, and broad north flow will prevail over the bering. Expect widespread fog over the bering by Friday as cold air with arctic origins passes over warmer waters. Fire weather (southwest) Several fires continue in the greater bristol bay area, including the levelock fire and a fire near port alsworth. Smoke will continue at the surface in the vicinity and downwind of active fires. That said, based on satellite-derived fire temperature, fires look to be less active than yesterday. Thus, expect smoke to be less widespread than we've seen the past few days, and a general haze over southwest is more likely. In any case, a dry cold front should bring some good mixing Friday. Marine (days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday) A low in the gulf will produce easterly small craft winds and possible low-end gales along the northern gulf coast as it tracks eastward through Friday. Behind the low, westerly winds return to the gulf through the weekend. Meanwhile out west, northerly small craft winds are expected over the eastern bering while a ridge of high pressure persists over the western bering. .Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... there is increasing confidence that the long term forecast includes an active pattern over the southern mainland while more stable conditions will persist over the bering. A longwave trough in place over much of the state will allow several upper level waves to propagate across the southern mainland. Northerly flow is expected along the western coast of the state through the weekend. There is increasing confidence regarding the arrival of a north pacific low entering the western gulf by Monday afternoon, however models solutions continue to disagree on the strength and track of this low. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... Dense smoke advisory: 121 125. Marine... Gale warning: 155. Fire weather... None. Synopsis and model discussion... Jpw southcentral alaska... Seb southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mm marine long term... Ko

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK	27 mi	50 min	NE 5.8 G 7.8	55°F	59°F	1 ft	1007.4 hPa (+0.0)	47°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK	46 mi	58 min	ESE 8.9 G 9.9	57°F	57°F		1006.6 hPa
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK	80 mi	64 min	ENE 2.9 G 5.1	56°F	60°F		1007.4 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

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Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Uyak, Uyak Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon

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