Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for -

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXAK68 PAFC 251349 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 449 AM AKST Sat Jan 25 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

This morning's analysis aloft showed a pair of mid-level lows over the northern Gulf and eastern interior respectively, with a negatively tilted ridge stretching from eastern Siberia, through the Pribilof Islands and eastern Aleutians, into the north Pacific. Another mid-level low was located west of Shemya. All of these lows have a surface low reflection as well.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

The numerical guidance remains in great agreement through the middle of next week in the synoptic pattern aloft, with good agreement at the surface through early Tuesday. Thereafter, the main difference lies with a very strong area of low pressure racing north into the Gulf by Wednesday. The GFS had previously been an outlier in this as it depicted a surface low around ~940 mb heading towards eastern Prince william Sound. It had been showing this off and on (more so on) for a few days. However, it has gained support from both the European and Canadian models, as they all show a ~950 mb low (give or take a few mb) heading into the east central Gulf.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and northeasterly wind gusts to 25 knots will prevail through the period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2. Sat and Sun) .

Synoptically, the pattern will remain largely unchanged through the weekend. The net effect for most locations will be continued cold and dry surface conditions with gusty winds in the typical gaps. A deep upper level trough remains parked over the entire southern half of the state. Within the trough remains a broad cyclonic circulation over the Northern Gulf. To the west of this circulation, northwest flow over the warmer Cook Inlet and Gulf of AK waters continues to produce bands of snow over north and west Kodiak Island. On the eastern side of the circulation, there is more moisture available which is leading to widespread snow showers near Middleton Island and Cordova. Over the mainland, cold temperatures remain largely dependent on exactly where the winds are blowing and how much cloud cover is drifting through the area. This forecast package has warmed some of the overnight lows in places like the Susitna Valley and W Anchorage where winds will remain breezy.

As we go through the weekend, the biggest change will a strong, fast-moving low that sweeps up the eastern side of the trough near Yakutat Sun morning. The forecast models are struggling greatly with this feature and how it interacts with the current circulation in the Gulf, so we have kept changes to a minimum overnight. At the very least, it will enhance snow chances markedly for the NE Gulf Coast (to include Valdez) where several inches are expected. Some of that snow looks to pass through the Copper River Basin bringing some light accumulations there as well. This strong low will also serve to pull some even colder air at 850 mb (5000') further south. Temperatures at that level look to reach down into the 30 below range. If winds and temperatures continue to line up, this will likely spell wind chill advisory level conditions (-40F) for Thompson Pass as early as tonight.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Southwest Alaska remains currently situated between an upper low centered in the northern Gulf and a strong upper high over the Bering. This is leading to strong northerly winds aloft and thus colder surface temperatures moving into the region. High and low temperatures will continue to gradually fall as the aforementioned upper low shifts westward this weekend. Wind Chill Advisories remain in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay zones through noon Sunday, though may need to be extended further. Mostly sunny conditions should prevail across the area through early next week, however onshore show showers/blowing snow are possible across Bristol Bay and portions of the Alaska Peninsula.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A surface low becoming vertically stacked near Kamchatka is leading to the weakening of its associated front. As such, rain/snow showers and gusty easterly winds will diminish over the western Bering/Aleutians through today. Subsequent lows will approach from the North Pacific Sunday and Monday, however will remain far enough offshore to have any significant impacts. Strong upper level high pressure will bring more benign conditions farther east. Isolated flurries remain possible into early next week.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

Gulf of Alaska:

For Sunday and Monday, the interaction between low pressure in the northwest Gulf and a ridge inland will continue to produce gusty outflow winds through bays and passes. Gales and heavy freezing spray will remain likely across Kamishak Bay and the Barren Islands. A front associated with the low will be situated along the coast with southerly small-craft winds (and possibly a small area of weak gales) over the central Gulf, behind this feature. By late Tuesday, there is an increasing potential for a strong gale-force (and potentially a storm-force) low (~950mb) lifting north into the Gulf, reaching the Kenai Peninsula by late Wednesday.

Bering Sea and Aleutians:

Widespread small-craft winds and some gales will linger into early Monday as a low near the western Aleutians continues to dive southwest away from the Chain. Gusty northerly winds will persist across the rest of the Bering and eastern half of the Chain through mid-week with the strongest winds and greatest potential for heavy freezing spray across the far eastern Aleutian Chain and AKPEN.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7).

Moving into early next week, the core of the persistent upper- level low centered over Kodiak Island will shift slightly west. This shift looks to be enough to introduce a more southerly flow over the Gulf and advance a potential storm-force low north from the Pacific for late Tuesday into Wednesday. As it reaches the Southcentral coast, its upper-level energy will phase with the aforementioned low and reestablish the upper-level low back over Kodiak Island through the end of the week. This pattern would favor a push of gusty southerly winds, warmer temperatures, and snow across the Southcentral coast, perhaps pushing inland a bit, in association with the surface low through late Wednesday. After that, conditions across the Southcentral coast look to remain unsettled with a southeasterly flow continuing across the northern Gulf. Elsewhere across the Southern Mainland, it looks to remain quite cold as arctic air remains in place at the surface along with northeasterly winds, especially for the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley. Some clouds and snow could spill over the Alaska Range by mid-week as the low in the Gulf nears the Kenai Peninsula. Farther west, high pressure sliding south across the western Bering and Aleutians will keep gusty northerly winds and snow showers going through midweek. A weak surface low then looks to track across the Bering by the end of the week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Wind Chill Advisory 155 161 MARINE . Gale Warning 119 121 127 128 130 131 138 139 150 175 176 177 178 185 411 412 413 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 121 127 129 130 138 141 150 160 165 179 180 185 412 414 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP MARINE/LONG TERM . TM

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK	27 mi	56 min	NE 16 G 19	21°F	40°F	4 ft	997.6 hPa (+0.0)	10°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK	46 mi	46 min	NW 5.1 G 7	16°F	33°F		996.6 hPa (+0.0)
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK	80 mi	52 min	SSW 11 G 19	19°F	34°F		995.5 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

Last 24hr

NW21 G28

NW19 G24

NW19 G27

NW15 G26

NW16 G20

NW15 G22

NW17

NW15 G20

NW13 G18

NW15 G21

NW11 G17

NW11 G15

NW13 G19

NW9 G13

NW10 G16

NW9 G13

NW11 G15

NW9 G13

N6 G9

N6

NW5

N7 G11

N4 G8

NW5

1 day ago

NW7 G12

NW7 G11

NW12 G16

NW14 G20

NW16 G25

NW16 G24

NW19 G26

NW17 G26

NW27 G35

NW17 G29

NW14 G24

NW11 G15

NW15 G22

NW20 G27

NW16 G27

NW15 G22

NW11 G18

NW16 G26

NW20 G27

NW19 G29

NW15 G24

NW18 G29

NW17 G23

NW21 G28

2 days ago

NW13 G17

NW14 G18

NW12 G18

NW15 G19

NW8 G16

NW11 G15

NW11 G14

NW10 G13

NW6 G10

NW10 G13

NW11 G14

NW9 G14

N6 G9

N5 G9

NW5 G10

N6 G10

NW3 G6

NW4 G7

NW7 G10

NW9 G12

NW10 G13

NW7 G13

NW8 G12

NW7 G11

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

-12 PM

Last 24hr

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

1 day ago

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

2 days ago

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

---

Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data

---

Tide / Current Tables for Uyak, Uyak Bay, Alaska

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.