Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 290131 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 531 PM AKDT Wed Jul 28 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A ridge extends from the Alaska Peninsula northeastward to Southcentral, with moisture and a weak short-wave moving over-top of the ridge and across Southcentral. This is producing widespread cloud cover along with areas of light rain, primarily from the northern Susitna and western Copper River Basin southward to eastern Prince William Sound. Out west, a high amplitude upper level trough and large upper level low are situated over the Bering Sea with a slow-moving front to its south, extending from the Western Aleutians northeastward into the Kuskokwim Delta per latest satellite imagery. Strong southerly surface winds are impacting the west coast of Alaska ahead of the front. Elevated seas and enhanced surf will be a continued threat into the overnight hours along the Kuskokwim Delta coast.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

There are very few differences in short-term models and good agreement between them should persist through the end of the week. Models eventually begin to diverge over the weekend with the evolution of a trough of low pressure south of the Aleutians as well as a more subtle disturbance into the Bering on Saturday. Short term concerns include intensity and placement of continued rainfall associated with a nearly stationary front lying across Southwest Alaska tonight through Friday. Multiple weak impulses within the upper level flow could promote more intense shower activity versus lighter rain, but nailing down these finer details will continue to be a struggle beyond 48 hours. Otherwise, forecast confidence remains high with the big picture. Ridging over Southcentral will prevail into the end of the week, keeping systems out west at bay.

AVIATION.

Low end VFR ceilings (around or a bit lower than 5000 feet) will persist into this evening, but then expect ceilings to begin to lift as the upper short-wave and associated deeper moisture exit to the south and east. With a broad surface ridge to the south over the Gulf, winds will remain light.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday) .

Light rain developed today from the Mat-Su Valleys south to Prince William Sound and surrounding high elevations in response to an upper level wave coupled with residual moisture and weak upslope flow. The rain will diminish tonight as the upper level wave weakens, leaving only isolated showers over the mountains at least through Thursday morning. Meanwhile, a mix of low and high clouds are covering most of Southcentral, with some partial clearing near Homer and some breaks in the clouds elsewhere. In addition to the sea breezes in the typical local effect areas, expect gusty winds this afternoon over Kenai with the aid of a broad southwesterly flow between a trough over the Bering and a ridge over the Gulf.

Beginning on Thursday, a ridge of high pressure aloft will shift its axis northward across Southcentral and dominate the overall weather pattern as we head into the weekend. Expect fair and mild conditions under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies over the interior valleys with areas of low stratus and patchy fog expanding across the entire northern Gulf coastal areas through Saturday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday) .

A cloudy, wet, cool, and windy pattern is expected to continue through Saturday for much of Southwest Alaska. First, a front currently associated with a low pressure system over Eastern Russia will continue to slowly move eastward over the next two days. As a result, expect steady rain to continue to increase across the Kuskokwim Delta through the remainder of the afternoon into tonight. Windy conditions with gusts upwards of 40 mph are also expected to continue for the Kuskokwim Delta through Thursday morning. A general 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected for the Kuskokwim Delta through Friday. Some of the moisture from the front will make it over the Kuskokwim/Kilbuck Mountains overnight bringing rain to the interior areas of Southwest for Thursday and Friday. However, the steadiest rain is expected to remain closest to the mountains and across the Middle Kuskokwim Valley with a more showery regime across Bristol Bay, especially the southeastern most areas. Also, due to the persistent southerly flow continuing through Thursday morning, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM Thursday morning for water rise of 1 to 2 feet above the highest astronomical tide.

As the next system approaches the area from the Bering Sea, southerly winds will begin to increase once again Friday afternoon/evening and continue through Saturday. Due to the prolonged southerly flow expected once again (though not as strong as this last system) the antecedent conditions are already in place for the potential for more high surf and possibly erosion. Also, expect an increase in rainfall across the area, especially the Kuskokwim Delta for Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Winds will also increase across the Bethel area once again bringing a return to breezy conditions for Saturday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday afternoon) .

A front associated with an East Russia low will continue to slowly advance eastward through tonight. This will continue to bring showers to the Pribilof Islands while it virtually stalls over St. George Island for Friday. St. Paul Island can expect conditions to somewhat improve for Thursday, though, expect the usual low stratus and areas of fog to be a concern. For the Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPen, due to the persistent southerly flow over the next 3 days, expect upslope flow to keep rain in the forecast - especially along the Pacific coast. Elsewhere across the western Bering and Western Aleutian Islands, expect mainly quiet conditions through Thursday night with areas of fog and some low stratus.

The next system moves into the western Bering and Western Aleutians Thursday night/early Friday bringing another round of small craft winds as well as unsettled weather in the form of rain to much of the area. This system traverses across the Bering while strengthening reaching the Pribilof Islands Friday night. Therefore, expect periods of rain Friday night through Saturday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday).

A series of lows will transit the Aleutians and Bering Sea. At the moment it looks like winds will top out at small craft advisory level. However, there could be some small areas of gale force winds, especially on Sunday as a low deepens over the south-central Bering Sea.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday).

A longwave trough digs into the Western Bering starting Sunday. A moderate low develops in the left exit region of the jet, where it crosses the Western Aleutians into the Bering through Monday. As the low becomes stacked and retrogrades towards Kamchatka on Tuesday, its front stalls across the Central Bering.

There is fairly good model agreement between the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian on the development and general position of both the longwave trough and Bering low. Models remain consistent until Tuesday, when they begin to diverge more strongly on the strength and position of the low.

While rain and stronger winds are expected with the passage of the front in the Bering, conditions are expected to stay mostly dry in Southcentral Alaska due to lingering high pressure in the Gulf. Forecast confidence drops in the Tue/Wed time period, as models struggle with how long the upper ridge will hold on. In all likelihood, the ridge will at least weaken, leading to an increase in clouds and chance of rain as we head through the week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High Surf Advisory 155. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BL SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MF SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . KZ/KC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK	27 mi	59 min	SW 16 G 18	53°F	51°F	3 ft	1024.4 hPa (+0.5)	48°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK	46 mi	49 min	SW 2.9 G 6	53°F	51°F		1025.7 hPa (+0.4)
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK	80 mi	49 min	NE 1.9 G 1.9	55°F	51°F		1024.3 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Alitak, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

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Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Uyak, Uyak Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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