Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 090307 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 707 PM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Today has a complex weather pattern southern Alaska with an elongated upper level low stretching from the Southwest Mainland through the northern Gulf of Alaska. A secondary upper low center over northern Cook Inlet enhanced the precipitation north of a front that stretched from it into the northern Gulf and formed a deformation band over the Susitna Valley through the northern Gulf.

A jet streak is running from the Eastern Bering Sea into the Western Gulf today which is interacting with the upper level low in at the upper left exit region of the jet streak. The result is a developing surface low in the northern Gulf which will head south and strengthen over the next day.

The Copper River Basin is northeast of the deformation band with another upper level low just east of it in the Yukon Territory. This has helped to clear out skies there leading to increased instability aloft this afternoon and evening. At this time, it looks like the convection today will be limited to terrain with lower elevations of the Copper river Basin remaining out of the showers.

The Bering Sea is under a surface high pressure in the southern and western part with northwest flow over the northern and eastern regions. This is keeping marine stratus over the Bering and into parts of Southwest Alaska and also keeping the atmosphere stable today over Southwest Mainland Alaska.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good synoptic agreement into the weekend. The main parameter we are watching is the convective instability over Southern Alaska Thursday through Saturday. The NAM and GFS are both with increasing the areas and amounts of instability over the region with the area of greatest instability propagating westward each day.

AVIATION. PANC . Rain should taper off throughout the evening and then somewhat drier air will move in from the northeast through the night. This should keep the ceilings in the 3500 to 4500 ft range through the night before improving by noon Thursday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2 Wednesday and Thursday) .

The main driver of our weather over the southern mainland is the surface and upper level low now over the Kenai Peninsula that is dropping south into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. As this low moves south, drier air moves in behind it overnight. However, moisture from a low over the southern Yukon Territory will move west over south central Alaska Thursday. The upper level low from the southern Yukon Territory will move west and with it increasing instability will lead to increased thunderstorm potential across the Copper River Basin to the Susitna Valley and south over the Kenai Peninsula for Thursday afternoon and evening. Another upper level trough will move in from the north on Friday once again increasing the chances of thunderstorms across south central Alaska.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Northwesterly flow will prevail this evening through tomorrow morning continuing the cooler temperatures and stable air mass across the region. Rain and showers will continue through this time. Tomorrow afternoon, the flow will shift to northeasterly which will change the conditions we are seeing today to warmer and more unstable. While there is limited confidence in the available moisture across the region, confidence is increasing that thunderstorm activity will occur with chances most likely over the western Alaska Range despite this. Northerly flow will then overtake the area on Friday, continuing warming and further decreasing stability. This will produce greater chances for thunderstorm potential across the southwest, from west of the Alaska Range into the lower Kuskokwim Valley and south towards Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula. Besides this, marine stratus and fog will continue to be a forecast challenge through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

High pressure will continue to persist through the forecast period for the Bering and eastern Aleutian Chain. The central and western portions of the Aleutian Chain will see rain showers throughout this time as a front stalls over the area, blocked by the high pressure over the Bering. Winds will remain below gale force with no high seas expected, however, marine stratus and fog will continue to be a forecast challenge.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday).

The ridge building over the Gulf by Saturday will stay relatively out of the south across the region through the end of the weekend. Models are then struggling on Monday morning whether a surface low will develop over the southern Gulf. For now, we have thrown out the strongest low development, but winds will likely shift to a more easterly direction on Monday across the Gulf. Looking to the west, winds over the western and central Aleutians will weaken by Sunday afternoon as high pressure persists over the Bering.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday).

A long-wave trough will keep cloudy conditions and rain showers in the forecast through the end of the weekend across mainland Alaska. Once this wave moves out of the region, models are having difficulties in the upper level pattern whether or not a ridge will build in over southern mainland next week. Most solutions show precipitation tapering off by Monday, with lingering showers across the region. However, the GFS is the outlier trying to bring a front across the AKPEN and into Southwest Alaska starting on Monday. Thus, kept a chance of rain in the forecast through the middle of next week. Temperatures are expected to remain average for this time of year through Wednesday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SA SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CK MARINE/LONG TERM . AH

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK	27 mi	179 min	SSW 9.7 G 12	53°F	52°F	4 ft	1011.4 hPa	50°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK	46 mi	55 min	NW 11 G 17	51°F	50°F		1011.7 hPa
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK	80 mi	55 min	WNW 7 G 17	58°F	51°F		1010 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Uyak, Uyak Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon

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