Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larsen Bay, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 160132 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 432 PM AKST Fri Jan 15 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The long-wave trough remains firmly entrenched over Alaska and the North Pacific, with a zonal jet stream centered way down around 35N latitude. A persistent downstream ridge sits over the far east Pacific and into the western CONUS, leading to a northward buckle in the jet. Thus, the primary storm track is west to east across the North Pacific, then curving northward into the Gulf and toward the southern mainland of Alaska. This has been and will continue to be the pattern in place through at least early next week.

Conditions are relatively quiet across the Alaska region today. A broad short-wave trough with multiple embedded weak vorticity maxima is lifting northward across Southcentral, with areas of light snow spreading inland. It took a long time to saturate low level airmass in the Anchorage area, but light snow started to fall across the area by late morning. Still, snow is very light in nature and expect little to no accumulation. Meanwhile, with more unstable air over the Gulf, showers continue to stream onshore along the north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound. Precipitation type is mostly snow with the exception of the immediate coastline where it is still warm enough for rain.

Out west, a short-wave trough over the central Bering is bringing snow showers and gusty winds to the Pribilof Islands southward to the central Aleutians (around Atka). Otherwise, dry conditions prevail under short-wave ridging along the remainder of the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska. Areas of low clouds and fog have formed over the eastern Bering Sea and some of this is pushing onshore in the Bristol Bay region.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in overall good agreement with the next large storm system moving up from the north Pacific into the Gulf and along the Alaska Peninsula. It does look favorable for multiple low centers as short-waves rotate around the very large cyclonic circulation. Models do vary with the details of these centers. In particular, the GFS shows a stronger low backing westward across the Bristol Bay and into the eastern Bering Saturday night and Sunday. If this were to verify, it would lead to stronger northerly flow across the eastern Bering and southern Alaska Peninsula and lower visibilities in snow and blowing snow. However, this solution is an outlier at this point so will stick with the other models which show a weaker farther east low and overall lighter wind field.

Out west, models are in excellent agreement and show good run-to- run consistency with frontal system crossing the Aleutian Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Looking to early next week, models are all keying in on amplification of the upper level flow and a powerful low tracking into the Gulf. There certainly is some spread in solutions with timing and track, but confidence is enough to begin to reflect significant weather in the forecast and start to message specific impacts to key partners/decision-makers.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this evening. With skies clearing behind the short-wave pushing onshore, will need to keep an eye out for fog formation. However, as the next Pacific storm enters the Gulf tonight, expect northerly surface winds to develop and strengthen through Saturday morning. This, if any fog did form in the vicinity it should be patchy and short-lived.

As the northerly flow strengthens at the surface, mountain-top southeasterly winds will increase across the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Thus, expect low level wind shear to develop overnight. As the storm nears, cross-mountain flow will become more easterly and will bend sharply down Cook Inlet. As a result, wind shear may push above 2000 feet during the day Saturday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Monday) .

The upper level trough that brought some light snow to Southcentral today continues to lift north with a weak upper level ridge building in. As a result, most of the Kenai Peninsula has cleared out and has been observing a decent amount of sunshine. There is some question as to how far north this clearing will get tonight making tonight's low temperature forecast a bit tricky. If it can stay clear with light winds, temperatures will drop a decent amount. There is some low stratus hanging around out over Cook Inlet as of this writing that if this can congeal may move into Anchorage, Kenai, and the Matanuska Valley overnight which would keep temperatures up instead of dropping.

The next frontal system can be seen on visible satellite imagery this afternoon over the North Pacific. This system will continue moving northward reaching Kodiak around midnight tonight. Expect periods of rain and gusty winds up to 50 mph out of the northeast accompanying the front as it passes through. This front will continue to move northward bringing storm force winds to the central Gulf and along the Gulf Coast waters. This front will also bring another round of rain and snow to the higher elevations around Prince William Sound. Areas closer to sea level can expect more rain with some snow but the higher elevations will be where the heavier snowfall amounts will be as that will be where it stays cold enough to keep it mostly snow. Turnagain Pass is one of the areas that looks to remain cold enough again this time around for mostly snow with up to 6 inches through the Pass. Higher elevations around the Pass may see upwards of a foot or more. Seward will have some snow to start but warmer air is expected to move in Saturday afternoon changing any snow to all rain. Areas around Anchorage, Kenai Peninsula, and the Matanuska Valley are expected to remain dry through at least Saturday evening before chances of precipitation increase some. Any precipitation will be light and minor.

With deep southerly flow continuing Saturday night into Sunday expect precipitation to continue against the windward slopes of the mountains as upslope flow continues.

Attention will then turn to the next very potent system that is expected to impact the region Sunday night through Monday night time frame. During this period, there is the potential for high winds through Portage Valley and Turnagain Arm, high winds over the marine areas along the north Gulf Coast, heavy snowfall for Turnagain Pass, Alyeska, and Thompson Pass. Due to the heavy snowfall possible and high winds along with an already very deep snowpack, the potential is there for avalanches as more snow falls on the already deep snowpack. Due to this, multiple products are possible for this event as this has the potential to be very impactful across Southcentral. Stay tuned.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday Afternoon through Monday) .

Relatively calm today across Southwest Alaska as the upper level trough pushes north and east of the area. A brief period of onshore flow tonight will promote the formation of low clouds and patchy fog, best chances of fog will be across the Kuskokwim Delta tonight. The fog will clear out by midday tomorrow as stronger winds kick in ahead of next low pressure system. Otherwise a few light snow flurries possible tonight underneath low clouds but no accumulations expected. Our attention then turns to a stronger low pressure system approaching the AKPEN on Saturday this will bring gusty winds to the Southwest and increasing chances of snow. This low will cross into Bristol Bay Saturday evening and slowly track into Southwest Alaska Sunday producing snow across the area with a couple of inches possible. This low will weaken and move across the Kuskokwim Delta on Monday with continued light snow ending later on Monday with another inch or two of snow possible.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday Afternoon through Monday) .

Broad upper level troughing continues to dominate the Bering Sea and Aleutians. The remnants of the upper low across Southwest Alaska is moving across the northern Bering producing light snow. Otherwise weak shortwaves are moving across the area with snow showers and low level northerly flow dominating the area tonight and tomorrow. Saturday into Sunday the low moving into Bristol Bay will bring snow and blowing snow to parts of zones 181 and 185 from Dutch Harbor, Cold Bay up towards the AKPEN. The upper forcing will not be strong enough to warrant a blowing snow advisory but several inches of snow expected, however less than advisory criteria. Sunday a gale force front will move into the Western Aleutians and move east into the central and eastern Aleutians and up towards the Pribilofs on Monday. This front will bring light snow and brief periods of blowing snow.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Monday through Wednesday.

Gulf of Alaska: A strong North Pacific low moves over Kodiak Island into the Alaska Peninsula on Monday with an estimated intensity of 970 mb. Model tracks and development vary somewhat, but forecast confidence is good. Widespread high end gale force winds and storm force winds move northward over the Gulf. Monday night the surface low will move over the Kenai Peninsula although the cyclonic flow will persisted over the Gulf Of Alaska until Tuesday. Brief ridging will follow in the wake of the low.

Aleutians/Bering: A strong Kamchatka low and front moves east through Tuesday. Widespread high end gale force winds anticipated with this system as the front moves to the Central Aleutians and across the Bering. Enhanced seas expected with this system as wave heights are forecast to reach 19 feet for the Bering side, and the Pacific side. A new low will develop in the NW Pacific on Monday and will stay south of the chain.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7): Monday through Thursday .

A progressive pattern is on tap for this forecast period. The longwave trough extends from NE Russia to Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf Of Alaska. There are numerous embedded shortwaves. Expect a series of lows for the Bering, North Pacific and Gulf Of Alaska. Monday there will be surface low near Kodiak and a second low northeast of Attu Island. The jet stream is highly amplified. There is a jet core south of Kodiak with a magnitude of 155 knots and a second jet core with a magnitude of 170 knots south of Amchitka/Adak. Sensible weather-wise, expect snow in portions of southcentral Alaska. The Chugach Mountains, Kenai Mountains and Cordova Mountains will receive 2+ feet of new snow in a 24 hr window. As this low complex moves north additional snow accumulations anticipated. Right now the snow level is hovering between 800-1500 feet above sea level. Also on Tuesday the front out west will be near Cold Bay. Past Wednesday, divergence has emerged in the models but they are all showing a continuation of the wet pattern.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storms 119 120 130 13. Gales 132 138 139 140 150 155 165 170-176 180 352 413 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SEB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MV SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . RC MARINE/LONG TERM . PS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK	27 mi	76 min	ENE 29 G 33	40°F	42°F	4 ft	992.5 hPa (-1.6)	39°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK	46 mi	48 min	ENE 8 G 27	38°F	38°F		987.9 hPa
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK	80 mi	54 min	ENE 9.9 G 19	38°F	40°F		994.6 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKH

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Tide / Current Tables for Larsen Bay, Uyak Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Uyak, Uyak Bay, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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