Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Game Creek, AK

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:35PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 3:33 PM AKST (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 1019 Am Akst Wed Mar 3 2021
Today..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers and isolated Thunderstorms early in the morning.
Tonight..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
Sat..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Game Creek, AK
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location: 57.68, -135.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 032318 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 218 PM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

SHORT TERM. Satellite imagery this afternoon showing a low in the SW AK Gulf which is expected to remain nearly stationary while filling through early Thursday. Associated front is moving north with small craft winds over the gulf and enhanced precip bands along the coast mountains, especially over the southern panhandle, but otherwise a fair number of breaks between showers. 850mb temps over the panhandle low enough for temps tonight in the mid 20s to mid 30s allowing a mix of precip for central and southern locations and mainly snow to the north. Snow accumulations of an inch or two expected with higher amounts along orographically enhanced locations.

As this low fills another low moves up from the N Pacific and tracks into the SE Gulf. What is currently expected is this gale force low to reach the Haida Gwaii coast by Thursday afternoon then continue a northerly track while weakening, with low center near Cross Sound by Friday afternoon. With this track will have offshore flow and a dry slot for the northern panhandle Thursday into early Friday before the frontal bands push in. Southern locations get the brunt of precip initially, and with the track and warmer air moving in, precip will fall as rain. Increasing northerly winds resulting as the low moves in as gradient tightens between it and high pressure over the Yukon. The persistent question is where will this low go and how deep will it get. At this time the GFS was the outlier depicting a deeper low which stayed intact well into Saturday while had better agreement between NAM/Canadian/ECMWF with a slightly faster northerly track but more importantly fills the low into an open wave trough near Cross sound by Friday afternoon. Ensembles were showing similar trend and tracks. Due to the agreement went with a blend of NAM/Canadian which results in winds weakening and precip diminishing sooner than GFS. Lower confidence with the short range forecast due to this model spread.

LONG TERM. /Friday through Wednesday night/ . The message today remains mostly the same as yesterday, as the active pattern continues through the beginning of long term with a possibility of a precip break Sunday into Monday. Temperatures do not appear to warm or cool substantially during the period and will hang close enough to freezing to make snow a consideration in at least some portion of the forecast area with each passing disturbance.

The long term begins with a weakening low moving north along the outer coast. This low is expected weaken through the day giving way to onshore southerly flow in between a high over BC and a low in the western gulf. This next low will get pulled southeast through the gulf and into the Oregon Coast by a strong southern branch of the polar jet. With the low tracking SE of the area, expect a northerly gradient to set up during the latter half of the weekend and into Monday. Guidance has this pattern continuing into next week as upper level ridging builds over the Aleutians and the jet stream pulls any systems in the gulf well to the south and east of the region.

In terms of sensible weather . the period begins with precipitation moving south to north across the Panhandle as the weakening low moves up the coast. A strong southerly push ahead of the low will bring warmer air northward keeping P-type mainly rain on Friday. The low dissipates Friday night leading to onshore flow and showers into Saturday. The next system in the gulf that gets pulled S and E of the region will remain far enough offshore to keep the heaviest precipitation over the gulf. However, still expect shower activity to persist across the southern half of the Panhandle.

The welcomed drying trend begins Saturday evening as a northerly gradient sets up across the region with relatively high pressure to the north and the low to the south. Drying will take place from north to south Saturday night with the far southern Panhandle keeping at least a slight chance for showers into Sunday. At the same time, northerly outflow will increase, especially across the Northern Inner Channels and out of interior passes in the NE gulf coast. Bumped up winds to small craft levels in Lynn Canal and increased winds in typical outflow areas. Kept high temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s through this time frame, despite northerly flow. It is that time of year again where days are rapidly increasing, the sun angle is higher, and the interior of Canada is beginning to moderate some. Downsloping events in March have the potential to bring more moderate temperatures to SE AK; compared to frigid arctic outbreaks in the middle of the winter. With model 925mb temps in BC and the Yukon around -5C to -10C, downsloping would warm surface temps up into at least the low 40s across portions of SE AK.

Sunday and Monday still look to be the best for a break from the active weather but confidence is lower for the extended period. Models show another front approaching the coast by Tuesday morning; however there is low confidence regarding the exact track of this system. A track further offshore, as the latest GFS and ECMWF show, would mean continued dry weather for the Panhandle. Lowered POP for mid next week to slight chance to chance wording, but did not take it out completely just yet. A blend of GFS and ECMWF were used for the early part of the long term, with NBM and WPC for the latter part. Overall confidence is above average through the period.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoonah - Hoonah Seaplane Base, AK33 mi38 minE 95.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist35°F32°F89%994.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAOH

Wind History from AOH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3E6E4NE6CalmCalmE5E3SE4CalmE3E5E10E6SE5E5E4E5E7NE12
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1 day agoE8E8E9NE9NE6E9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SE10Calm
2 days ago--E8NE5NE6E5NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmE3--CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmN33W9NW3W3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Povorotni Island, Pogibshi Point, Peril Strait, Alaska
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Povorotni Island
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Wed -- 03:24 AM AKST     17.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:32 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:53 AM AKST     -1.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:55 PM AKST     14.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:39 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:02 PM AKST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.511.114.816.816.714.510.96.52.4-0.4-1.20.23.37.31113.614.413.410.97.64.21.60.61.6

Tide / Current Tables for Sergius Narrows, Peril Strait, Alaska Current
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Sergius Narrows
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Wed -- 01:27 AM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:26 AM AKST     -6.63 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:49 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM AKST     0.39 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:33 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:43 AM AKST     7.05 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:56 PM AKST     -0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:50 PM AKST     -6.30 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:40 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:09 PM AKST     0.27 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:05 PM AKST     6.81 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.53.1-3.1-5.4-6.5-6.4-5.3-3.625.16.776.14.3-0.8-4.2-5.9-6.3-5.6-4-1.44.166.8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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