Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Game Creek, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:49PM Thursday August 13, 2020 6:35 PM AKDT (02:35 UTC) Moonrise 11:11PMMoonset 4:18PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 555 Pm Akdt Thu Aug 13 2020 Updated
Rest of tonight..Light winds becoming E wind 15 kt late. Seas building to 3 ft late.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Sat..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Sat night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Game Creek, AK
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location: 57.68, -135.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 132252 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 252 PM AKDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SHORT TERM. /Thursday evening through Saturday evening/ Yet another wet weekend is in the forecast for Southeast Alaska. An upper low currently over the far northern gulf will sag southward over the next 24 hours while merging with another low from the west. This upper trough will continue to dig in the gulf through early next week. As the trough digs, upper level flow on the E side of the system, initially W to E oriented, will become S to N oriented by Saturday night pumping in ample moisture from the tropics. At the surface, a low in the western gulf will head towards the east central gulf by Friday pushing a front northward through the Panhandle Friday night. Through the weekend, the complex low will have multiple waves rotating around it bringing periods of rain to much of the Panhandle. With a large fetch of moisture flowing in from the south and IVT values approaching 500 kg/m/s, heavy rainfall is expected at times in the far southern Panhandle and Misty Fjords region. QPF from Friday morning through late Saturday night is showing a large area of 2 to 4 inches from Petersburg/Wrangell to Hyder to POW Island. Expect the heaviest rainfall to be over Misty Fjords and around Ketchikan this weekend.

Winds may also be impactful as SCA conditions are expected to develop. Ahead of the front pushing northward on Friday, expect SCA conditions to develop out of Cross Sound and into portions of zone 43 and the central gulf. As each wave rotates around the parent low and towards the Panhandle, winds are expected to increase through the inner channels. Currently expecting 15 to 20 kt southerlies to develop in the Central Inner Channels Saturday as the gradient tightens with the passage of the first wave. With the placement of the low in the central gulf, a northerly gradient is expected to set up in Lynn Canal this weekend with winds picking up to 15 to 20 kt Friday and through the weekend as waves pass by. A tight pressure gradient will also lead to SCA conditions developing in the Dixon Entrance and Clarence Strait Saturday into Sunday.

The main forecast challenge today was determining how fast precip will move northward on Friday through the Panhandle. North of the front, deep offshore flow up to 700 mb should keep many areas along and north of Icy Strait dry through Friday morning. Guidance today has sped up the arrival of rainfall by a few hours bringing it into Juneau by the early afternoon hours. There were still discrepancies in the models as the 12z Euro wanted to bring in precip the much faster than the 12z GFS while the 12z NAM holds off precip until the evening. Went with the GFS, the middle solution, bringing in a chance POPs to Juneau and Icy Strait around noon. Also deviated from guidance across Upper Lynn Canal and Yakutat, holding off the onset of precipitation until Saturday due to downsloping NE winds possibly drying out the low and mid levels. Added periods of rain wording to the forecast as well for the weekend. Confidence is lower regarding timing and placement of each wave moving northward; however periods of rain gets the message across very well despite not having all the details of each wave. Overall confidence in the forecast and the heavy rain is average.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through next Wednesday/ . The extended forecast is dominated by a low pressure system over the south- central gulf through the weekend. This system will keep periods of rain or showers in the forecast most days, but with greatest amounts primarily over the southern half of the region.

An E-W jet will become sharply amplified by Saturday as a trough digs into the western gulf and down into the Pacific. The upper level trough becomes a cut-off low by Sunday with winds being out of the due north on the western side of the gulf and due south on the eastern side, pointed at the panhandle. This will continually draw up tropical moisture through the weekend at all levels.

Models continue to have some run-to-run consistency issues with the surface low placement since the low has multiple waves that are rotating about the larger parent low in a Fujiwara manner. The changing low placement and passing pressure troughs leads to some uncertainty in the wind forecast. If the low center is further north, then winds through the inside waters will be primarily out of the SE with strongest winds through E-W oriented channels. When the low center is over the southern gulf, and ahead of some frontal troughs, winds through the northern inside waters will turn out of the north. How deep the low ends up being will also determine wind speed.

Frontal bands will continue to pass over the area through Sunday in line with the jet. Some periodic gusty winds are also likely with the frontal bands. The low weakens Monday night into Tuesday, but quickly becomes absorbed by another low moving in from the west, which likely means we will not see much of a break between systems through next week.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022.



CM/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK 26 mi24 min ESE 1.9 G 6 61°F 1015.1 hPa50°F
STXA2 42 mi22 min SW 4.1 G 7 58°F 1016.8 hPa48°F
ITKA2 47 mi48 min 58°F 56°F1017.1 hPa
SHXA2 47 mi22 min W 4.1 G 6 57°F 1016.9 hPa47°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 49 mi48 min 57°F 54°F1017.9 hPa
RIXA2 49 mi22 min N 6 G 7 56°F 1014.4 hPa50°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 54 mi70 min SW 2.9 G 7 57°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoonah - Hoonah Seaplane Base, AK33 mi1.7 hrsE 710.00 miOvercast57°F51°F81%1017.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAOH

Wind History from AOH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmE4E4CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm--CalmCalmCalm--CalmE6------E7
1 day ago--W4W3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm------Calm--3Calm--W3W4--SE4W4
2 days agoSW653N4--CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm--CalmCalm----CalmW4W3CalmW3W4W8

Tide / Current Tables for Povorotni Island, Pogibshi Point, Peril Strait, Alaska
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Povorotni Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:11 AM AKDT     3.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:24 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:21 AM AKDT     9.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:00 PM AKDT     6.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:16 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:06 PM AKDT     12.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.95.13.83.23.54.567.58.69.29.18.67.97.16.46.16.57.5910.511.612.111.810.7

Tide / Current Tables for Sergius Narrows, Peril Strait, Alaska Current
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Sergius Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:57 AM AKDT     0.06 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:24 AM AKDT     5.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM AKDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:32 AM AKDT     -4.18 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:26 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:48 PM AKDT     4.92 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:16 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:19 PM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:00 PM AKDT     -4.60 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.40.83.854.93.931.4-2.7-4-4.1-3.3-2.6-1.72.74.54.94.23.11.7-2.4-4-4.6-4.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.