Sunrise 4:41 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM Moonrise 3:38 AM   Moonset 10:06 PM

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PKZ032 Northern Chatham Strait- 410 Am Akdt Wed May 8 2024
.small craft advisory through this afternoon - .
Today - S wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.Tonight - S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain.Thu - S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.Thu night - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.Fri - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sat - S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sun - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 081345 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 545 AM AKDT Wed May 8 2024

SHORT TERM
Gale force front pushed its way into the panhandle overnight bringing enhanced winds to the outer coast and some locally heavy rain to parts of the southern panhandle with Ketchikan airport reporting 0.67 inches of rain over a 3 hour period. Overall rainfall should diminish with a transition to post frontal showers through the day Wednesday before the next system arrive tonight into Thursday morning. This next system is expected to have less wind impacts, but be more of a rainmaker.

While winds across the inner channels should begin to slacken from south to north throughout the day Wednesday before picking back up again, though not as strong, with the next system Wednesday night. No adjustments made to the marine forecast for this period with winds still expected to only reach around 30 kt across the gulf aside from a potential barrier jet developing briefly near the Fairweather grounds early Thursday morning. Rainfall will pick up in intensity over the northern half of the panhandle Wednesday night based upon Integrated Vapor Transport Forecasts with values between 500 to 700 kg/ms. While some snow mixing is possible at higher elevation highway such as White Pass overnight during the heaviest precipitation, accumulation will likely be minimal or short lived.

LONG TERM
For the start of the long term period, we will expect to see very wet weather across the northern and central panhandle.
Areas from Sitka northward to the Northeast Gulf coast near Glacier Bay are expected to see the heaviest precipitation from this event. Current rainfall estimates with this system have 1 to 2 inches of rain falling during this event. While this amount of rain is a lot for this time period and could break daily precipitation records, no major impacts are expected with the drier conditions we have had as well as rivers starting at lower flows. The southern panhandle will get in on some of the rain as the main band shifts to the south Thursday night into Friday morning. But amounts across the south are expected to remain lower than across the northern panhandle. After this system moves through, we will see a brief break across the panhandle as high pressure moves across the gulf for Friday and Saturday. This break will be short though as the next system will be pushing through the gulf and into the panhandle starting Saturday evening into Sunday morning. By the time we get to the start of next week, the active weather looks to continue with onshore flow remaining in place for SE AK.

AVIATION
Front moving through the panhandle Wednesday morning.
Ceilings a mixed bag with roughly half locations reporting 1200 to 2500 feet and about half 3000 to 4500 feet. Some locations have reduced visibility due to the rain but primarily above 3 miles.
With the front pushing through early this morning gusty winds in place over some inner channels, so local winds shear for some TAF sites / especially the southern ones / and maybe turbulence near terrain to impact flights.

MARINE
Highest winds and seas from overnight Tuesday and should be starting to diminish after midnight across the gulf and after 3 am for the inner channels. Strong W flow to 30 kt will be felt across the gulf on Wed in the wake of this system. A second system moving into the area late Wed night into Thursday will bring more small craft to near gale conditions for the gulf waters. The inner channels will not be as affected by this second system, but some S winds to 20 kt are still possible especially in the northern inner channels Thursday.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032>036-053-641>644- 651-652-661>664-671.

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Freshwater Bay
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Wed -- 01:22 AM AKDT     17.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:37 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:59 AM AKDT     -4.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:14 PM AKDT     15.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM AKDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:05 PM AKDT     Moonset
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