Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 10:03 PM Moonrise 2:36 AM   Moonset 7:12 AM

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PKZ414 Bering Sea Offshore East Of 171w- 248 Pm Akdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Tonight - N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.Mon - N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Mon night - NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tue - E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tue night - E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.Wed through Fri - SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

FXAK68 PAFC 290012 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 412 PM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

An upper level ridge continues to promote sunny skies and a lack of active weather for Southcentral. The strength of this ridge has grown since yesterday, clearing out Kodiak Island as well. The warmest temperatures so far this season are expected across Southcentral today due to the clear skies, limited residual snowpack in the lower elevations, and modest low-level thermal ridging in place. While the ridge is still building this weekend, cooler air remains aloft, and along with the clear skies, ample surface heating would be conducive to localized convective showers around Southcentral. However, given the strength of the ridge, any showers produced this way would likely be isolated and short- lived. Additionally, given the surface heating, a return of the summer seabreeze is expected this weekend, predominantly Sunday, in marine communities such as Seward, Valdez, and Whittier.

At time of writing, the Copper River Basin is seeing some showers pop up along the northern edge of the area, as well as on the far Eastern side of the Wrangell Mountains. Models have been over- estimating the breadth of these showers, advertising higher activity over much of the areas of elevation. In reality, much of the surface heating in these areas needed for convective activity is instead put into heating/melting the still decaying snowpack.
Therefore, isolated showers are expected to pop up along portions of the Copper River Basin and along the mountain-side slopes, however are not expected to be widespread nor long-lasting systems. By Monday, will also see a general increase in cloudiness across Southcentral as the weak upper level ridge begins to breaks down. Southerly flow up Cook Inlet will work to keep us slightly cooler than currently, and steadily fill the skies.

-CL

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

Ridging centered over Southwest this evening will breakdown and push east as an upper level low currently over the Pribilofs slides south over the Alaska Peninsula through tomorrow afternoon.
This will induce more cloudcover and onshore flow along the coast, leading to cooler temperatures for much of the region.
Interior areas will remain warmer, but will still have a general cool down as cloudcover increases. For Tuesday and Wednesday, week upper level shortwaves will pivot north around the trough, generating some isolated to scattered showers near the foothills where snowpack no longer exists. Otherwise, temperatures near average are expected with increasing cloudcover through Wednesday.

Over the Bering, a developing low in the north Pacific will move north near Shemya by Monday afternoon, sending a gale force front into the western Aleutians and Adak. The main forecast change is that this front is slower to move east and the low stalls out longer near Shemya due to stronger ridging over the central Bering. As the front slides east around the base of the trough, an elongated low will develop along the triple point reaching the eastern Aleutians on Tuesday and the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday.
Winds will be marginal by this time.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Low pressure moves into the western Bering Sea on Thursday, its front extends over the Aleutians by Wednesday. Multiple low centers track through the Gulf of Alaska through late week and the weekend. High pressure may linger across inland portions of Southcentral Alaska through the end of this week before the pattern shifts this weekend with a front moving onshore. Areas along the north Gulf coast, Prince William Sound and Kodiak Island will likely see periods of rain, however, there is still some uncertainty how far inland the precipitation will track.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. A weak Turnagain Arm jet will develop this evening into the overnight hours as surface ridging sets up along the north Gulf coast. The strongest winds should remain south of the terminal, with only a light (less than 10 kt)
south to southeast wind moving into the terminal around or shortly after 06Z.

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