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PKZ414 Bering Sea Offshore East Of 171w- 308 Pm Akdt Fri Apr 26 2024
Tonight - NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.Sat - NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.Sat night - N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.Sun and Sun night - N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.Mon - N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tue - SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.Wed - S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

PKZ400
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 270058 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 458 PM AKDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Few changes were made to the forecast. Satellite imagery shows a low south of the Alaska Peninsula, with its front extending across the Kodiak Island area. The precipitation forecast remains largely the same, with about an additional 0.75-1 inch for Eastern Kodiak Island and up to another 0.5 inches of precipitation for Western Kodiak Island.

With the low pivoting southwards from this evening through tomorrow morning, expect clearing skies and light winds in its wake, with precipitation tapering off for Kodiak Island through tomorrow. Clear skies and abundant daytime heating could lead to afternoon/evening convective showers along mountain slopes, especially as weak shortwaves move through the area. Showers look to be limited to interior Copper River Basin tomorrow afternoon, but they could become a bit more widespread by Sunday afternoon as a lobe of vorticity dives southwards from the Alaska Interior.
Westerly steering flow aloft of about 10-20 kt would favor showers developing along west-facing mountain slopes. The location and intensity of these showers will be the biggest forecast question as we head into early next week. Aside from that, the weather looks to be fairly quiet, providing a great opportunity to get out and enjoy the sunshine this weekend.

-KC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Low pressure over the Bering has since moved into the western Gulf of Alaska, and with it calmer conditions are gradually setting in across the region. Diminished winds and minimal precipitation are forecast from the Aleutians into Southwest Alaska both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s. The one question mark entails cloud cover as the presence of low pressure in the western Gulf of Alaska could send moisture and clouds into Greater Bristol Bay and also the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley. In similar fashion northerly flow through the Bering may bring scattered clouds into the Aleutians. The next weather system moves into the Western Aleutians on Monday in the form of a broad front. Increasing rain showers and gusty conditions associated with the front are anticipated early next week. Interestingly enough, models are showing colder temperatures move in behind the front, which may support initial rain showers transitioning to a mix of rain and snow for the Western Aleutians by Monday night.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Mon through Thu)...

An upper level trough will be situated over the southern Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday morning, crossing into the southwestern Gulf of Alaska, and a new upper level trough entering the western Bering Sea behind it. A building ridge is expected to remain situated over Southcentral Alaska. Through Tuesday, the ridge will likely extend from Southcentral into Southwest Alaska following the departure of the AKPen trough, while the western Bering system pushes a front across the Aleutians, likely reaching Unalaska by late Tuesday. The front is expected to generally weaken as it approaches Southwest and the resident ridge, but the parental low pressure system behind the front will likely move over the Western and Central Aleutians through Wednesday.

By Wednesday afternoon, the ridge over southern Alaska may begin to weaken as the upper-level support shows signs of shifting out of the area. This may allow for influence from the Bering low to move into Southwest Alaska and even Southcentral Alaska as the system approaches by late Thursday. Gauging impacts from this low in Southwest and Southcentral is still precarious given the uncertainty regarding the ridge movement, as well as the location/progression of the low itself. Model agreement regarding the progression and potency of these systems is not good, leading to a general uncertainty regarding timing the several fronts and lows to enter the Bering and move through the area. However, given the prolonged shift towards warmer weather over the next week expected, impacts from this system will likely not be winter weather. Although the overall synoptic setup is in fair agreement for the extended period, the details could mean bigger differences in the QPF and wind fields across the Bering and Southwest Alaska.

-CL

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