St. George, AK Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. George, AK

April 14, 2024 7:07 PM AKDT (03:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 9:23 PM
Moonrise 7:46 AM   Moonset 3:19 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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PKZ414 Bering Sea Offshore East Of 171w- 303 Pm Akdt Sun Apr 14 2024

.gale warning through Monday night - .

Tonight - SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow.

Mon - S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow.

Mon night - SW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

Tue - SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

Tue night - N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

Wed through Fri - N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

PKZ400
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George, AK
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Area Discussion for - Anchorage, AK
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FXAK68 PAFC 150001 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 401 PM AKDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

The near-term forecast of sunny and benign weather remains on track through Monday evening. From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, however, major forecast updates have been made for the next storm moving in near Kodiak Island. For this storm, we're monitoring the potential for heavy precipitation/flood potential and strong winds for Kodiak Island.

Diving into the details...a high pressure ridge is currently moving in from the west, creating a beautifully sunny Sunday for all of Southcentral Alaska. Temperatures climb into the 40s this afternoon under abundant sunshine, leading to localized areas of sea breezes along the coast. Gusty gap winds through Whittier and Seward will linger through early Monday morning before shutting off as the ridge firmly establishes itself overhead.

Similarly pleasant weather is expected through most of Monday, but cloud cover and precipitation chances increase by evening as a shortwave over Western Alaska begins to displace our fair weather ridge. As the ridge moves eastward, southerly flow behind it will lead to light upslope precipitation along the Gulf coast of Kodiak Island, the Alaska Range, Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound.

From Tuesday through Wednesday, two lows merge south of the Alaska Peninsula and push a front northeastward into Southcentral. The biggest change since the previous forecast package has been to speed up the front's progression and greatly increase precipitation amounts for Kodiak Island. We have moderate confidence that the Gulf coast of Kodiak Island will see sustained winds to gale force and moderate to heavy precipitation from Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.

What's less certain is the total duration of precipitation for Kodiak Island. There is a chance that Kodiak Island could see sustained moderate to heavy precipitation through Friday, which could lead to flooding concerns. Ultimately, this will depend on the evolution of the low complex south of the Alaska Peninsula, and how embedded surface lows affect the orientation and track of the front. Given how impactful this front could be, please stay tuned as we continue to update the forecast.

-KC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA, AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

This afternoon, the eastern Bering Sea and Southwest mainland Alaska are under high pressure at the surface and aloft, while a fairly strong low is entering the southern Bering Sea near Adak.
The high pressure has kept precipitation out of the area, but large portions of southwest Alaska are under stratus clouds as a result of the subsidence underneath the ridge. These clouds are unlikely to break except for some areas in the Bristol Bay region through early this evening. After that, they should pack in again.

The low near Adak is not going to waste much time moving to the north as it is expected to be just west of Nunivak Island Monday afternoon and then up to the Bering Strait Monday night. The majority of impactful weather in the region will be associated with this low, and especially along the front as it moves over the Pribilof Islands late tonight and to the Kuskokwim Delta coast Monday. This front will bring strong winds across the Bering Sea region. One of the biggest forecast questions will be how much blowing snow develops for the Pribilof Islands tonight and the Kuskokwim Delta coast tomorrow. The winds in these area will be south-to-southeast which puts them in the warm advection sector of the low. In spite of this, the amount of cold air aloft should be sufficient to keep precipitation type mostly snow or all snow for these areas. The timing of the front tonight in the Pribilof Islands makes it more likely to get some blowing snow there, but there is also all open water near them which should keep temperatures just at freezing or a little above freezing all night. While precipitation will remain snow, it will likely limit the amount of blowing snow to the heaviest precipitation just before frontal passage and the limited visibilities may be more due to snow intensity and winds and not from resuspended snow since the snow will be wet and heavy. This heavy, wet snow will also visit Nunivak Island and then western coast line of the Kuskokwim Delta tomorrow afternoon. Precipitation should remain snow there as well, but blowing snow will be limited to the most intense time of snowfall due to temperatures being at or above freezing for most of the event.

After this low moves through, southwest Alaska and the eastern half of the Bering Sea will remain in an active weather pattern as a cold upper level trough digs southward into the central Bering Sea Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the same time, a low south of the Gulf of Alaska will track toward the Alaska Peninsula bringing in warm air and a lot of moisture.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

An amplified pattern will be in place on Thursday with a longwave trough stretching from western Alaska to south of the Eastern Aleutians. Anchored in place, through at least Thursday, will be a vertically stacked low to the south of the Alaska Peninsula.
Enhanced northerly flow over the Bering with below normal temperatures are forecast across the Bering into the Central Aleutians Thursday. Downstream of the trough, southeasterly flow will bring plentiful moisture into the western Gulf along with warmer temperatures. Kodiak Island, in particular, will be in the cross hairs of a potential atmospheric river. With an initial round of precipitation on Wednesday, renewed and heavier rainfall will be possible Thursday into Friday as the stacked low south of the AKPEN remains largely stationary. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the front and steady precipitation will make it. Portions of the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound could see a period of steady precipitation (primarily in the form of rain at sea level) mid to late week, or it could stay mostly dry if the front stalls to the south. Details to resolve over the coming days will be how far south and west the low moves while south of the AKPEN. The deterministic GFS continues to trend well west of ensemble guidance, which could change the location of the atmospheric river entirely by the middle of next week, and will certainly have implications on precipitation chances for Kodiak as well as the Gulf coast.

BL




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