Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 5:52AM||Sunset 10:17PM||Sunday August 9, 2020 12:26 PM AKDT (20:26 UTC)||Moonrise 10:07PM||Moonset 11:29AM||Illumination 67%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George, AKHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for -  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXAK68 PAFC 091300 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 AM AKDT Sun Aug 9 2020
ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.
There is a broad upper trough over much of the state of Alaska, the Bering and over NE Russia. There are several organized and weak lows embedded in the longwave trough. The most organized one being the low in the Gulf Of Alaska. There is a jet core pushing over Adak and a more potent jet core bisecting the Gulf Of Alaska and SE AK. "Water Vapor" satellite imagery shows distinct dry air intrusion over the southern Gulf Of Alaska to the North Pacific on the back side of the frontal boundary. Also noteworthy, smoke from the Siberian fires has moved into the Bering and is visible on satellite imagery.
For initialization purposes, compared several ASCAT (advanced scatterometer) passes to winds projected by the models and both the GFS and NAM did well pinging into the gales in portions of the Gulf Of Alaska. The global models and the NAM retain decent consensus wit the placement of the synoptic features the next 48 hours over the GOA, North Pacific and Bering.
AVIATION. PANC . Overnight the ceiling fell below 5000 ft at both PANC and PAMR. As of 11:53z the cig at PANC was at 5000 feet. The Kenai radar (PAHG) was active overnight with showers over portions of Cook Inlet and Turnagain Arm. Light rain will fall over the aerodrome this TAF period. The models are suggesting light winds for PANC until 00z Monday when westerly flow sets up.
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).
A strong low in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing gale-to-storm force winds to the marine areas this morning and rainfall across the north Gulf coast. The low is moving eastward quickly and will be out of the area by this evening. While the surface low will have weakened and moved inland by overnight tonight, the upper level low will remain near the Alcan border which will keep a bit of moisture around the Copper River Basin. This upper level low will also leave some instability over Southcentral that will keep some lingering showers around. As was the case yesterday, the most unstable air will be over the Susitna Valley as there will be enough breaks in the clouds to keep the potential for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
A new upper level low will dig into Southwest Alaska Monday and then into Southcentral for Monday night into Tuesday. This will bring some more showers into the region; especially from the Kenai, Chugach, and Talkeetna Mountains eastward.
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).
Expecting a showery day today along coastal areas of Southwest and the mountains of the AKPEN. An upper level trough is positioned over the eastern Bering Sunday morning and is expected to move inland throughout the day Sunday. Rainfall is primarily along the system's cold front, which is not expected to push far inland due to wind shear from a low over the Gulf of AK. As a result rain should taper off after the front crosses the Kilbuck Mountains and into the Middle Kuskokwim Valley. On Monday, a more impressive trough will dig south from the Bering Strait, which should bring another round of rain to the region. With greater upper level support, rain is expected to be more widespread than on Sunday. By Tuesday, flow aloft will transition to the northeast, which will help to bring in a drier, warmer airmass from the interior.
SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).
The main weather story for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain is an upper level low moving east towards Shemya Sunday morning. It's front is currently bringing small craft winds and rain to the western Aleutian chain. This front will move east through the forecast period, arriving over Dutch Harbor Monday evening. Recent model guidance indicates a triple point low forming along the front to the south of Dutch Harbor around this time. This should lead to some heavier rain as it moves over the eastern Aleutians Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the parent low should slowly occlude over the western Aleutians through Tuesday as it loses upper level support. This will bring low stratus and light rain to most of the region to the south of Saint Matthew Island, where shortwave ridging will keep winds on the lighter side and devoid of rain through Tuesday.
MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tue through Thu).
Low pressure over the Gulf Tuesday afternoon weakens through the evening hours. Looking to the west, models are in good agreement with a low positioned northwest of Adak Tuesday afternoon. The associated front, bringing widespread showers and small craft advisory winds, will continue to push into the Southwest coast by late Tuesday as the system slides eastward and weakens through Thursday morning. Model confidence decreases Wednesday afternoon as some models try to develop a weak low south of Kodiak Island, which would continue into the Gulf through Thursday. However, models agree that winds should remain below gale force throughout the forecast period.
LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wed through Sat).
A front moving in over Southwest Alaska on Wednesday afternoon associated with a weakening low in the Bering will bring a chance of rain showers to the region. However, models are struggling with the position of the associated low and whether it will keep a track farther south, which would keep a drier solution for the Southwest coast with the majority of the precipitation over the Alaska Peninsula. Meanwhile, over Southcentral Alaska, models are hinting at an upper level wave moving into the region, which will keep a widespread chance of showers in the forecast through Thursday with this system. A low trying to develop over the Gulf will bring the next chance of showers to the North Gulf Coast for the end of the week into the beginning of the weekend. There is still model uncertainty as to how far north this low and associated front will move.
AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm 351. Gale 119 120 131. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CJ MARINE/LONG TERM . ALH
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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