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PKZ032 Northern Chatham Strait- 642 Am Akst Wed Dec 6 2023
updated
.small craft advisory today...
Today..S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
Thu..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or less. Rain.
Thu night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 061512 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 612 AM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

SHORT TERM
Our surface low in the gulf will gradually diminish over the next 24 hours as the parent upper level low decays and ejects east. Rain showers continue over the majority of the Panhandle below 1000 to 1500ft, with some snow accumulations in the far north passes. While winds are subsiding for the most part through Wednesday, expect small craft conditions to persist in the northern inner channels into this evening.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, the threat for isolated thunderstorms persists through the short term as unstable air rotates around the low, with the gulf and coastal areas most likely to hear some thunder.


LONG TERM
/Thursday through Sunday/...Little change to the forecast going forward; however uncertainty with the weekend system.

Beginning the midrange on Thursday, a surface low continues to decay in the northern gulf, sending onshore flow towards the panhandle.
While showers and 15-20 knot winds will persist through Thursday morning, it look to be on the downward trend through Thursday evening. On Friday, guidance agrees on a shortwave trough pushing into the north half of the panhandle and the NE gulf coast.
Southerly moist flow with the diminishing temperatures over the week will likely mean more snow for the northern panhandle. Due to a tightening gradient, its likely to see the southerly push go all the way up Lynn Canal and keep Haines and Skagway winds easterly and southerly respectively. Due to the stronger southerly component and warmer air, increased the QPF amounts but kept precipitation type as rain and snow. It will likely accumulate, but due to warm low layers, tempered snow snow amounts down to reflect very heavy, wet snow for the Haines and Klondike Highway.

Then Saturday is where the fun begins. Guidance is slowly converging on a possible solution for a fast developing, strong low pushing up from the south. Unfortunately, at this time, there are still positional issues for the low that have drastic implications on how impactful this system will be. Two scenarios appear to be becoming clear, backed up by ensemble and deterministic models.

On one hand is the deterministic GFS, with good run consistency between the 6z, 12z, and 18z runs, where the low system passes just north of Haida Gwaii and pushes eastward into Canada, bypassing the panhandle entirely. Under this scenario, stronger northerly outflow winds will kick up across the north bringing colder temperatures and possibly some clearing skies. The southern panhandle will experience some stronger, yet brief, rainfall rates. Petersburg and northward will also experience some snowfall, but largely cut short from the lack of moisture working its way northward. Some ensemble members also support this notion of low position and track, but so far, it is the unlikely scenario.

The far more likely scenario, supported with ensemble means in the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS along with good run to run consistency of the 0z and 12z EC, is a developing low moving directly north of the Sitka area, then inland into the Yukon. Under this scenario, there is an increasing likelihood of stronger winds, up to storm force, for the entire panhandle, inside waters, and near shore waters up to cross sound. Furthermore, as the low passes into the Yukon, a strong punch of southerly winds up the north south facing channels will likely follow its exit from the panhandle. Additionally, more moisture will be able to work its way northward into colder air. At this time, it looks too close to call for significant snow accumulations, with ranges from the Icy Strait Corridor anywhere from 2 to 11 inches.
Similarly wide ranges can be said about temperatures as well, as if this scenario plays out, a strong southerly push will likely transition any falling snow to rain. Ultimately, kept the forecast largely the same for the Saturday system due to the large uncertainty. As time gets closer, details will become increasingly clear. Check back for updates regarding this potentially impactful system.

AVIATION
/Through Wednesday night/...Marginal VFR conditions will prevail across Southeast Alaska for the next 24 hours. Ridge tops will be obscured by clouds and there will be minor reductions to visibility in precipitation. Expect rain near the surface, but the freezing level is a mere 2500 ft high. At and above this level will be where vis restrictions will be most pronounced. Some lightning was detected overnight over the eastern Gulf coast as well as on the inside. Not enough to warrant VCTS in any of the TAFs, but enough to mention it for anyone making flights over the central and southern Panhandle today. Knowledge of any significant lightning activity observed at the weather office will be passed on to the Flight Service Stations. Gusty conditions over the northern inner channels as well as the northeast gulf coast will keep the passengers from getting too comfortable but should be quite sporty for the flight crews.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031>035-053-641>644-651- 652-661>664-671-672.

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Hawk Inlet Entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Fritz Cove
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Wed -- 12:27 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:25 AM AKST     3.97 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:59 AM AKST     13.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:28 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:12 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:27 PM AKST     5.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:09 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM AKST     11.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fritz Cove, Douglas Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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