Friday, April16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elfin Cove, AK

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:15PM Friday April 16, 2021 12:17 AM AKDT (08:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:34AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 337 Pm Akdt Thu Apr 15 2021
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 5 ft.
Fri night..Light winds becoming ne 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..E wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tue..NE wind 10 kt becoming w. Seas 8 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elfin Cove, AK
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location: 58.08, -136.57     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 152250 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 250 PM AKDT Thu Apr 15 2021

SHORT TERM. There is split flow between the surface and upper levels today. High clouds that persisted today north and west of Frederick Sound have been due to an upper level jet over the central gulf with clouds streaming out of the south. At the surface, there is relatively little flow, but high pressure in the Yukon and an inverted trough to the south is causing some prevailing north winds, outside of afternoon sea breezes.

Think that fog will be less of an issue Friday morning since everywhere had a good drying day today. Things in favor of early morning fog are: outgoing tide until 10am, relatively light winds in sheltered areas, and added moisture from melting snow. So have kept some of the fog in the forecast, but took it out of places that did not see fog Thursday morning.

High pressure to the north will build over the next two days, causing the north wind to be stronger each day, especially for the northern inner channels and other interior passes along the Coast Mtns on Saturday. This wind direction will bring in dry air and downslope warming. Many long time SE residence would call this, "hot and dusty", in fact, blowing dust has been included in the forecast for Saturday (and Sunday) for downtown Juneau, Haines, and Skagway. At the upper levels, the jet will retrograde to the west as a closed low forms over the western gulf and a closed high sits over the Pacific NW/southern B C. Subsidence from the high pressure aloft will add to the drying and warming over the panhandle. Mid- level flow on Friday will still be S-SW, so some clouds are still possible across the north in the morning. Then on Saturday the mid-level flow will be light and out of the east, adding to the downslope warming. So have nudged temperatures up with majority of the region hitting the 60 degree mark, which could mean some new high temperature records.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through Thursday/The enormous ridge of high pressure bubbling northward from the West Coast of the Lower 48 cooks Southeast Alaska this weekend into early next week. While any meteorologist can see how certain indices, MOS numbers, and ensembles are reaching for the surface of the sun with widespread 60s across Southeast, and even lower 70s on Prince of Wales Island, a few familiar conundrums give us all pause.

No question will it be a warm week, and confidence is high that some records will be matched or exceeded. Already, we are reaching for extreme territory. EC and GFS Ensembles indicate temperatures of 3 to 5 standard deviations warmer than normal for this time of year. Pattern predictability is unbelievably high with this ridge for most all of the extended time period, with some lessening confidence creeping in by mid-next week, but not a lot. Finally, sounding climatology for Annette and Yakutat compared to predicted 850 mb temperatures from a whole suite of models indicate record mid-April warmth across the Panhandle. Also by nature, mature ridges warm a little each day by their subsident processes aloft. And finally to bolster thinking of these seemingly other- worldly high temperatures, many real temperatures Monday into Wednesday of the past week have exceeded our forecast and model expectations by a few degrees each day, even as the mother lode of the ridge still lies well to the southeast.

But we still acknowledge reservations. Characteristics at the surface are not as bullish. With a deep, but waning April snowpack from Juneau north through Upper Lynn Canal as well as a synoptically weak offshore pattern, this forecast, looked at strictly by numbers, could fall short in several key airport locations due to channel breezes that typically cool us all down at times during the warm season. But nonetheless, weak offshore flow, with some indeed light channel breezes may indeed result in light winds in general, which could allow sensible heat to build to maxima. With all this said, perception is everything. And it will feel soothingly warm everywhere. So we raised temperatures yet again, especially across the northern and central Panhandle into next week, but especially this weekend. We now push near 60 across the central Panhandle, with mid 50s in the north, and widespread mid 60s to lower 70s in the south. Also in line with a ridge of an unknown expiration date, we kept temperatures in the 50s throughout all of next week.

Precipitation? Try elsewhere. It will all stay outside of Southeast Alaska into next week. Fog is a possibility, but a decreasing as the atmosphere dries out successively each day. There could be brief periods of stronger offshore flow Saturday into Monday through the Inner Channels, especially Lynn Canal where we could see 30 kt northerlies at times.

Forecast confidence is good indeed.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . None.



Ferrin/JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 9 mi67 min ENE 15 G 18 46°F 1024.9 hPa35°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 14 mi47 min 43°F 42°F1026 hPa
GEXA2 14 mi22 min ENE 9.9 G 17 47°F 1022.9 hPa37°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 44 mi51 min Calm G 1.9 39°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAEL

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------E7--5--6--E9--E7--E11--E10
1 day ago----------------------S10----CalmCalm--Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm
2 days ago----------------------E15--E9----E9E10--E8--6--6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Bingham, Alaska
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Cape Bingham
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Fri -- 12:59 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:29 AM AKDT     9.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:33 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:20 AM AKDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:43 PM AKDT     7.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:04 PM AKDT     3.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.47.28.99.89.88.874.82.60.900.21.33.156.77.77.97.36.2543.53.9

Tide / Current Tables for North Inian Pass, Cross Sound, Alaska Current
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North Inian Pass
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Fri -- 01:00 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:13 AM AKDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:28 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM AKDT     -5.99 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:31 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:14 AM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:55 PM AKDT     2.16 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:18 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:31 PM AKDT     -4.58 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:21 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:22 PM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.521.80.8-1-3.3-5.2-6-5.5-4.1-2.2-0.411.92.21.70.5-1.3-3.2-4.4-4.4-3.5-2-0.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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