Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elfin Cove, AK

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:35PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 2:36 AM AKST (11:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 356 Pm Akst Tue Mar 2 2021
.small craft advisory through Wednesday...
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt becoming e. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain showers in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Wed..E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell.
Wed night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell.
Thu..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell.
Thu night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elfin Cove, AK
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location: 58.08, -136.57     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 030909 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1209 AM AKST Wed Mar 3 2021

UPDATE. Training showers and cold cloud tops that do not appear to be veering off to the west caused us to re-think snowfall accumulations in Yakutat late yesterday evening, so we have posted a winter weather advisory for 3 more inches of snowfall through 6 AM. Reports just before 10 PM from Yakutat spotters indicated heavy snow showers at times with visibility rising and falling suddenly in squalls. Quick comparison of measured melted precip at the airport and reports lead us to believe snow ratios are quite a bit higher than the rest of the Panhandle. While snow is fluffy it is also wet with temperatures right around the freezing mark at 32 degrees. All models indicate veering of winds to southeast or even easterly at some point into early Wednesday morning, so we held off on issuing a warning. But satellite images may suggest higher amounts. We will know just after daybreak.

PREV DISCUSSION. ISSUED AT . 235 PM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

SHORT TERM . Convective showery activity will continue throughout the Panhandle tonight due to persistent southwesterly onshore flow. A low will emerge into the Gulf from the south tomorrow morning with an associated wave riding up the Panhandle Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing more precipitation to the area. P-type is expected to be primarily a rain/snow mix or all rain at the surface for the majority of the Panhandle due to surface temperatures in the middle to upper 30s. Of course, the exceptions are the Klondike and Haines Highways cold spots.

The chance of thunderstorms will continue along the outer coast through tonight as lapse rates remain steep enough to support stronger updrafts. The 00z Yakutat sounding indicates an unstable atmosphere with lapse rates as high at 8C/KM. The onshore flow will cease tomorrow morning across the north as the aforementioned low lifts northward into the Gulf and its wave moves up toward the southern and central Panhandle.

Model forecast 850 mb temperatures will be around -5C to -9C on throughout the short-term forecast period with lower values in the extreme northern Panhandle near Haines and Skagway. Guidance suggests that the surface temperatures will remain too warm for any significant accumulation throughout the period. Generally, most places will see a rain/snow mix as overall southerly flow continues across the central and southern Panhandle as subsequent lows approach and influence the area. Additionally, model forecast thickness values are very borderline for snow throughout the Panhandle through the period.

A brief drying trend begins Thursday as showers will taper off from northwest to southeast. The break is not expected to last long as stratiform precipitation will spread into the southern and central Panhandle from the south as that next low approaches the southern Panhandle Thursday evening. Model agreement on the exact track and intensity of the low is still poor. The GFS has it deepening the most with a central pressure of 988 mb and tracking it up along the outer coast and coming ashore around Port Alexander Friday morning. The EC has a similar track, slightly farther east, but less intense. The Canadian & NAM have a weaker low and moving up between Graham Island and British Columbia Friday night. Therefore, based on this information, went with an EC/GFS/Canadian/NAM blend for that timeframe to get an average location and strength of that system.

Had to drop the surface temperatures over the extreme northern and western Panhandle Thursday evening into Friday due to cold air advection and northerly flow moving in from the Yukon. The CAA is indicated well at 850 mb. The northern Panhandle will remain dry during this part of the short-term forecast period as those areas dip into the lower to middle 20s.

LONG TERM . /Thursday through Tuesday night/ . The message today remains mostly the same as yesterday, as the active pattern continues throughout the long term with a possibility of a precip break Sunday into Monday. Temperatures do not appear to warm or cool substantially during the long term and will hang close enough to freezing to make snow a consideration in at least some portion of the forecast area with each passing disturbance.

Models continue to be in good agreement Thursday with a digging upper level trough over the gulf. At the surface, models are also in decent agreement with a broad low in the gulf, and disturbances rotating around the system bringing periods of precipitation and wind to the panhandle, with no signatures of anything extraordinary. Precipitation type and the timing and strength of the impulses will be the forecast challenges as the long term drifts into the near term, and will continue to be refined.

The long term forecast begins with leftover showers mainly over the central and southern panhandle on Thursday from one of the impulses. Deterministic models and the ensembles backed off on the strength of the surface low approaching the panhandle from the southeast and riding up the coast throughout the day on Friday, and instead have it being a weak precursor to the next front approaching the coast on Saturday. This front looks more robust than yesterday, and due to the run-to-run differences, the forecast package contains a middle of the road blend. Sunday and Monday still look to be the best chance for a break from the active weather but confidence is low for the extended period. Models show another front approaching the coast by Tuesday morning. A blend of GFS and European were used for the early part of the long term, with NBM and WPC for the latter part of the long term.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ017. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-041>043-051>053.



JWA/JLC/BFL

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAEL

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------W10--5--W11--4--Calm
1 day ago------------------------------W10--W15--W12--6--6
2 days ago------------------------------NW10--NW14--SW15------W10

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Bingham, Alaska
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Cape Bingham
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Wed -- 03:19 AM AKST     11.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:34 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:48 AM AKST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:52 PM AKST     9.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:42 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:47 PM AKST     1.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.3810.211.311.19.67.24.41.90.4-00.92.85.27.59.19.68.97.35.23.21.81.52.3

Tide / Current Tables for North Inian Pass, Cross Sound, Alaska Current
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North Inian Pass
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Wed -- 12:38 AM AKST     3.60 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:11 AM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:34 AM AKST     -6.96 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:53 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:33 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:27 AM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:10 PM AKST     3.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:38 PM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:41 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:54 PM AKST     -6.04 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:35 PM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.52.60.5-2.4-5.1-6.7-6.8-5.5-3.4-11.12.53.12.81.4-0.9-3.5-5.4-6-5.2-3.4-1.30.8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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