Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elfin Cove, AK

.SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...We have kept the Flood Watch up through 1 PM, but generally we expect that to expire on time this afternoon as the rains become more patchy (less concentrated and lighter)
with water levels start dropping in the rivers and any associated impacts drop off. The only remaining area with a Wind Advisory is Skagway, and we expect winds to stay up there through mid afternoon at least. The Wind Advisory expires at 7 PM.

.AVIATION (UPDATE)...Much more in the way of VFR observations being noted across SEAK late this morning as the weakening front starts to disspate across the Panhandle. We do expect periods of MVFR in light rain and lower ceilings with passing showers through the day for most locations. Still a bit breezy out there for Juneau north to Haines and Skagway where winds are gusty out of the east and southeast at 15-33kts at times. Skagway will continue to have the strongest wind gusts (to around 33 kts)
through at least 22Z then we should start to see a weakening/decoupling trend on winds as we go into the early evening hours. 05/Garmon

PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 617 AM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Persistent moderate to heavy rain ends through Friday morning, replaced by intermittent rain showers through Friday night.

- Windy conditions continues through Friday across the northern panhandle, with a Wind Advisory in effect for Skagway with gusts up to 45 mph.

- Brief break in rain possible Sunday night into Monday, however another front and round of rain and wind push across the Gulf by Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/ Active period of weather continues through early Thursday morning as a strong front continues to push inland. Overall forecast has remained on track, with our first atmospheric river rainfall over the last 24 hours. Moderate to heavy rain has persisted through the overnight period into early Friday morning from Juneau southward down the panhandle, with constant rain rates around 0.2 an inch per hour, some areas exceeding 0.3 inch per hour rates.
Highest rainfall totals over the last 24 hours with the previous two systems combined is around 4 to 6 inches near Ketchikan and Metlakatla, near 8 inches at the Silvis Powerhouse around 800ft, and around 2 to 4 inches for communities across the northern panhandle.

Moving into early Friday afternoon, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will gradually come to an end from West to East across the panhandle, with periods of rain showers and brief breaks in between expected through Friday night. As this front pushes inland, still some concern for isolated thunderstorm development across the Gulf coast and southern panhandle through this afternoon, however not anticipating widespread severe weather at this time. With any potential thunderstorm, be wary of erratic winds, a few lightning strikes, and limited visibilities due to moderate to heavy rain.

Lastly, as we move into the latter half of October, precipitation type becomes more of an issue (AKA will it be rain, snow, or both?) and more prevalent. With this latest batch of rain moving through the panhandle, did add in a few hours of a rain/snow mix or non-accumulating snow at the higher elevations of Skagway near White Pass through Friday night, albeit chances remain low.

Overnight, strong wind gusts occurred overnight, mainly over the southern panhandle. Gusts around 60 mph were observed over Hydaburg, Ketchikan, and Annette Island. As the front continues to push inland, periods of gusty winds will follow. Strongest winds throughout the rest of today will be near Skagway with gusts to around 45 mph. These strong gusts will diminish through this evening.

LONG TERM
/Saturday through Wednesday/
For the weekend, the active weather pattern will persist at least through Saturday, as lingering low pressure in the northern Gulf will keep onshore flow, mainly cloudy skies and rain showers across much of the Panhandle. As this low weakens, another low passing well to the south will allow a high pressure ridge to build over the Gulf into SEAK. This transition is expected to bring a brief lull in rain showers later Sunday.

The break will be short-lived as another low and front quickly swing through the Gulf into SEAK on Monday, likely reaching Yakutat by the afternoon and then swinging through the panhandle Monday night into early Tuesday. With the quick progression of this system, overall rain amounts will be limited, although a brief period of moderate to heavy rain expected with the frontal passage. Another large, gale force to potential storm force, low will lift northeast into the Gulf of Alaska on Monday night into Tuesday, sending a another front and deep moisture feed toward SEAK. While models agree on the overall general pattern, differences in timing and strength of this low and attendant front still persist. Despite model differences, the low is expected to stall over northern Gulf and weaken by midweek. However, the prolonged onshore flow and a good potential for moderate to heavy rain persists behind the initial front through midweek.

Winds will begin to pick up on Monday night as the front approaches, with breezy to windy southerlies ahead and with the frontal passage Tuesday, with gales possible for Clarence and northern Lynn.

Cooler daytime temps will prevail with the persistent onshore flow, mainly cloudy skies and rain, with highs generally in the mid to upper 40s. Nighttime lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION
/through 12z Saturday/
Conditions across the panhandle continue to be less than favorable for flying this morning. Ceilings range from VFR down to IFR with visibilities generally remaining VFR to MVFR with the rain and wind. Periods of heavy rain will continue through this morning which will aid in reduced ceilings and visibilities. Winds are also elevated this morning, especially across the southern panhandle where gusts have been getting up to 40-50 kt. These gusts should diminish later this morning as the system affecting us moves north into Canada.
When this happens, winds should start to trend down for the southern panhandle but will increase for places such as Skagway and Haines. The persistent rain will also come to an end but rain showers will be likely with the continued onshore flow. Some of these showers could be heavier at times and might reduce ceilings and visibilities.

MARINE...

Outside Waters: Overall wind speeds have diminished across the gulf as the front has moved inland this morning. Southwesterly winds around 15 to 20 kts continue with elevated seas around 9 to 12 ft.
Significant sea heights will remain elevated as the next low pressure system begins to move eastward into the gulf. This next low will actually cause seas to build to around 10 to 15 ft late Friday into Saturday with highest waves over the central gulf. Around the same time, winds will increase to around 25 to 30 kts remaining southwesterly, except for the far northern gulf that will become east-southeasterly Saturday morning. The low causing these slightly increased winds will then weaken late Saturday into Sunday, allowing for winds and waves to relax. Looking ahead, the next system arrives late Monday into Tuesday, bringing strong winds and elevated seas.

Inside Waters: A strong front continues to move across the panhandle early this morning. This has brought increased winds across the inside waters. Currently strongest winds are occurring over Stephens Passage with winds around 25 to 30 kts. As this front continues to push inland, Lynn Canal will start to see increased winds to around 30 to 35 kts. These stronger winds will last longer over Northern Lynn Canal, remaining into Sunday evening. Central and northern channels winds will continue to remain slightly elevated, around 15 to 20 kts through Saturday as another low pressure system tracks eastward into the gulf. Winds across the area will then diminish Sunday as that second low pressure system weakens.
Looking ahead, the next system arrives late Monday into Tuesday, once again bringing increased winds across the inner channels.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318.
Flood Watch until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ326>330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672.