Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elfin Cove, AK

SHORT TERM
A weak front continues to push its way toward the panhandle as of early Wednesday morning. This front has continued to weaken the farther eastward it has moved. Because of this, the main changes to the forecast over night included decreasing winds and QPF amounts across the area. Rain is still likely to begin late Wednesday morning, but minimal rain totals are anticipated. The low pressure system over the gulf will continue to send shortwaves into the panhandle through the work week bringing light showers to the area. No major impacts are anticipated.

Similarly to precipitation, winds were decreased due to weaker than anticipated winds over the gulf waters this morning. Lighter winds are likely to continue through the work week before the next organized system moves into the gulf. For Wednesday, there will be a period of slightly stronger southwesterly winds and wind gusts over Lynn Canal into Skagway and Clarence Strait into the Southern gulf, during the afternoon into the evening. This is due to another shortwave pushing into the panhandle. Even though winds will be slightly increased, they will remain around 15 to 20 kts. Winds will then become SSE and remain on the lighter end into Thursday.

LONG TERM
/Wednesday through Saturday/...A front is expected to push into the area Wednesday morning extending from a low in the Bering Sea. This front will move northeastward across the panhandle, with between 0.2 and 0.5 inches of rain expected to fall across the area through the day Wednesday. This generally weaker front will not bring up the winds much across the panhandle as it passes through, with the winds over land areas largely staying below 15 kts through the long term period.

As the low lingers in the western Gulf of Alaska and weakens, onshore flow will continue to bring less organized rounds of precipitation into the panhandle. These showers will follow behind the front and last through the day Thursday as shortwaves rotate around the low aloft. The surface and upper level troughing will begin to dig southeastward near the coast of B.C. as some ridging develops over the Aleutians and north Pacific along with the high pressure building over the panhandle, keeping much of the shower activity more southward with more of a break in weather for the northern half of the panhandle Friday. The next system will begin to move in from the west Saturday night, bringing another front through the area into Sunday.

AVIATION
VFR conditions and light winds prevail across the northern panhandle this morning while areas of MVFR ceilings (down to 1500 ft) are present in the southern panhandle, but a front just offshore will bring light rain and clouds to most of the panhandle by Wed afternoon. Timing of the rainfall will have the outer coast seeing it come in this morning (around 15 to 20z) while areas farther inland like Wrangell, Juneau, Haines and Skagway will wait until early afternoon (around 20 to 23z). Initially visibility will not be significantly reduced, but some areas of MVFR vis are possible after 0z this evening as some heavier showers move in.
Ceilings will take some time to lower as well with mostly MVFR ceilings expected after 20z today. Expect the MVFR conditions (mostly lower ceilings) with maybe some isolated IFR to persist into Thursday morning before improving somewhat. Winds will mostly be on the light side with maybe some gusts to 15 to 20 kt at times as the front comes inland Wed.

MARINE
Inside (Inner Channels): Winds will remain on the lighter side even as a weak front moves over the panhandle Wednesday. Strongest winds are most likely to occur over Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait Wednesday afternoon into evening. Southerly winds over those areas are likely to remain around 10 to 15 kts with gusts around 20 to 25 kts. Winds across other inner channels will also stay on the lighter side around 5 to 10 kts. These other areas could see short times of gusty winds of 15 to 20 kts as the front moves across the area.
Otherwise, winds and seas are likely to remain on the lighter and calmer side through the work week. The next organized system will reach SE AK late this weekend.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The front moving across the gulf into the panhandle is not as strong as initially anticipated. This being said, the strongest winds were and are still located over the northern gulf near Cape Suckling with southeasterly winds of 15 to 20 kts this morning. As this front continues to push eastward, the central and southern gulf will see winds become southwesterly through Wednesday night. During this time, it is likely that an areas of the southern gulf coast, near Prince of Wales Island, will see winds increase to around 20 kts this evening with that westerly push.
Afterward, winds will once again weaken and become predominately southeasterly throughout the gulf for Thursday. As for seas, significant seas will remain between 5 to 7 ft over the gulf into the weekend.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.