Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elfin Cove, AK

SHORT TERM
/through Sunday/ The next round of snow begins to move into the panhandle late Friday night, mainly after 3AM. The front will track northward Saturday before fading out near the Sumner Strait to Frederick Sound area late Saturday night. Along this front will be moderate to heavy precipitation. And with the cold air in place, snow will likely be the precip-type at the start of this event. As the front tracks northward, the snow will transition to rain as warmer air surges northward.

For now, the thinking is the rain will stay mainly in the far southern panhandle while a rain/snow mix could reach the Wrangell/Petersburg area. The snow that is able to fall before the transiton to rain will be a decent amount though. Think now is 3 to 5 inches on southern Prince of Wales Island, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla before the warmer air allows rain to mix in. Once that mix begins to happen, snowfall potential drops and by Saturday afternoon, mainly rain is expected with rain lasting into Sunday.

That is the most likely scenario. Other possibilities are centered around the different timings of when the snow-to-rain switch will happen. The 'warmest' solution brings the warmer air in very quickly, around 6am, which would drastically lower snowfall totals to around 1 to 3 inches. The 'coldest' solution keeps the cold air in place until Saturday evening, around 9PM. If this scenario plays out, then snowfall amounts would be higher at around 6 to 9 inches before the transition to rain begins.

As the front fades out, some light precip will drift northward, reaching as far north as the Icy Strait Corridor by Saturday night. From the Juneau area to Wrangell, upwards of 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible Saturday night. Lighter amounts are likely along and west of Chatham Strait including: Gustavus, Hoonah, Angoon, Sitka, Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Tenekee Springs.

While temperatures around SE AK will have a wide spread from north to south, the overall trend for the entire area is warming temps. As the warmer air pushes north, temps will warm. Granted, some areas are so cold now that the 'warmer' temps will still produce snow, especially the far northern panhandle.

LONG TERM
/Sunday through Tuesday/...
A low jumping into the southern gulf Saturday is expected to send a high precipitation- producing front into the southern panhandle this weekend. This front will steadily climb northward through the weekend before pulling back early next week. Persistent cold temperatures combined with the ample moisture being carried in with this system should result in widespread precipitation spreading up the panhandle through the period.

The biggest change that was made was shifting the timing of the system up a few hours, which in turn will bring snow to the southern panhandle in the early hours of Saturday morning. As the main precipitation band moves north following the coastal mountains through Saturday morning, the central panhandle will start to see light snow accumulate followed by parts of the Icy Strait Corridor, mainly Juneau. Light rates will trickle out through Saturday night before the front sends a reinforcing wave of moisture up through the panhandle, bringing the more anticipated moderate snowfall rates through the central panhandle and into the Icy Strait Corridor. The main forecast challenge today was determining where this precipitation would fall as rain or snow, as the initial frontal band is looking to force a pocket of warmer air into the southern panhandle earlier than expected.
Models are showing more agreement on the front temporarily pushing temperatures around 40 degrees up into the far southern panhandle Saturday afternoon, which has indicated to us that the initial snow the southern panhandle receives will most likely mix into rain through the remainder of the weekend. As a result, the winter storm watch that was issued yesterday has been updated to a winter weather advisory to better encompass those accumulations. A winter storm watch was also issued for the extended central panhandle area on Sunday. This includes all communities from Juneau and the Icy Strait Corridor down to Wrangell.

Totals still widely vary this far out, though moderate to heavy rates still remain possible. On Saturday, accumulations between 2 and 5 inches are possible anywhere south of and including Kupreanof Island. Other locations may see around an inch as the system attempts to spread north. Sunday, the higher accumulations move to the central panhandle, with between 5 to 12 inches possible from Juneau down to Port Alexander. The interior panhandle closer to the coastal mountain range can expect to see the higher end of these totals. Due to the vastly different microclimates around SE AK, isolated locations may receive up to 13 inches of snow in that 24 hour period. Confidence largely decreases on the front reaching further north, though the possibility still remains of communities in northern Lynn Canal receiving light snow accumulations from this system. With the southern panhandle remaining above freezing during that period, heavy rainfall between 1 to 2 inches is expected Sunday. Since the timing of the system was shifted up, precipitation on Monday begins to pull back out of the northern panhandle through the afternoon, with rates steadily diminishing overnight. Though final snowfall totals may widely vary from place to place, the longer duration of this event, combined with the potential for rain on snow in some more southern locations, could lead to impactful conditions by the beginning of next week. Another system looks to queue up behind this one, and combined with the arctic boundary shifting back southward, may keep active winter weather in the forecast through next week.

Hyder is the odd one out with this system, as the location may allow for cold air to stick around longer. A weak atmospheric river directed into BC south of the panhandle looks to hook up along the southern parts of the coastal range, drastically increasing QPF amounts for Hyder in particular. If they are able to hold onto their cold temperatures in combination with such increased moisture making it that far inland, total snow accumulations between 25 and 30 inches from Saturday through Monday may be possible.

Strong outflow winds begin picking back up Saturday, persisting through next week reaching at least gale force through the northern inner channels and out of Cross Sound. Gaps and drainage channels along the gulf coast will serve as outlets for strong winds to funnel through, with pockets of storm force sustained winds looking probable Sunday into Monday. Freezing spray will remain an issue in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast with these elevated winds, which could become heavy at times.
These outflow winds pose a challenge for the forecast, as the strong northerly flow will attempt to force the front to stay more south and limit available moisture to produce accumulating snow.

AVIATION
/through Saturday afternoon/ VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this afternon with an underlying FEW to SCT deck around 2000 to 5000ft, OVC 5000ft in the N Gulf near Yakutat.

No major changes to forecast thinking at this time. Not too many aviation concerns through this TAF period, but outflow winds will continue so marginal LLWS would be a concern for places like Taku Inlet near Juneau, Alsek River near Yakutat, and Stikine Delta region near Wrangell. JAWS for Junea showing N to NE-ly winds around 2000ft near 10kts, increasing to 30kts at 3000ft. VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with CIGS AOA 5000ft and no precipitation expected through Friday night. The strongest surface winds will remain near Skagway and Haines through the afternoon, sustained around 15 to 20kts with gusts up to 35kts at Skagway. Aviation conditions beging to detiorate for southern panhandle TAF sites by 12z Saturday as a front pushes inland, with increasing snow chances by 18z Saturday for Ketchikan and Klawock into Sunday afernoon.

MARINE
Outside: Northeasterly outflow wind speeds decrease tonight.
Then, outflow gap winds increase again, up to around 35-45 kt, for the same areas for the weekend. Some freezing spray is possible for the northeastern gulf.

Inside: The outflow pattern continues through Friday with an overall weakening trend. Friday night into Saturday, wind speeds pick back up to 25 to 35 kts, with near 35 to 40 kts back in Lynn Canal as a low pressure system tracks northward, tightening the pressure gradient over SE AK. Wind directions will, more-or-less, go unchanged through this time frame across the northern panhandle. Freezing spray continuing for Stephens Passage, Northern Chatham, Icy Strait Corridor, and Lynn Canal through the weekend, progessively getting heavier towards early week. A weak system will push into the southern panhandle through Saturday, with a swap to southerly winds within Clarence Strait.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for AKZ320>327-329.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ326-327-329.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ328-330-332.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-022-053-643-644-651-663-664-671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031-032-034-641-642-652-661-662- 672.