Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elfin Cove, AK

SHORT TERM
/ through Friday night / Broad area of low pressure over the gulf continues, and a low with the next system approaching the southeast gulf near Prince of Wales Island then falling apart as the moves into the panhandle. The associated frontal band is moving through Friday and to the northern panhandle by Friday night. The low appears weaker than previously thought so wind speed with the feature have been reduced. Still anticipating minor gusts to 20 to 25 mph over the southern panhandle.

After the front, expect that occasional showers for the panhandle region overnight. It does look like there will be decrease in rain changes late Friday into Saturday morning for the southern half of the panhandle. A pocket of fog in the Juneau area developed overnight and has prompted a dense fog advisory in the local Juneau area.

LONG TERM
Active weather continues into the long term as a low tracking north from the Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska looks to bring the next round of active weather. Right now, there is still decent disagreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance with the track of this low. These solutions are split between tracking north along the coast and potentially bringing significant winds to large portions of the panhandle. The second solution is that the low tracks inland over Prince of Wales Island and Sumner Strait. This second solution would limit the high wind potential to the southern panhandle as it tracks through the area.

Regardless of the track of the low, precipitation is expected to continue for the panhandle with rain for most places and snow for the higher elevation locations. Current thinking is that most places will see around 6 hour rain amounts jumping up to 0.5-0.75" at their max. After this system moves through, the concern then turns to the next potentially impactful low to move into the area for next week which could bring significant moisture to the panhandle over a few days.

AVIATION
Less than ideal flying conditions across much of SE AK through Friday, as a system traverses N through the panhandle.
VFR conditions still lingering across the north will give way to MVFR and IFR conditions as the system moves through, with MVFR conditions expected to linger through much of the day, even in the wake of the system. The potential for some fog to develop during the overnight hours also exists, should enough clearing of the upper level cloud deck take place in the wake of the system.
Conditions will improve substantially on Saturday, with may areas returning to VFR, before another system arriving late in the day sends CIGS downwards again.

MARINE
Outside (Gulf and coastal waters): Moving through Thursday night and into the start of the weekend, a chaotic pattern continues to impact the N/Pac, with our parade of systems continuing to stream into the Gulf of Alaska. Early Friday, our first system will be a fast moving low sustained by dynamics from a shortwave trough, making landfall in the southern Panhandle, up to the small craft levels for the southern gulf coast waters. Overall seas in the gulf 10 to 14 feet generally continuing through Friday and Saturday. Next incoming system expect seas building to the upper teens for the southeast gulf waters moving into the start of next week.

Inside (Inner Channels): Weaker frontal band moving in is resulting in smaller foot print of small craft winds for the southern. Lynn Canal has north winds while the rest of the panhandle is dealing with southern winds with easterly winds out of Cross Sound. Expect to see an increase back to 25 to 30 kt by Sunday and possibly to Gale force early part of next week. Patchy fog overnight into early Saturday



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.