Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hoonah, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:37AMSunset 3:08PM Sunday December 15, 2019 11:35 PM AKST (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:17PMMoonset 11:44AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 312 Pm Akst Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Tonight..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
Tue night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hoonah, AK
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location: 58.2, -135.58     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 152231 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 131 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

SHORT TERM. After a brief break, more cool wet weather is on the way for the next 3 days.

Currently a vertically stacked low continues to spin just SW of Kodiak Island. A rapidly occluding front extends eastward from the low across the northern and eastern Gulf and then southward into the north Pacific. This front will weaken as it crosses SE AK tonight and early Monday. Gale force winds ahead of the front over the Gulf will continue tonight before diminishing as the front moves inland Monday. Over the inside waters, stable air and a parallel surface gradient will limit winds significantly. Easterly gradient will favor primarily east/west channels so easterly winds of 25 to 30 kt are possible for Icy Strait, Young Bay south of Douglas Island, and Sumner Strait. These winds will also diminish on Monday as the front passes.

Precipitation will be widespread ahead of the front tonight and early Monday. Low level thickness values point to the potential for some snow for interior and northern areas late tonight as easterly flow draws some drier air into the region leading to better evaporative cooling potential. Think without a significant continental airmass intrusion we will have a hard time getting any accumulation as surface temps will be marginal at best. Left mention of a rain/snow mix for Petersburg/Wrangell northward to Juneau tonight with little to no accumulation. Further north, colder air is in place near Haines and Skagway so 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible there. One exception may be Hyder, closer to the influence of a cold surface high over BC. Isentropic ascent over the cold dome, combined with ascent from an approaching PV max will lead to a period of moderate snowfall there tonight and early Monday with amounts of 4 to 6 inches expected.

For Monday night into Tuesday, models remain somewhat spread on how far the low level front will penetrate inland over the southern Panhandle. This will directly affect the track of a robust developing frontal wave progged to lift northward and either over or just south of the southern Panhandle Monday night and early Tuesday. Left the Winter Storm Watch for Hyder as is for now. Some concerns are: 1. Does tonight's front push eastward and through the Hyder area, allowing for the continental airmass to be mixed out? The NAM would suggest yes, while the GFS and Canadian models would say no. 2. Even if the continental air is mixed out, do snow levels remain low enough that with weak boundary layer winds and tremendous precipitation rates, snow levels lower to the surface again due to melt cooling? All models indicate this is a possibility. Another caveat is that with a track similar to the GFS and Canadian models, some portion of the central/southern Panhandle outside of the Misty Fjords may be in the "sweet spot" where heavy rates and low level thickness values between 1290 and 1300 combine to allow rain to change to a heavy, wet snow for a while early Tuesday morning. Should this happen, a few surprise inches of snow may fall anywhere from Petersburg to northern Prince of Wales Island. Something to monitor as the track of the surface to 850mb low will be the key to these ingredients coming together.

One last issue is that should the wave track even further north and west than the GFS/Canadian models, a more significant wind event may occur over the far southern Panhandle including Ketchikan and Metlakatla. For now, this seems unlikely but with the low tracking up from the data-void of the NPAC this will be something to monitor as models often catch up to these systems at the last possible minute.

With the uncertainty regarding the track of the frontal wave, elected to make few changes to the wind field and precip amounts/type with the exception of cooling temperatures slightly in the central Panhandle late Monday night and early Tuesday to account for melt-cooling potential.

LONG TERM. /Tuesday through Sunday night/ . The extended range begins with a weakening area of low pressure in the western gulf pushing a weak front into the Panhandle. A disturbance will be riding up the dying front around Haida Gwaii affecting mainly the Southern Panhandle. A complex low out in the Aleutians will then move into the gulf mid week with multiple disturbances rotating around it and into the Panhandle. The low is expected to weaken in the gulf by the weekend keeping much of Southeast Alaska in a continuous onshore flow pattern. There are still model discrepancies for the timing and placement of each system moving into the region. What does appear to be relatively certain is wet weather will persist through most of the coming week.

No major changes were made to the long range forecast. On Tuesday, models have been showing a system developing south of Haida Gwaii and riding up the weakening front already over the Panhandle bringing another round of precipitation to the Southern Panhandle. Mainly rain is expected, however could be P-type could be an issue for Hyder. Mid week, a complex low moves into the Gulf from the Aleutians swinging another front into the Panhandle and keeping the chance for precipitation around the rest of the week. Current thinking is that the far northern Panhandle has the best chance at seeing any frozen precipitation next week, mainly along the highways. In this type of onshore flow pattern, it is very hard to get cold air at sea level to support snow. Below average snowfall for December is expected to continue into next week as temperatures will remain at or just above average.

Relied heavily on WPC Wednesday through Sunday. Overall long range forecast confidence is average.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ022. Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for AKZ029. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-035-036-053.



DEL/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GUXA2 16 mi24 min NNW 4.1 G 7 34°F 1004.1 hPa33°F
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 17 mi74 min ENE 20 G 27 39°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 24 mi70 min NE 6 G 12 37°F
RIXA2 28 mi24 min N 30 G 39 36°F 1002.9 hPa33°F
NKXA2 34 mi24 min NE 22 G 27 34°F 1005.1 hPa31°F
TKEA2 - Tenakee Springs, AK 35 mi24 min ENE 23 G 35 35°F 1003.3 hPa30°F
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 36 mi26 min N 16 G 25 34°F 1007.8 hPa30°F
LIXA2 37 mi24 min NNW 19 G 26 34°F 1005.5 hPa31°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 41 mi54 min 37°F 45°F1005.1 hPa
PTLA2 45 mi24 min N 9.9 G 14 35°F 1006 hPa30°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoonah - Hoonah Seaplane Base, AK9 mi1.7 hrsE 910.00 miLight Rain35°F30°F85%1007 hPa
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK17 mi40 minNW 610.00 miLight Rain33°F30°F92%1006.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAOH

Wind History from AOH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm------Calm--CalmE4E5E5--E6----SE4E7E7--E6--E12
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1 day agoCalm--E3E3CalmE3E4Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm--CalmCalm--Calm--CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN3E3----NE3E4S3--SE3CalmE8E6E8E5W3CalmCalm----CalmCalmCalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Flynn Cove, Icy Strait, Alaska
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Flynn Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:48 AM AKST     14.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:44 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:34 AM AKST     3.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:09 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:11 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 03:29 PM AKST     15.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:45 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:11 PM AKST     -1.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.38.311.713.914.413.411.18.35.74.145.58.211.213.815.315.313.710.773.20.3-1-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hoonah Harbor, Port Frederick, Alaska
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Hoonah Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:54 AM AKST     14.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:38 AM AKST     3.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:08 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:11 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 03:35 PM AKST     15.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:44 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:15 PM AKST     -1.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4811.413.714.413.511.48.55.94.245.47.91113.615.215.413.9117.33.40.4-1-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.