Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Excursion Inlet, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:57PM Monday October 14, 2019 2:16 AM AKDT (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:46PMMoonset 8:11AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ013 Southern Lynn Canal- 306 Pm Akdt Sun Oct 13 2019
.small craft advisory Monday...
Tonight..N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Seas building to 4 ft late.
Mon..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon night..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Tue..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Tue night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Excursion Inlet CDP, AK
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location: 58.42, -134.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 132251
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
251 pm akdt Sun oct 13 2019

Short term through Tuesday night main concern of the short
range period today is the gale force front that will be making its
way into the gulf and panhandle on Mon and Mon night. Structure of
the system is very complex with the main parent low meandering
around 50n and an occluded front wrapping through the southern
gulf most of Mon and Mon night. The main forecast uncertainty is
dealing with the various short waves that are embedded in the
frontal structure through guidance is getting better on that
issue.

In any case, rain will be starting up in the southern panhandle as
early as Mon morning and will spread n. Areas N of angoon and
tenakee springs should remain dry through Monday before the rain
reaches them Mon night. Areas south of frederick sound will
receive the bulk of the rain as the system shows a decent
tropical connection that includes moisture pulled from former
tropical storm ema near hawaii. Current pw measurements in the
moisture plume are around 1.5 to 2 inches which is around 150 to
200 percent of normal. Total rainfall is expected to range
anywhere from 1 to 4 inches through Tuesday afternoon with the
highest rain rates expected Mon afternoon into Tuesday.

Snow is also a possibility on the haines and klondike highways mon
night and Tuesday. Not much QPF makes it up that far north
thought, so snow accumulation should only amount to around 2 to 3
inches at higher elevations Mon night and Tuesday. Some snow may
even mix in with the rain at sea level in haines and skagway late
mon night, but no accumulation is expected there.

Also of concern is the gusty winds expected with this front. Wide
spread mid to high end gales are expected across the gulf Mon into
mon night. There is the possibility of some min storm force winds
along this front Mon afternoon in the gulf but confidence was not
high enough for its inclusion in the current forecast. Wide spread
gusts to 40 or 45 mph are likely for the southern panhandle and
southern outer coast at the same time. Farther north, winds will
have more of a northeasterly component as the front comes up.

Northerly pressure gradients will likely increase enough for small
craft northerlies in lynn canal on mon. There is also the
possibility of some gusty winds in downtown juneau and douglas due
to a synoptically driven mountain wave event mon. I do not expect
gusts to exceed 35 mph at this time though. Those winds should
diminish as the first rain bands move in Mon evening.

Forecast changes mainly limited to local effect changes with large
scale features still well represented in the current forecast.

Used mainly NAM for guidance.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday as of 10 pm Saturday ... Long-
term forecast continues to pose a challenge.The fall pattern will
continue to impact the area. Ensembles are falling into more
agreement with the idea of multiple shortwaves developing around
the broad area of low pressure which will be in the gulf of alaska
throughout most of next week, especially from Tuesday onwards.

There are some indications of possible shortwave interaction with
the panhandle on late Tuesday followed by another wave early
Thursday. However, timing and exact placement of the wave features
remains up in the air and guidance has yet to reach a firm
consensus, so have elected to hold off on sketching out any real
impacts from possible shortwaves at this time.

What is not in disagreement however is the continued chance of
precipitation for the panhandle throughout the long term forecast
period. Moisture transport, though not ideal, will provide the
impetus for continued opportunities for rain throughout the area.

Any shortwave development could also elevate pop through the
panhandle, and will continue to monitor as event approaches. Also
a chance of snow in some of the upper elevations and at white
pass is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Still watching what might happen with the extratropical evolution
of typhoon hagibis into the middle of next week. The system being
driven by a very strong upper level jet is likely to move near
the aleutians late Monday. The interaction with the previous low
will likely be complex, but additional tropical energy could
definitely increase pops next week if it can make it into the
gulf.

Relatively few changes made throughout the long term. Pop was
generally elevated in some locations throughout parts of next
week, and wind speeds were increased in some locations for
Tuesday. Additionally, temperatures were moderated in some
northern forecast locations. Forecast confidence is average
through the long range.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind Monday afternoon for akz026-028.

Strong wind Monday afternoon for akz023-027.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz022-036-041>043-051.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-021-031-033>035-052.

Eal gfs
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 4 mi66 min N 8 G 15 40°F 1016.7 hPa34°F
PTLA2 8 mi24 min E 1 G 2.9 38°F 1015 hPa35°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 26 mi46 min W 1 G 2.9 33°F 47°F1016.7 hPa
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 28 mi30 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 34°F 1015.7 hPa34°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Juneau, Juneau International Airport, AK16 mi23 minN 010.00 miPatches Fog28°F27°F96%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAJN

Wind History from AJN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmSE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm4SW3SW3SW3S3S3E3CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago3E9E10E7NE6E10E6E9E7E8NW3SE5NE6E6E8NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE15
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E20SE12E6E83E8NE4E5NE3E5CalmE4E6NE6E8E5

Tide / Current Tables for Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Barlow Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:51 AM AKDT     15.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:33 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:55 AM AKDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:59 PM AKDT     16.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:45 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:18 PM AKDT     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.314.815.514.411.67.84.11.30.41.74.98.912.815.516.515.512.88.84.40.9-0.9-0.52.26.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Lincoln Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:01 AM AKDT     16.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:33 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:02 AM AKDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:09 PM AKDT     17.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:45 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:25 PM AKDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.515.316.315.412.88.951.90.71.84.88.812.915.917.216.514105.51.6-0.5-0.32.16

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.