Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Excursion Inlet, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:33AMSunset 3:09PM Thursday December 12, 2019 1:28 AM AKST (10:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:47PMMoonset 10:09AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ013 Southern Lynn Canal- 405 Pm Akst Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory through Thursday...
Tonight..N wind increasing to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Fri..SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
Fri night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SE wind 15 kt becoming n. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Excursion Inlet CDP, AK
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location: 58.42, -134.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 112348 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 248 PM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

SHORT TERM. A gale force front continues to buffet parts of the outer coast and even portions of the inner channels with strong wind gusts as of this afternoon. At least one 50 kt gust was recorded - at Tenakee Springs - earlier today. As the front continues to rotate about the parent low - located over the southwest Gulf - it will weaken and shear apart. This will allow winds to diminish steadily through this short range forecast period. Small craft conditions will persist over the eastern Gulf through Friday, but the inner channels will relax much sooner. By Thursday afternoon, the last remaining small craft winds over Icy Strait and Cross Sound will end.

A second wrap of moisture associated with the parent low will keep precipitation going over Southeast Alaska so the first possible widespread break in snow/rain will not come until this next weekend. COlder low level air will begin to advect in from the west Thursday evening and lower snow levels. This combined with persistent precipitation is expected to produce accumulating snow at lower elevations over much of the northern Panhandle and the coast mountains all the way down to Hyder. Heaviest snowfall will occur Thursday night and be focused on the Haines area and Haines Highway. This is when and where maximum Omega values intersect the snow growth zone in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Have issued a winter weather advisory for 4 to 6 inches of snow as a result. Significant snowfall is expected for the Skagway area as well and Omega values there peak shortly after those in the Haines area - on Friday morning. Accumulating snow will likely continue on Friday morning, but snowfall rates should fall below advisory levels by then. Cannot rule out an advisory for Skagway as well, but confidence in snow totals was not high enough to include that zone in the advisory at this time. Subsequent shifts will have to look closely as newer model data is received.

Forecast confidence in the short range is average. to slightly above average.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through Wednesday night/ . The extended range forecast begins with a weakening upper low in the western gulf. An upper ridge near the Aleutians will shift east over the Panhandle by Sunday morning. With a split flow pattern setting up for the end of the weekend into early next week, models do not have a good handle on the overall weather pattern. Throughout next week, multiple lows look to move into the gulf which will influence the weather over the Panhandle. What does appear to be relatively certain is wet weather will persist through most, if not all, of the coming week.

No major changes were made to the long range forecast tonight due to poor model agreement for much of next week. Guidance does indicate that there will be low level cold air advection from the west through the weekend. The forecast reflects model guidance by showing a cooling trend through Monday with temperatures remaining around average next week. Since there is little agreement among the models, a slight change to one aspect of the forecast will greatly affect the rest of the forecast. Temperatures have an effect on snow levels, which in turn, have an effect on the probability of snow rather than rain for the next week. Current thinking is that the northern Panhandle has the best chance at seeing frozen precipitation, especially along the highways. The southern Panhandle is expected to see predominantly rain moving into the weekend and next week. Fortunately, several days remain before this becomes an issue with impacts on the public, so it can be studied closely by multiple shifts.

Overall long range forecast confidence is below average.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ027-028. Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ023. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM AKST Friday for AKZ019. Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ021. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-033-035-036-053.



Fritsch/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 4 mi79 min N 11 G 16 41°F 996.3 hPa35°F
PTLA2 8 mi37 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 39°F 994.5 hPa39°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 26 mi59 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 38°F 43°F996.1 hPa
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 28 mi41 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 40°F 995.4 hPa37°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Juneau, Juneau International Airport, AK16 mi36 minN 07.00 miPatches Fog34°F33°F97%996.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAJN

Wind History from AJN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E6CalmCalmCalmW5CalmNW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE33SW4CalmS3E3W3E3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmE4E10E6CalmE7SE5E7S4E10E10E9E10E12E9E9E12E11E8
2 days ago--E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE4NW4CalmCalmE6E7E17
G23
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Tide / Current Tables for Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Barlow Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:52 AM AKST     14.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM AKST     2.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:38 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:08 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:31 PM AKST     17.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:07 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 03:47 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:13 PM AKST     -2.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1414.713.711.38.15.13.234.88.111.915.117.117.115.311.87.32.7-1-2.7-20.95.19.4

Tide / Current Tables for Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Lincoln Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:02 AM AKST     15.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM AKST     3.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:40 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:09 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:41 PM AKST     18.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:06 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 03:46 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:20 PM AKST     -2.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.515.514.712.49.15.93.63.24.8811.915.417.61816.413.18.53.7-0.3-2.3-1.90.84.99.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.