Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 222350 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 250 PM AKST Wed Jan 22 2020

SHORT TERM. A band of precipitation over the Icy Strait/Juneau to Haines area caused accumulating snow for Juneau and Haines today while Gustavus and Hoonah saw mainly rain. This points to the narrow rain/snow line over the north/central panhandle. The next weather system is already causing rain over the southern half of the region and this will spread northward overnight. As the low approaches, winds should increase out of the north through the northern inner channels, helping to keep temperatures down near freezing in the Juneau area. Therefore expecting precipitation start as snow in the Valley and a mix for Downtown Juneau. 3-5 inches of snow is expected before changing to mainly rain in the afternoon, but will once again affect the Thursday morning commute. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 3am - 1pm Thursday for Juneau.

The precip will spread northward through the morning, causing snow to increase again for Haines and Skagway. Temperatures should stay cold enough in these locations to see all snow, but wouldn't be surprised if some mixing were to occur near sea level Thursday afternoon. This will be a wetter snow that compacts more, so not expecting accumulations to pile up as quickly as with other recent events.

The low pressure center will weaken as it tracks northward along the outer coast through Thursday afternoon. However, an upper trough will dig into the NW gulf through the day and cause a new stronger low to overtake the first. This will may result in a lull in precip rates Thursday afternoon, but will then become enhanced again Thursday night into Friday. Expect this to keep snow going in Haines and Skagway. With no discernible break, a long duration Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 6am Thursday - 6pm Friday for 10-16 inches.

The upper level trough brings with it much colder air from interior Alaska. The cold air tracks across the gulf from the west on Friday, causing a change to showers, which will become more mixed with snow through the night for the whole region.

LONG TERM. /Friday through Wednesday/As of 10 PM Tuesday/Overall longwave pattern over Alaska for this period will feature a persistent ridge over the Bering Sea with a deep upper trough over mainland Alaska. This pattern favors the building of a very cold airmass over much of the state. For most of this time period, SE Alaska will be to the east of the primary trough axis and in S'ly to SW flow aloft. This ridge/trough position also tends to favor the core of the cold air being to the west with occasional shots of arctic air traversing the Gulf and overspreading SE Alaska from the west, interspersed with periods of more mild marine air being drawn north from the NPAC (especially for the southern Panhandle). Moist S to SW flow aloft will lead to high chances for precipitation through the period. Precip type will likely be a real headache especially for the northern half of the Panhandle as interactions between the cold airmass to the N and W with an active and suppressed Pacific jet are leading to wild swings in where models place individual storms. The potential is there for a couple of significant winter storms especially for the northern Panhandle, but the lack of arctic high pressure over the Yukon and the subsequent continental air intrusions make this forecaster skeptical. With all the uncertainty elected to keep temperatures near seasonal norms over the north, with slightly warmer than normal conditions over the south. This leads to a lot of rain/snow wording in the forecast which seems reasonable.

Depending on individual storm tracks, periods of windy conditions are likely especially over the Gulf and for the southern Panhandle. Long and persistent SW fetch over the Gulf will also likely lead to large sea states as well.

Very little change was made to the inherited forecast due to the large uncertainty.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for AKZ027-028. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ025. Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM AKST Friday for AKZ018-019. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ041-042. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-034>036-043-051-052.



Ferrin/DEL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK	1 mi	63 min	NE 2.9 G 6	35°F
GUXA2	9 mi	37 min	N 1.9 G 2.9	34°F			997.6 hPa	34°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK	30 mi	59 min			42°F		999.2 hPa
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK	38 mi	67 min	WNW 1.9 G 4.1	38°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK	44 mi	79 min	ENE 21 G 26	36°F			997.8 hPa
LIXA2	45 mi	37 min	N 14 G 17	34°F			998 hPa	34°F
RIXA2	48 mi	37 min	N 23 G 28	36°F			996.6 hPa	35°F
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK	49 mi	79 min	N 11 G 14	34°F			1000.6 hPa	34°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK	8 mi	33 min	NNW 4	10.00 mi	Light Rain	34°F	33°F	97%	1000.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAGS

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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