Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 291411 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 611 AM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SHORT TERM. /Thursday and Friday/ Little to no changes made to the short term forecast as a quiet summertime pattern continues for Southeast Alaska. High pressure remains over the gulf while an inverted trough builds over the Panhandle on Friday. With 850mb temps significantly warming to +10 to +14C, expect highs to progressively get warmer each day. Nudged temperatures slightly above MOS guidance for today as highs have been exceeding model guidance each day this week. Expect low to mid 70s for most locations today and then mid to upper 70s by Friday. It is not out of the question a few spots could reach the 80 degree mark Friday as north winds develop at the surface and east southeast flow sets up aloft leading to downsloping off the higher terrain.

Winds will remain unimpactful through the period with little forcing and a weak pressure gradient in place. Afternoon southerly sea breezes will develop once again this afternoon and evening with the strongest winds to 15 kt expected around Cross Sound and Icy Strait, Northern Lynn Canal, and Taiya Inlet. Flow switches around to the north on Friday as a thermal trough builds over the Panhandle, keeping sea breezes from developing in the afternoon for most places, with the exception of Upper Lynn Canal.

Only forecast concern is the potential for isolated thunderstorm development Friday and Saturday afternoon. Southeast flow increases ahead of an approaching surface low from the south Friday into Saturday. Aloft, a 50 kt mid level jet streak pushes into the Southern Panhandle placing the area within the right exit region of strongest winds. Typically this is an unfavorable area for precipitation development as the right exit region of the jet is characterized by upper level convergence and sinking air. This feature along with a building upper ridge out of the SE will work to suppress widespread convection Friday and Saturday. However, due to a hot, unstable airmass at the surface and increasing moisture flowing northward, there is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms during the peak heating of the afternoon Friday and Saturday. Orographic lifting will be the main lifting mechanism for storms so expect the higher terrain of the Southern Panhandle to have the best chance at seeing a storm. CAPE values 500 j/kg, LIs -1 to -3, 0-6km bulk shear around 35 kt, and dew points rising into the upper 50s to near 60F will create favorable conditions for thunderstorm development if discrete cells begin to form. Not expecting widespread thunderstorm activity; however the possibility is there for a storm or two to produce a few lightning strikes and brief periods of heavy rain and gusty winds. Most places will remain dry; however it is important to highlight the slight chance of a storm. Overall a quiet next few days outside of any isolated shower or storm.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through Wednesday as of 10 pm Wednesday/ Low pressure that moves into the southern AK Gulf late Friday will meander about while weakening though Sunday. With the lows initial westerly position still expecting overall dry conditions with chance of showers rotating around the low moving over the panhandle. No real pressure gradient so any stronger winds should be thermally driven (sea breeze). Temperatures aloft on Saturday still around +12C at 850mb so places that do not get a sea breeze or have some downslope flow should easily hit the 70s. Due to these very warm surface temperatures resulting in more atmospheric instability have slight chance of thunderstorm development again Saturday. By Sunday a high pressure ridge to the west of the low starts to move eastward with frontal boundary extending from a Bering Sea low in the Western Gulf. As the Bearing Sea low and most other upstream features have been poorly depicted by both ensemble and operational models little confidence in weather for next week. Previously indications that this front would continue to moves east and reach the panhandle, now more indications that this front will remain to the west as high pressure again builds over the Gulf with lows moving up from the N Pacific. There is the trend indicated by standardized anomaly tables of cooler, but still above normal temperatures and most precip potential as easterly waves driven by lows moving up into the SE Gulf. However wouldn't bet any money on this looking at model run to run inconsistencies.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . None.



CM/PRB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK	1 mi	79 min	Calm G 1	57°F
GUXA2	9 mi	33 min	NW 1.9 G 4.1	54°F			1020.3 hPa	48°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK	30 mi	57 min		51°F	51°F		1023.4 hPa
GEXA2	31 mi	32 min	NE 6 G 8.9	54°F			1020.3 hPa	48°F
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK	38 mi	83 min	WNW 6 G 8	56°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK	44 mi	35 min	WNW 1 G 1.9	58°F			1022.1 hPa	50°F
LIXA2	45 mi	33 min	N 4.1 G 7	58°F			1020.6 hPa	51°F
RIXA2	48 mi	33 min	W 7 G 8	52°F			1020.3 hPa
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK	49 mi	35 min	NNW 1.9 G 5.1	56°F			1022.7 hPa	55°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK	8 mi	49 min	N 3	10.00 mi	Fair	54°F	48°F	80%	1023.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAGS

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska

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