Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gustavus, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:19AMSunset 3:58PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 3:29 PM AKST (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 1:39PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 358 Am Akst Wed Jan 22 2020
Today..E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain and snow early in the morning, then rain.
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Thu..E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Thu night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
Sat..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK
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location: 58.45, -135.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 222350 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 250 PM AKST Wed Jan 22 2020

SHORT TERM. A band of precipitation over the Icy Strait/Juneau to Haines area caused accumulating snow for Juneau and Haines today while Gustavus and Hoonah saw mainly rain. This points to the narrow rain/snow line over the north/central panhandle. The next weather system is already causing rain over the southern half of the region and this will spread northward overnight. As the low approaches, winds should increase out of the north through the northern inner channels, helping to keep temperatures down near freezing in the Juneau area. Therefore expecting precipitation start as snow in the Valley and a mix for Downtown Juneau. 3-5 inches of snow is expected before changing to mainly rain in the afternoon, but will once again affect the Thursday morning commute. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 3am - 1pm Thursday for Juneau.

The precip will spread northward through the morning, causing snow to increase again for Haines and Skagway. Temperatures should stay cold enough in these locations to see all snow, but wouldn't be surprised if some mixing were to occur near sea level Thursday afternoon. This will be a wetter snow that compacts more, so not expecting accumulations to pile up as quickly as with other recent events.

The low pressure center will weaken as it tracks northward along the outer coast through Thursday afternoon. However, an upper trough will dig into the NW gulf through the day and cause a new stronger low to overtake the first. This will may result in a lull in precip rates Thursday afternoon, but will then become enhanced again Thursday night into Friday. Expect this to keep snow going in Haines and Skagway. With no discernible break, a long duration Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 6am Thursday - 6pm Friday for 10-16 inches.

The upper level trough brings with it much colder air from interior Alaska. The cold air tracks across the gulf from the west on Friday, causing a change to showers, which will become more mixed with snow through the night for the whole region.

LONG TERM. /Friday through Wednesday/As of 10 PM Tuesday/Overall longwave pattern over Alaska for this period will feature a persistent ridge over the Bering Sea with a deep upper trough over mainland Alaska. This pattern favors the building of a very cold airmass over much of the state. For most of this time period, SE Alaska will be to the east of the primary trough axis and in S'ly to SW flow aloft. This ridge/trough position also tends to favor the core of the cold air being to the west with occasional shots of arctic air traversing the Gulf and overspreading SE Alaska from the west, interspersed with periods of more mild marine air being drawn north from the NPAC (especially for the southern Panhandle). Moist S to SW flow aloft will lead to high chances for precipitation through the period. Precip type will likely be a real headache especially for the northern half of the Panhandle as interactions between the cold airmass to the N and W with an active and suppressed Pacific jet are leading to wild swings in where models place individual storms. The potential is there for a couple of significant winter storms especially for the northern Panhandle, but the lack of arctic high pressure over the Yukon and the subsequent continental air intrusions make this forecaster skeptical. With all the uncertainty elected to keep temperatures near seasonal norms over the north, with slightly warmer than normal conditions over the south. This leads to a lot of rain/snow wording in the forecast which seems reasonable.

Depending on individual storm tracks, periods of windy conditions are likely especially over the Gulf and for the southern Panhandle. Long and persistent SW fetch over the Gulf will also likely lead to large sea states as well.

Very little change was made to the inherited forecast due to the large uncertainty.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for AKZ027-028. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM AKST Thursday for AKZ025. Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM AKST Friday for AKZ018-019. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ041-042. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-034>036-043-051-052.



Ferrin/DEL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 1 mi63 min NE 2.9 G 6 35°F
GUXA2 9 mi37 min N 1.9 G 2.9 34°F 997.6 hPa34°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 30 mi59 min 42°F999.2 hPa
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK 38 mi67 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 38°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 44 mi79 min ENE 21 G 26 36°F 997.8 hPa
LIXA2 45 mi37 min N 14 G 17 34°F 998 hPa34°F
RIXA2 48 mi37 min N 23 G 28 36°F 996.6 hPa35°F
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 49 mi79 min N 11 G 14 34°F 1000.6 hPa34°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK8 mi33 minNNW 410.00 miLight Rain34°F33°F97%1000.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAGS

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS7S5SE10SE9SE9SE8SE10S5CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmNW5N3N4CalmNW6NW5NW6W4CalmNW4Calm--CalmN3NW4CalmCalmN4CalmCalmNW3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Bartlett Cove
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:15 AM AKST     4.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:29 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:23 AM AKST     15.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:39 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:01 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:02 PM AKST     -1.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.611.79.77.35.34.24.66.3911.814.115.415.213.410.26.22.3-0.4-1.5-0.61.85.18.511.4

Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska
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Lemesurier Island Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:51 AM AKST     4.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:20 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:29 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:46 AM AKST     13.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:41 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:02 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:52 PM AKST     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11108.26.24.84.35.16.89.211.513.113.512.610.57.64.41.6-0.2-0.80.12.35.1810.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.