Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak67 pajk 252251 afdajk southeast alaska forecast discussion national weather service juneau ak 251 pm akdt Sun aug 25 2019 Short term through Tuesday night the upper shortwave trof that brought in the tstms will move E of the area early this evening. Some upper level ridging will move in tonight, but will quickly be pushed E by next energetic shortwaves that will move across the gulf and NE pac through mon. These shortwaves will merge over the eastern gulf by Mon night, then drift slowly inland Tue and Tue night. At the sfc, a weak trof will drift n through the gulf tonight, and will be absorbed by a northward moving occluded front over the far N gulf mon. A low should develop over the SW gulf tonight, and reach the central gulf mon, while another low develops further SE and moves NE into the eastern gulf by Mon evening. This low will then weaken and move se along the outer coast Tue and Tue night. A stronger occluded front will move NE into the eastern gulf mon, then move across SE ak mon night, exiting the far SE part by daybreak tue. It now appears that the atmospheric river associated with the more southern shortwave will get into the southern panhandle for late mon afternoon and night. After looking over the models, the 12z canadian seemed to be the best compromise with the systems, but the differences between the models were not that large overall. For tonight, the showers will initially diminish as weak ridging moves in, but increase again overnight as low level convergence increases ahead of the trof moving in. Still might be a TSTM or two over the far eastern inner channels early this evening as well. Rain ahead of the complex system moving into the gulf will likely reach the outer coast toward daybreak. For mon-mon night, rain will spread inland Mon morning and early afternoon. The heaviest rain initially will be along the N half of the panhandle as deformation and frontogenesis intensify the rain band during the afternoon. By late afternoon though, with the atmospheric river reaching the southern area, heavy rain will begin there as well. Think the far S could get rain rates as high as 1 2 inch per hour from 00z-06z, especially along S and w facing terrain. After fropa, precip should transition to showers

along the central outer coast early in the evening, then this transition to showers will spread inland across the central and n areas and southern outer coast later in the night. Winds will be increasing ahead of the low and fronts moving in, and some gale force winds will be likely over the eastern gulf and southern inner channels. May also be some strong winds in areas that favor easterly winds across the n-central area, especially in the afternoon and early evening. For Tue into Tue night, the low over the NE gulf will slide se along the outer coast. There will likely be a small second wrap frontal band with it that affects the central coast with heavier showers and a burst of wind. Some of the showers will also get inland across the central and southern areas. The showers and winds will slowly diminish from the NW Tue afternoon and night as the low weakens and moves off to the se. Long term Wednesday through Sunday night ... Weak upper level ridging should be building in Wednesday. This should make all of southeast alaska dry, if not sunny during the day. The dry weather should reliably last through Thursday night. By Friday morning, wpc and the national blend are trying to build in precipitation from the west. ECMWF is pushing a front over the northern panhandle from the southwest at that time, and the GFS is totally dry. As a result, confidence in a dry weekend is below average. Models are still trying to bring down daytime highs for the second half of this week. We are now looking at highs in the second half of the week in the mid to upper 60s. Not the 70s we were originally expecting, but still solidly above normal for this time of the year. Ajk watches warnings advisories Public... None. Marine... Gale warning for pkz022-036-041>043-051-052. Small craft advisory for pkz021-031>035. Rwt fritsch visit us at http:

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK	1 mi	55 min	SE 1 G 1.9	51°F
GUXA2	9 mi	29 min	N 1 G 1.9	48°F			1020.2 hPa	48°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK	30 mi	51 min		49°F	51°F		1022.7 hPa
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK	38 mi	59 min	SE 5.1 G 8	56°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK	44 mi	71 min	ENE 2.9 G 4.1	55°F			1017.9 hPa	51°F
LIXA2	45 mi	29 min	SE 9.9 G 13	54°F			1020.3 hPa	51°F
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK	49 mi	71 min	SE 8 G 14	53°F			1020.8 hPa	52°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAGS

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK

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