Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK67 PAJK 251511 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 611 AM AKST Mon Jan 25 2021

SHORT TERM. /Monday and Tuesday/ The work week starts off on a quiet note as high pressure builds into the region from the west. The main forecast challenges in the short term will be low clouds and patchy fog this morning and Tuesday morning. Widespread fog, dense at times, earlier this morning has since dissipated across most areas with low stratus still hanging around in a few spots across the southern two thirds of the Panhandle. A very weak shortwave passing through this afternoon will increase clouds across the northern Panhandle and along the Outer Coast. There isn't a lot of moisture and lift associated with this system; therefore only scattered snow showers are expected along the Outer Coast with flurries through the Icy Strait corridor.

Fog may redevelop late this evening as skies begin to clear. The best timing for fog development will be during the early evening hours where clouds start to break up and winds remain light. Northerly outflow winds are expected to pick up through the overnight hours clearing out any leftover low clouds and fog.

Speaking of outflow, winds increase dramatically into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens between a high in Canada and a low in the SW gulf. Expect a strong northerly gale to develop in Lynn Canal while small crafts develop in the Central and Southern Inner Channels. Higher gusts likely out of interior passes and in typical outflow areas. Strong winds with gusts to 50 mph possible in Skagway and along the Klondike Highway during this timeframe. Mountain Wave guidance for downtown Juneau keeps conditions poor for Taku winds through mid week with weak cross barrier flow, around 40 kt, and a lack of a critical layer. Gusts to 40 mph are still possible around downtown Juneau due to gap flow winds from the tight pressure gradient; however do not expect a mountain wave to develop at this time.

Overall forecast confidence is at or above average for the short term. Lowest confidence remains in the fog and low cloud development later this evening.

LONG TERM. /Wednesday through Sunday/ As of 10pm Sunday. The "cold air outbreak" will be reaching it's peak mid-week at the beginning of the extended forecast period. High temperatures in the teens to upper 20s will be widespread across the panhandle while low temperatures will generally be in the teens to single digits. A bigger temperature difference of 10+ degrees is likely between interior valley locations and windy spots (ie. the Mendenhall Valley and Downtown Juneau). Strong high pressure over the Yukon and an inverted trough over the inside waters will cause predominately N-NE outflow winds through the inside waters, reaching gale force for Northern Lynn Canal. As a result, freezing spray remains in forecast and was even expanded to more marine waters. Overall, this is a dry pattern for SE Alaska, so have kept the POP forecast low.

The Yukon high pressure will shift down into northern B.C. Wednesday night through Thursday. This will shift the best outflow to be more out of the eastern interior passes, including potential for Taku winds. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will move into the northern gulf from the west Thursday night, increasing said E-W pressure gradient. A front extending outward from the low creates the potential for snow along the outer coast as the low tracks slowly SE Friday into Saturday. Latest models, and their previous runs, have had more differences with the position and subsequent track of this low, so have only made minor changes to this portion of the forecast. But more often than not, the high pressure and dry air already in place wins out, limiting how far inland the snow can reach - and may end up just causing increased clouds. Once the low shifts SE, the cold/dry/northerly pattern continues.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . None. MARINE . Gale Warning for PKZ012-013. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051>053.



CM/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK	1 mi	56 min	E 1.9 G 4.1	30°F
GUXA2	9 mi	29 min	NNE 1.9 G 2.9	32°F			1008.1 hPa	30°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK	30 mi	52 min		33°F	44°F		1010.1 hPa
GEXA2	31 mi	27 min	ENE 13 G 18	33°F			1007 hPa	29°F
SISA2 - Sisters Island, AK	38 mi	60 min	E 18 G 22	33°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK	44 mi	72 min	ENE 16 G 19	33°F			1009 hPa	29°F
LIXA2	45 mi	29 min	N 8.9 G 11	31°F			1008.5 hPa	25°F
RIXA2	48 mi	38 min	N 13 G 17	32°F			1007.6 hPa	27°F
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK	49 mi	72 min	NNW 4.1 G 8	31°F			1011.3 hPa	25°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK	8 mi	26 min	N 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	31°F	31°F	100%	1010.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAGS

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station

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