Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gustavus, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:16AMSunset 9:50PM Thursday July 16, 2020 6:53 AM AKDT (14:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:18AMMoonset 5:29PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ021 Icy Strait- 355 Am Akdt Thu Jul 16 2020
Today..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tonight..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gustavus, AK
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location: 58.45, -135.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK67 PAJK 161411 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 611 AM AKDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SHORT TERM. An upper level low over the Yukon-B.C. border has a trough extending southward over the panhandle and is the driving force for a surface low over the Southern Inner Channels. Seeing both of these lows rotating on satellite is interesting, but helpful to know that these are at different levels of the atmosphere. The surface low caused moderate rain on Wednesday over the south, resulting in record rainfall for the day of 1.61" at the Ketchikan Airport, beating the previous record of 0.81" by almost double (but should note this was the lowest daily rainfall record in the whole month). The upper level low will slowly track ESE through Thursday, causing the upper level winds to change from W to NW and push the surface low off to the east as well. Therefore, expect a drying trend with decreasing clouds. Have gone below guidance for POP today, outside of Hyder, think that they are overspreading afternoon convective showers from the mountains and had +30% POP where there are currently mostly clear skies. Will have to watch for any CU build up in the afternoon in case isolated showers need to be added back into the forecast. Expect high temperatures to easily get into the mid 60s with some sunshine.

A ridge formed over the gulf last night, causing a marine deck of clouds to form. This has also trapped in the moisture from yesterday's rain and caused fog to form as the clouds broke. Hoonah, Kake, and Petersburg were even as low as 1/4 mile VIS for a while and a Dense Fog Advisory is out until 8am.

The ridge will shift eastward early Friday and flatten. The increasing onshore flow will likely cause any marine layer clouds over the gulf to be pushed inland. As that occurs, all models are showing a band of vorticity aligned with the length of the coastline to move over those low clouds. As a result, think that there is good potential for some drizzle to be wringed out and have added that to the forecast for early Friday morning from Yakutat to POW. Otherwise the increasing onshore flow will cause more clouds and moisture to move in from the gulf. Then the next system will be approaching from the SW Friday night. This system will still be developing as the first drops of rain spread inland late overnight, ending our dry break. The NAM moved the rain in the earliest and was an outlier compared to other operational models.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through next Thursday/ Rain, showers, precipitation . whatever word you use to describe liquid falling from the clouds, will most likely happen in the long term. A large ridge of high pressure over the central and northern Pacific will continue to build through the weekend. The ridge axis sets up south and east of the Panhandle, with southwesterly flow pumping ample gulf moisture into the region. A strong baroclinic zone will form on the north side of the ridge with multiple systems riding along it, increasing precipitation coverage and intensity. Persistent clouds and precipitation appear likely this weekend through early next week.

The chance for rain increases Saturday and remains high through Monday. A low in the central gulf will head NE towards the NE gulf coast while swinging a front into the Panhandle Saturday morning/afternoon.

There won't be much of a break in the precipitation as another system moves in from the SW following almost the same path. This second system Sunday into Monday looks to have more upper level support, better dynamics, and more moisture associated with it. As the low on Sunday moves into the NE gulf, a fetch of moisture from the tropics oriented SW to NE will be pointed right at the Panhandle with plenty of mid and upper level support. Abundant moisture streaming into the region combined with persistent onshore flow, a strong mid level jet, and impulses moving into the Panhandle will make for a good heavy rain set up. GFS ensembles IVT values approaching 500 kg/m/s Sunday into Monday. EC standardized anomaly tables also show precipitable water values 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. The potential is there for an atmospheric river to impact much of Southeast Alaska late this weekend and into early next week. Confidence is high that this weekend through early next week will be very wet; however confidence is still lower regarding timing and placements of the systems and the finer details. Towards the middle of next week, confidence remains low as guidance keeps flip flopping between solutions. Latest model runs suggest a ridge starting to form towards mid week; however details as to where the ridge axis sets up are still unclear. Kept with WPC by keeping at least a chance for rain in the forecast for now. Will trend PoPs up or down later this week once guidance has a better handle on the set up.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. PUBLIC . Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ021-026. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041-042.



Ferrin/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 1 mi88 min Calm G 1 49°F
GUXA2 9 mi32 min Calm G 1 49°F 1008.1 hPa48°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 30 mi66 min 54°F
GEXA2 31 mi31 min W 4.1 G 6 49°F 1008.5 hPa49°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 44 mi44 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 50°F 1010 hPa50°F
LIXA2 45 mi32 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 53°F 1008.1 hPa51°F
RIXA2 48 mi32 min W 7 G 9.9 53°F 1007.6 hPa51°F
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 49 mi44 min Calm G 4.1 53°F 1010.2 hPa53°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gustavus, Gustavus Airport, AK8 mi58 minN 00.25 miFog46°F46°F100%1011.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAGS

Wind History from AGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW8NW11NW10NW8NW6NW33SE7SE53SW4S3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN7NW9N7NW7NW6NW5N3CalmSE5SE8SE9
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2 days agoCalmCalmE4E5SE5E6SE9SE6SE12SE11SE8SE8SE8SE10SE4E3CalmN3NW5N6N8N7NW7NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Bartlett Cove, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Bartlett Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:17 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:08 AM AKDT     1.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:32 AM AKDT     10.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM AKDT     5.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:29 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM AKDT     13.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.29.26.84.42.61.82.23.65.67.59.19.9109.38.16.75.65.15.67.191112.513.2

Tide / Current Tables for Lemesurier Island Light, North Passage, Icy Strait, Alaska
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Lemesurier Island Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:19 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:02 AM AKDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:25 AM AKDT     8.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:27 PM AKDT     3.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:36 PM AKDT     11.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.17.14.82.71.30.81.32.74.66.68.18.98.87.86.34.83.93.94.86.58.410.311.411.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.