Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Egegik, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:30AMSunset 11:38PM Sunday July 5, 2020 11:11 AM AKDT (19:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:34PMMoonset 3:50AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 343 Am Akdt Sun Jul 5 2020
.small craft advisory tonight and Monday...
Today..SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Tonight..W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Mon..W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
Mon night..W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue through Wed..W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egegik, AK
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location: 58.45, -157.5     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 051337 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 537 AM AKDT Sun Jul 5 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The shortwave moving south out of the Interior is finally making the transit over the AK Range and into the Copper River Basin. It is slower and weaker than initially expected, but has still managed to fire a couple nice thunderstorms along the Denali Highway. The shortwave can be well identified on a water vapor loop in satellite. Convection with rain showers has been occurring in the Copper River Basin through the night as well. Elsewhere in the forecast area, low level cloud cover and rain exist along the coast of Southwest Alaska. This is occurring ahead of a weak front moving through the Central Bering.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue their trend of falling apart in agreement after about 48 hours. They are at least performing better than they were yesterday, with the upper level high breaking down and mainland ALaska undergoing a transition in the weather pattern. They are still too fuzzy to have high confidence in the forecast past 48 hrs, so moderate confidence in the forecast.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions will persist. Turnagain arm winds have increased and will continue at about their current strength until midday. A seabreeze will then switch wind direction to a southwest direction for the afternoon and evening hours.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2 Sunday and Monday) .

Warm and dry weather will hang on across the Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl, and the Susitna and Matanuska Valleys as the ridge aloft continues to influence this area. Cooler temperatures are still slated to arrive on Monday as the ridge weakens and clouds increase. A vigorous shortwave currently over the Alaskan Range will continue to track south to the northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. This feature is producing some strong thunderstorms along the Denali Highway and some showers in the rest of the area. These cells look to merge through the morning as they drive east across the Copper River Basin before ending by late this afternoon.

Meanwhile, a warm front on the leading edge of a high amplitude ridge moving in from the Bering Sea will track into the Western Gulf and to Kodiak today, bringing periods of rain. An upper level shortwave will then arrive tonight, pushing the front northward toward the southern Kenai Peninsula and enhancing the rainfall intensity. The northward extent of steady rain looks to be somewhere between Homer and Soldotna. The upper trough will continue eastward across the Gulf on Monday, which will cause the front to quickly fall apart and bring an end to the rain.

Low pressure over the Yukon will bring weak shortwaves into the Copper River basin producing mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The rest of Southcentral will be in the transition zone between the front and upper trough which cross the Gulf and the waves crossing the Copper River Basin. With weak forcing, expect the end result to be primarily an increase in clouds through Monday with marginally cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

The pattern will gradually become more stable as northwesterly synoptic flow will bring a cooler and more stable airmass over the area Monday and Tuesday. The best chance for convection will be this afternoon and evening as a wave of upper level energy moves through the Kuskokwim Valley. Stability indices show the Kuskokwim Valley being the area most favorable for the potential of convection this afternoon and evening. Due to this, there is a slight chance of wet thunderstorms in the Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon and evening. For the remainder of the period, the dominant concern will be fog and low stratus throughout the low- lying and coastal areas in Southwest Alaska. MOS guidance shows little to no dewpoint depressions at various locations in these areas.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The pattern will remain benign across the Bering/Aleutians over the next 3 days. Teleconnections (large scale weather patterns) support the development of upper level ridging across the Bering/Aleutians during the middle of this week. With ridging in place, there is high confidence that winds will remain below gale force throughout the forecast period. The primary forecast challenge will be fog and low stratus as MOS guidance shows little to no dewpoint depression in the Pribilof Islands.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday).

Gulf of Alaska: Weak low centers slide along an elongated trough across the Gulf and slipping Southward through Tue. Confidence is good for West to Northwest small craft winds and waves to develop East of the Shumagin Islands and spreading to the Barren Islands through Thu. Lower confidence for Gale winds and waves possible near Sitkinak and through the Barren Islands Wed and Thu.

Aleutians and Bering: A front pushes into Western Alaska on Wed. Confidence is good for Southwesterly small craft winds and waves across the Eastern Bering and Bristol Bay. High pressure after the front helps bring Easterly winds from the Pribilofs to the Western Aleutians through Thu.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday) .

A North Pacific low and front will bear down on the Aleutians by Fri before shifting towards the Mainland for Sat. The low is expected to follow its preceding front to near Nunivak Island. Expecting increased cloudiness, rain and windy conditions to spread over the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and into Southwest Alaska during its move East.

A weak gradient over Interior Alaska will be interrupted by periodic short waves through Sat. Increased cloudiness, rain and possible thunderstorms during daytime heating, but with cooler temperatures overall. High pressure reasserts itself over the Gulf through Sat.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BJB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO/RC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . ED MARINE/LONG TERM . MK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Egegik, Egegik Airport, AK7 mi75 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast57°F55°F96%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAII

Wind History from AII (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NW4W5W6W7W6W5NW3CalmCalmNW3NW3W3W6W6W4W5W4W5SW3W5W5SW7W5
1 day agoSW3W8W8W8W9W8W9W10W9W8W6W6SW4SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm
2 days agoNW4W8W3W9W6W7W5NW5W7W6W4W5SW4SW4SW4SW5SW4SW3SW4SW6SW5W5W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Bluff, Kvichak Bay, Alaska
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Middle Bluff
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Sun -- 03:34 AM AKDT     22.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:33 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:50 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:40 AM AKDT     6.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:51 PM AKDT     16.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:26 PM AKDT     -3.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.715.319.822.322.420.617.213.19.26.66.27.810.513.315.41614.711.87.83.3-0.6-3.1-2.90

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Sun -- 12:23 AM AKDT     3.68 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:06 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:30 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:31 AM AKDT     -2.67 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:57 AM AKDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:42 PM AKDT     1.90 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:29 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:01 PM AKDT     -2.97 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:47 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:36 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.52.91.80.2-1.2-2.1-2.6-2.6-2.5-1.70.11.61.91.40.6-0.7-1.9-2.7-3-2.7-2.2-1.30.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.