Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Egegik, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:39AMSunset 4:43PM Friday January 22, 2021 10:11 PM AKST (07:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:55AMMoonset 3:26AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 352 Pm Akst Fri Jan 22 2021
.small craft advisory Saturday and Saturday night...
Tonight..S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of southern bays and passes in the evening. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..S wind 20 kt becoming W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat night..W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Sun..S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sun night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon through Tue..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Wed..SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egegik, AK
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location: 58.45, -157.5     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 230207 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 507 PM AKST Fri Jan 22 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A high amplitude pattern is in place, with a trough over the Bering Sea southward into the North Pacific and a ridge over the east Pacific northward to the ALCAN border. A large low complex along the Aleutians is lifting slowly northeastward into the eastern Bering Sea. A southerly jet streak extends from the North Pacific northward across western Alaska. A series of mostly weak upper level short-waves embedded in the southerly flow area tracking northward across mainland Alaska. For the time being, precipitation is fairly sparse over the southern mainland, though cloudy skies prevail for nearly the entire region. A band of precipitation is beginning to form at the leading edge of the trough, which also corresponds with a cold front. This band extends from the eastern Bering Sea southward across the Alaska Peninsula, and its headed onshore along Southwest Alaska and into the western Gulf. The airmass out ahead of the front is warm enough for all rain. So generally expect rain ahead of the front, transitioning to snow as colder air moves in behind the front.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models continue to struggle with evolution of the upper trough and development and track of a surface low over the northern Gulf on Saturday. The trough currently over the eastern Bering/North Pacific becomes negatively tilted as it pushes into the Gulf late tonight through Saturday, thanks to strong ridging out ahead of it. As short-waves round the base of the trough, it induces formation of an upper low center, which then leads to deepening of a surface low which forms ahead of the trough. Models differ the location/timing of formation of the upper center, and therefore also disagree on the depth and location of the surface low. The ECMWF/Canadian solutions are farther north and weaker with the surface low (vicinity of western Prince William Sound), which would bring snow into Anchorage during the day Saturday. The GFS/NAM are farther south over the northern Gulf and stronger, which would keep Anchorage dry. Thus, forecast confidence for Saturday over Southcentral and the northern Gulf is low. However, all solutions do depict a trailing trough axis approaching Southcentral as the low heads eastward Saturday night into Sunday. Thus, widespread light snow is likely with this trough, particularly from the Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley.

Models also differ with the track of the next deep low moving from the Pacific to the Aleutians this weekend. However, the overall depth and strength of winds looks similar. Agreement is also pretty good with a new low tracking south of the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island Sunday night through Monday.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Low level wind shear will weaken overnight as a low forms over the northwest Gulf. The track of this low is highly uncertain at this time and will determine when precipitation arrives in Anchorage. The TAF is currently based on a more southerly track of the low over the northern Gulf. If the low tracks farther north, then would expect snow and MVFR ceiling/vis to develop sometime midday or early afternoon Saturday. No matter what occurs during the day Saturday, snow and MVFR conditions look likely Saturday night, with some potential for brief periods of IFR conditions.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday Afternoon through Monday) .

The upper level ridge has kept most of area under quiet weather today, with a few lingering showers along coastal areas. Tonight the ridge will get shunted eastward as a negatively tilted shortwave pushes into the Gulf overnight this will allow for a triple point low to form along the front just east of Kodiak Island. This system will bring widespread precipitation from Kodiak Island the eastern Kenai Peninsula and north towards Prince William Sound. This will allow the pressure gradient to tighten keeping the Turnagain winds going on Saturday with gusts 40 to 50 mph along the arm in the higher elevations, the upper hillside is expecting winds gusting up to near 45 mph. The latest model runs have come in a bit weaker and farther north with surface low as it tracks along the eastern coast of the Kenai Peninsula and near Prince William Sound. A deformation zone will form Saturday and Saturday night over the Kenai Peninsula with rain changing to snow as cold air slowly moves in behind the low Saturday afternoon and evening. Anchorage and the MATSU valleys may see some light precipitation on Saturday with rain or snow with temperatures in the low to mid 30s, but very little if any snowfall accumulations. As the upper trough moves north Saturday night and Sunday this will allow cold air to move into Anchorage and the MATSU valleys with a better chance of accumulating snowfall of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible in hillsides of Anchorage and Eagle River. There is still some uncertainty on the timing and amount of snowfall for Anchorage and surrounding areas, but confidence is increasing that best chance will be Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Sunday the low will track southeast into the eastern Gulf this will allow north to northwesterly flow to develop with gusty winds through the Barren Islands and Resurrection Bay as well as gusty winds through Whittier and Passage Canal. The rest of Southcentral will see clearing skies and drier conditions late Sunday into Monday as another upper level ridge builds back over the area. This will also allow cooler air to filter into the area mainly due to clearing skies and night time cooling. Late Monday another low pressure will approach the southern Gulf but is expected to track across southern Gulf with stronger winds and most of the precipitation across Kodiak Island and eastward.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A front associated with a low in the eastern Bering will continue to move across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska this evening. Warm temperatures will keep rain the predominant precipitation type for most areas initially as the front pushes farther inland, aside for a few areas in the northern Kuskokwim Delta that will start out as snow. As the front continues to push farther inland overnight, westerly flow and colder temperatures moving in will allow for this system to transition over to all snow overnight tonight into Saturday, with little accumulation expected. Clearing conditions across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay tonight could lead to patchy for across the region for Saturday morning. A few showers will linger late Saturday as much of the precipitation moves out of the region, allowing for a break in the weather through Sunday afternoon. The next frontal system will approach the Southwest coast late Sunday into Monday morning, which should once again bring another round of snowfall to the Southwest. However, there is still some uncertainty in the timing of this feature.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A surface low near the Pribilofs this afternoon will keep widespread precipitation and gale force winds across the Bering and Aleutians as the low tracks inland over Southwest Alaska by Saturday afternoon. Areas along the Aleutians have been reporting rain this afternoon, but colder temperatures moving in behind this system will help to transition over to snow as showers linger on Saturday. A second system will enter the western Bering and Aleutians Saturday afternoon, which will bring another round of widespread precipitation and gale force winds, with the possibly of storm force wind gusts. Models are still struggling on the exact position of this low and where the strongest winds will be as the system tracks eastward through Sunday. By early Monday, a North Pacific surface low moves towards the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, but models once again struggle with the strength and placement of this low before it heads into the Gulf late Monday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Monday through Wednesday.

Gulf of Alaska: Slight model variance, but forecast confidence is good. A low moves across the Southern Gulf through Wed. Widespread southeasterly small craft with areas of gale force winds and waves move across the Gulf through Midday Tuesday. After the low passes, widespread northerly small craft with areas of gale force winds move across the Gulf, diminishing Wed. Northwesterly small craft with some gale force winds run through the Barren Islands late Tue-Wed, diminishing Wed. Wave heights to 20 feet move across the Gulf Tue-early Wed before subsiding late Wed.

Aleutians/Bering: Slight model variance, but forecast confidence is good. A Western Bering low moves across the Bering through Tue. Widespread westerly small craft with areas of gale force winds and waves move over the Southern Bering and Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula through Tue. Wave heights on the Pacific side to 23 feet, subsiding by Tue. A North Pacific low and front move over the Aleutians and Bering through Wed. Widespread high end gale force with areas of storm force winds and waves spread across the Aleutians and Bering through Wed. Wave heights on the Pacific side 35 feet, Bering side 26 feet over the Western and Central Aleutians and Bering Tue and Wed.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7): Tuesday through Friday.

The long term begins with a broad upper level ridge extending from the North Pacific northward over the eastern Bering and western half of the state. Farther west, models are consistently advertising a deep upper level low in place over the western Aleutians. One conclusion that can be drawn this far out in time is that the interaction of these two features will create a more amplified pattern for the middle of next week. Meanwhile at the surface, the GFS is currently advertising a 946mb low over the western Aleutians with a 1031mb high to the east Tuesday night. The EC solution paints a similar picture with a 949mb low and a 1032mb high at this same time, although there are differences in placement. While there is a high degree of uncertainty in the strengths and locations of these two features, there is increasing confidence for strong winds and high seas along the Aleutian Chain and across much of the Bering on Tuesday. By Wednesday, model solutions suggest the low over the western Bering tracks northward into the central Bering, but rapidly weakens as it loses upper level support. While this low pressure system does not entirely displace the ridge, it does succeed in suppressing it to the south, ultimately allowing for the upper level jet to regain a more zonal orientation across the Aleutian Chain. By late next week, unsettled conditions are likely for Southcentral as remnant systems advect eastward from the Bering, courtesy of the more zonal upper level jet.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 351 352 119 120 130-132 138 411-413 150 155 165-172 174-178. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning . 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SEB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . RC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/KO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Egegik, Egegik Airport, AK7 mi16 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast35°F33°F93%1002.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAII

Wind History from AII (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Middle Bluff, Kvichak Bay, Alaska
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Middle Bluff
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Sat -- 04:12 AM AKST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:44 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:00 AM AKST     17.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:09 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:49 PM AKST     7.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:32 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:07 PM AKST     15.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.88.65.12.20.81.43.97.511.214.516.817.516.915.112.810.28.27.68.710.712.914.615.414.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Sat -- 01:58 AM AKST     -2.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:45 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:45 AM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:59 AM AKST     2.59 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:53 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:40 AM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:07 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:07 PM AKST     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:29 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:24 PM AKST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:06 PM AKST     1.63 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:59 PM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-2.4-2.6-2.4-2.2-1.30.52.12.62.41.80.8-0.3-1.2-1.7-1.9-2-1.8-0.70.91.61.40.9-0

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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