.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

A neutrally tilted trough across the Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon will continue to tilt negative through Thursday. A surface low pressure in Bristol Bay continues to transfer its energy to a new low forming in the North Pacific south of Kodiak Island. Moderate rain, heavy at times will continue across mainland Southwest through Thursday morning before steady rain becomes more showery as colder air works in aloft and the best forcing moves to the Gulf of Alaska. More notable besides the rain across the area will be the gusty northwest winds on the back side of this system as it moves to the Gulf. Gusty northwest winds are already being observed across the Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN. Expect gale-force winds across the North Pacific side marine zones of the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN tonight through Thursday. Winds diminish from west-to-east during Thursday; although small-craft winds will likely linger south of the AKPEN into Friday. A weak front from Kamchatka currently over the western Bering Sea and Western Aleutians will spread light rain across the western and central Chain as it works eastward.
This front reaches the Pribilof Islands by Thursday night and approaches the Southwest coast Friday bringing another round of light rain mostly for coast and Bering side of the AKPEN.

Attention then shifts mainly to the Bering for Friday and Southwest for Saturday as a powerful storm system looks to gather.
A trough across eastern Russia looks to dig southward into the Bering Sea with multiple shortwaves rounding the base of the trough across the Aleutians for Friday. Expect showery conditions across the Western Aleutians with more in the way of steady rain across the Central Aleutians most of Friday into Saturday. As the pattern amplifies and the trough continues to dig southward now into the North Pacific, cyclogenesis looks to take place across the central Bering west of the Pribilof Islands Friday night.
There are still some questions and uncertainties regarding the evolution of this "to be" gale-force low. However, there is reasonable agreement amongst ensemble guidance that has the system moving northward toward Saint Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Saturday night into Sunday. This track is what the forecast package currently reflects. Such a track would also be favorable for potential high surf and storm surge concerns across the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Regardless, moderate to heavy rain will be likely across the Pribilof Islands Friday night and across the AKPEN and mainland Southwest for Saturday. Stay tuned as details on this system continue to be ironed out.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Models are pointing towards a trough moving across Southwest Alaska into Southcentral and Gulf region over the weekend. Strong south to southwesterly onshore winds across the southwestern coast of the state along could allow for minor coastal flooding and high seas across the Kuskokwim Delta and low-lying coastal communities through late Sunday into early Monday. Full moon is expected Tuesday, which could influence higher tide levels around this timeframe as well. As the low moves east out of Southwest Alaska, its center will more likely stay north of the Alaska Range. There are some differences with the characteristics of the low and especially with the front, but rainfall is highly likely this weekend with decreasing coverage later Sunday into the early week ahead. A ridge looks to build behind the low. There is low confidence with how strong and how long that ridge will be around, because not far behind, another system is looking to occur Monday and Tuesday from the Bering Sea and Aleutians. At this time, a developing North Pacific trough and a Kamchatka low may converge in the southern Bering Sea near the central Aleutians by Tuesday morning. Depending on how it develops and tracks in time, west to northwesterly winds could be gusty through bays and passes in the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula with a low to medium potential of reaching storm force Tuesday morning for the eastern Aleutians somewhere around Seguam Island and Alaska Peninsula near False Pass to Shumagin Islands. Because of model differences, the swath of storm force winds could end up a little more north toward the Pribilof Islands should the track of the low be more north. This latter scenario is suggested in the Canadian model and is more of an outlier. This system will continue onto Southwest Alaska sometime Tuesday afternoon and into Southcentral by Wednesday.

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AVIATION

PANC...Strengthening easterly flow ahead of a storm system moving into the Gulf late this afternoon will allow for temporary lifting of ceilings. However, a short-wave will track inland tonight, bringing light rain back to Anchorage. Low level flow will then gradually weaken and back toward the north overnight tonight through Thursday morning. As a result, expect steady rain with lowering ceilings, likely settling in at MVFR conditions. There is come uncertainty in the forecast tomorrow morning, with Anchorage sitting between the exiting low over the Gulf and a short-wave trough moving in from the west. Expect a deformation band of heavier precipitation to form, but not sure if it will be over Anchorage or to the west. In any case, with winds becoming light and variable in the low levels, there is a chance for IFR conditions Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. The upper level short-wave will be slow to progress eastward, likely not crossing Anchorage until Friday morning. As a result, MVFR or IFR conditions will likely linger through at least Thursday night if not longer.