Saturday, October31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aleneva, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:22AMSunset 6:04PM Friday October 30, 2020 8:13 PM AKDT (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:40PMMoonset 6:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ137 Marmot Bay- 340 Pm Akdt Fri Oct 30 2020
Tonight..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun night..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Mon through Tue..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aleneva, AK
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location: 58.55, -152.62     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 310035 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 435 PM AKDT Fri Oct 30 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The pattern aloft features a shortwave trough sliding through the Copper River Delta and towards Canada. A vertically stacked and decaying low sits south of Atka, with a surface front protruding to the north and east, laying just south of Kodiak.

A weak low over the north eastern Gulf continues to move into Canada this afternoon. This low, combined with a shortwave to the north, is bringing light snow showers to the eastern Copper River Delta.

For Southcentral Alaska, northerly flow has begun to increase. Despite the winds, clouds formed across much of the Anchorage metro this morning and finally dissipated once the sun heated the atmosphere up.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are all in great agreement through the short and mid range forecasts. The biggest disagreements start to show Monday/Tuesday but are well outside of the forecast area. Given the consistency, confidence remains high on the wind forecast extremes coming up later this weekend.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday) .

A surprisingly active weather pattern is moving into the area, despite a lack of precipitation nearly everywhere. Presently, the focus is on Kodiak. A light northwesterly surface wind in town resulted in all snow falling in the area. These snow showers will continue through the day, but the combination of daytime heating warming paved surfaces and temperatures at or slightly above freezing along with light precipitation rates should confine any very minor accumulations to grassy surfaces only. The fog that has haunted the Cook Inlet region the past few days has finally dissipated this afternoon. As the winds gradually increase over the next several days, no more fog concerns are expected.

A strong upper level trough and associated push of Arctic air are moving across all of Southcentral this afternoon. Counteracting this cooling will be the gusty winds that will gradually increase with time in most areas, particularly through the gaps. The primary gap wind to take note of will be Thompson Pass. Once the upper level wave finally passes south of the Pass Sunday and Sunday night, the northeasterly flow behind it aligned with the already gusty northeasterly winds and additional downward forcing makes high winds through Thompson Pass a strong possibility Sunday night into Monday. There remains some disagreement in the models as to how strong the winds will be and when the atmospheric winds become fully unidirectional, but headlines are probable with future forecasts, barring there aren't any substantial shifts in forecast thinking. Blowing snow will be present the next several days as winds increase, but should not amount to substantial decreases in visibility since no additional snowfall is expected.

While the airmass will be by far the coldest of the season, the strong winds accompanying the arrival of the air mass should greatly temper how cold the temperatures get in wind-prone areas. Seward, Whittier, Valdez, the Matanuska Valley including Palmer and Wasilla, and north of Talkeetna through Broad Pass should all see gusty winds increasing Sunday and through the day on Monday. Anywhere the winds are calm, the temperatures will plummet. However for most of the area, favorable upper level support should support most areas having a decent wind through the night. The breezy, but not particularly gusty areas will include west Anchorage, Kenai, along the coast of the Kenai Peninsula and much of the Copper River Basin. Thus, have nudged forecast lows significantly warmer owing to those winds negating much of the cooling from the cold air mass. If any of those windier spots see calmer winds overnight for any substantial amount of time, the overnight lows will be much colder than advertised.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Saturday through Monday) .

Overnight low temperatures across the lower Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta will remain in the teens through the weekend, while air temperatures in the lower 20 to upper 30 degrees Fahrenheit will be felt across Bristol Bay and AKPEN in the coming days. Mostly sunny days and clear to partly cloudy skies will persist into early next week, thanks to an upper level ridge nearby which will keep the region especially the coastal areas relatively quiet.

A shortwave from a polar low will dive past Kuskokwim Mountains early Saturday morning, and this could bring another brief round of light snow across Kuskokwim Valleys and Kuskokwim Delta Saturday morning.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Saturday through Monday) .

An extensive occluded front across the central and eastern Aleutians will continue to bring steady light rain there, with gales over much of the Aleutians east of Adak. Storm force winds are expected to pass through Amukta Pass, which lies between Nikolski and Atka Island by tonight. Hazardous wave heights and strong gales will continue into Saturday morning, then gradually diminish by Saturday afternoon. The next frontal system from Northwest Pacific will re-invite gales over the western Aleutians on Saturday night, and this may last for a day should the circulation weakens and stay south of the Aleutians in the coming days.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5) Monday through Wednesday.

A North Pacific low and front tracks southward through Wed. Models are mixed, but confidence is good for easterly small craft winds and waves with local gale force winds over the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula diminishing Tue. Upper level troughs bring northerly small craft with local gale force winds over the Eastern Bering and Bristol Bay Tue and Wed. A strong front approaches the Western Aleutians and Bering with widespread high end gale force winds for Wed.

For the Gulf, a weakening low over the Northern Gulf lingers through Wed. Track and development vary between models, but two areas of westerly gale force winds and waves occur Mon, the first from the Barren Island into the Central Gulf, the second from the Alaska Peninsula into the Western Gulf, diminishing Tue. These two areas become northwesterly gale force winds that fan out into the western Gulf for Wed.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7).

The main weather story moving through the weekend and into next week will be the intrusion of arctic air across the Southern Mainland in the wake of a vigorous surface low moving from the western Gulf to the Alaska Panhandle. The core of the coldest air looks to arrive on Monday as the polar upper-level low settles over Southcentral. 850 mb temperatures (~4500ft AGL) look to plummet to -18 to -20C across interior Southwest and over the Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Peninsula. The Copper River Basin could see 850 mb temperatures fall to -22 to -25C. This would translate to highs struggling to climb into the teens to lower 20s for most locations not immediately along the northern Gulf coast by early next week. The initial thinking for the extended forecast was that with the cold airmass, that daytime and overnight temperatures would bottom out. Despite the cold, the strong winds will actually help to keep temperatures up and we've made those changes in the forecast.

Gusty outflow winds will also remain a potential along the immediate coast through next week due to the build up of colder air inland and a lingering gradient between an interior ridge and trough along the coast. Models, however, are indicating that one or more compact, meso-lows could spin up at the surface over the northern Gulf due to the interaction of the upper-level dynamics and the increased surface winds and thermal gradient. If this does happen, there could be additional cloud cover that could help moderate temperatures nearer the coast and also bring about an increased chance for snow showers through early next week.

Farther to the west, a ridge of high pressure will build over the western Aleutians and expand east by next week. Multiple shortwaves diving south between the ridge and the aforementioned polar low to the east will allow for clouds, snow showers, and gusty northerly winds to persist from the central Bering to the Southwest Alaska coast.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . GALE 155-173 175-180 STORM 174 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JPW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CB MARINE/LONG TERM . SS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 43 mi43 min N 8.9 G 11 36°F 1005.1 hPa9°F
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 57 mi55 min NNE 5.1 G 13
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 63 mi43 min NE 25 G 29 32°F 1006.2 hPa18°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK55 mi20 minNW 910.00 miLight Snow35°F23°F61%1004.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W6W4W5W5W5W5CalmNW5NW5N5N53NW4NW4NW5N4NW9NW7N5NW6NW7NW8NW9
1 day agoNW6NW8NW7NW8NW5NW8NW6NW9NW7W5W4NW4W5W4CalmCalmNW4NW3E5E4E3W4W5W5
2 days agoCalmW3W5W5W5W7W6W6--W5NW3W5W3NW9NW6W7NW8W7NW8NW8NW6NW6NW7NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Big Bay, Shuyak Island, Alaska
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Big Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:17 AM AKDT     14.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM AKDT     Full Moon
Sat -- 09:12 AM AKDT     1.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:20 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:26 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:12 PM AKDT     15.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:20 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:48 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:38 PM AKDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.29.912.814.213.9129.15.731.72.24.57.711.21415.314.812.79.35.41.9-0.3-0.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Carry Inlet, Shuyak Island, Alaska
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Carry Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:13 AM AKDT     13.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM AKDT     Full Moon
Sat -- 09:04 AM AKDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:20 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:26 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:08 PM AKDT     14.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:20 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:48 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:30 PM AKDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.29.612.313.513.111.28.35.12.61.62.34.67.710.913.414.513.911.88.54.81.5-0.5-0.51.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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