Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aleneva, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 7:31PM Thursday October 1, 2020 2:12 PM AKDT (22:12 UTC) Moonrise 6:16PMMoonset 5:45AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ137 Marmot Bay- 853 Am Akdt Thu Oct 1 2020
.storm warning tonight...
Today..SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
Tonight..E wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 27 ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
Fri..SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Sun..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Mon..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aleneva, AK
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location: 58.55, -152.62     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 011234 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 434 AM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A very active storm pattern remains in place for Alaska. A deep trough remains anchored in place across the North Pacific with a strong ridge over south British Columbia south to the Lower 48. This setup will keep the pattern stagnant as we can already see the next storm system on water vapor and satellite imagery this morning moving northward. One 985 mb low just moved into the Bristol Bay area and will continue moving westward through the Bering today. This low has been bringing occasional rain showers to much of Southwest and Southcentral this morning. Looking closer at the radar returns, you can see the flow is generally southeasterly across much of the southern Alaska Mainland. This is leading to downsloping for the Anchorage Bowl, Kenai Peninsula, and areas west of the Alaska Range and the Kuskokwim Mountains. An occasional shower or spritz makes it over the mountains into the aforementioned areas this morning, otherwise many areas are remaining dry. The next low is seen near 45N and between 150W and 160W. This low has a moisture fetch southward to just north of Hawaii. This means the already wet pattern will continue to become even wetter as this system approaches.

Over the Bering and the Aleutian Chain, generally quiet weather continues as a weak upper level ridge dominates the pattern. Some cold air is still present over the central Bering this morning which can be seen in the cumulus clouds that are evident on the nighttime microphysics imagery this morning. An occasional brief shower may accompany these cumulus clouds due to the unstable atmospheric profile that cold air creates moving over relatively warm water. Lastly, a weak system is riding along the northern periphery of this weak ridge that is expected to bring increased cloud cover and showers to the western and central Aleutian Chain.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in very good agreement on the pattern for the next couple of days. All models are in agreement on another low moving up from the North Pacific which is already evident on satellite imagery this morning. By the weekend the models continue the theme of the jet becoming more zonal. This will change the storm track from being south to north to more of a southwest to northeast moving track. Models generally all agree on a storm system south of Dutch Harbor Saturday morning but differ on the placement, exact track, and intensity of the low. The Canadian-NH is the furthest west model and the strongest with the low. The NAM is the furthest east and much weaker with the low. The EC and GFS are in the middle with GFS closer to the Canadian and the EC closer to the NAM leading to moderate forecast confidence for this system over the weekend.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. A storm moving northward through the Gulf will lead to northerly winds Thursday afternoon. Low level wind shear is expected over and near the terminal this afternoon through the remainder of the TAF package.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A weakening storm center over Bristol Bay will continue generally windy conditions across Southcentral. Strong easterly winds are expected to continue across Turnagain Arm and Portage Valley through today. Pressure rises on the backside of the front which moved inland have allowed the Turnagain Arm wind to bend into Anchorage and brought gusty southeast winds out of the Knik River Valley, and southerly winds over the Copper River Basin. Rain across most areas have switched to showers with frontal passage, but still remain pretty steady over the north Gulf/eastern Kenai Peninsula.

Yet another strong low and associated front head north toward the western Gulf this evening/tonight bringing another round of storm force winds and moderate to heavy rain to Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. This additional rainfall will increase the potential for flooding for the Kenai Peninsula streams (mostly near Seward) and localized flooding and mudslides on Kodiak Island. The front moves north across Southcentral on Friday so precipitation will trend toward showers, though still fairly steady along the Gulf coasts.

As the front heads north the pressure fields tonight will cause the Turnagain Arm wind to bend south and kill the southerly winds across the Anchorage Bowl. Additionally, southerly winds across the Copper River will diminish and there will be shift from a Knik wind to a Matanuska wind (NE). Pressure gradients will increase easterly winds across Turnagain Arm and Portage Valley late tonight/early Friday and give rise to high wind potential which will likely hold into the afternoon hours on Friday. Friday will also bring a return to gusty Knik winds and southerly winds across the Copper RIver Basin with pressure rises on the backside of the front as it moves inland.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Friday night) .

The remnants of the storm force low that impacted the AKPEN yesterday have moved over Bristol Bay with the low level center just off the coast. Cross barrier flow should limit rain to the windward sides of the major mountain ranges, but as the low center moves northwest through the day today rain will become more expansive over the region as the flow shifts to the southwest. Since this storm was generated in the tropics, expecting well above averages temperatures again today as the warm, southerly air moves in. Winds are also expected to be gusty throughout the region, with the highest winds expected through Kamishak Gap and into Iliamna.

Tonight, yet another strong low is expected to reach the AKPEN, so another round of heavier rain is expected on the windward slopes. Like Thursday, downsloping should keep chances for rain lower on the leeward sides (northwest) of the major mountain ranges although showers are possible. By Friday afternoon the low center will have crossed the AKPEN once again transitioning the flow to be onshore. As a result, rain should become more widespread. Temperatures on Friday should be above average once again due to warm air advection.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today through Friday night) .

The pattern of bimodal weather for the east and west Bering is expected to continue for the Bering/Aleutians through Friday night. Today, a weakening low is expected to move from Bristol Bay to the northwest before curving back towards the Pribilof Islands. This will continue the rainy pattern with small craft advisory criteria winds. Another strong low is expected to impact the AKPEN tonight through Friday night, which will return rain and gale force winds from Cold Bay east. Over the western Bering, northerly flow at or below small craft advisory criteria and rain will persist through Friday night.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday).

Bering/Aleutians

There is a decaying low near St Matthew Island Saturday morning and a new low south of Dutch Harbor. Widespread northerly flow is expected across the Bering with showers possible. The surface low south of the Chain will continue to deepen and track south of the AKPEN Sunday morning and move into the Gulf.

Gulf of Alaska

At the onset of the forecast period expect widespread southwest flow and somewhat of a lull between systems. However, an organized system will move into the southern Gulf on Sunday. Confidence is below average for Sunday as there are significant discrepancies between solutions on the placement and intensity of the low center. Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Saturday through Wednesday) . The final in a series of fall storms will make landfall along the Gulf Coast on Saturday night through Sunday evening. This will bring another bout of heavy coastal rain and strong winds to the coast, with lighter rain inland. This low track will generally keep Southwest Alaska and the Bering away from the impacts of this low. Expect rainy and cloudy weather to persist through Tuesday, with a brief period of high pressure and drying on Tuesday night before the next Bering front quickly moves into Southwest Alaska on Wednesday. Inland blocking high is looking more and more likely, thus the storm track looks to finally shift south of the Gulf of Alaska by mid to late week, allowing cooler high pressure to dry out Southcentral and the Gulf Coast for the second half of the week, although Kodiak will continue to see wetter weather.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 119 120 125 130 131 132 136 137 138 Gale Warning 127 129 139 140 141 150 155 160 FIRE WEATHER. NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . MV SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . RMC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CJ MARINE/LONG TERM . PS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 43 mi43 min E 20 G 27 51°F 1010.1 hPa51°F
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 57 mi61 min ENE 7 G 9.9 51°F 51°F1007.6 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 63 mi43 min N 2.9 G 2.9 52°F 1010.5 hPa47°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK55 mi20 minE 223.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy51°F48°F89%1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADQ

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE27
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2 days agoS10S11S11S11S6S4W4CalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W6W4CalmNE12NE19NE18NE18NE18
G25
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G29
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G34

Tide / Current Tables for Big Bay, Shuyak Island, Alaska
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Big Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:05 AM AKDT     14.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:45 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:15 AM AKDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM AKDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:26 PM AKDT     15.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:33 PM AKDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.51113.614.71411.78.44.71.60.20.72.96.310.113.31514.913.19.962.60.50.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for Carry Inlet, Shuyak Island, Alaska
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Carry Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:01 AM AKDT     13.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:45 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:07 AM AKDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM AKDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:22 PM AKDT     14.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:14 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:25 PM AKDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.510.713.113.913.110.97.64.11.30.20.83.16.49.912.814.31412.295.32.10.30.52.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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