Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aleneva, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

Current satellite imagery shows a ridge over the Bering which extends over Southwest and into the Interior and a low in the northwest Pacific. The low moves towards the western Aleutians this afternoon and will continue to move eastward throughout the forecast period. With eastward movement of the low, the ridge will be displaced to the east. By Friday evening, the low will be over the eastern Bering and southern AKPen while the ridge will be over Southcentral. Behind the low, another ridge begins to build over the western Aleutians starting tomorrow night.

With the ridge over Southwest, conditions will be calm and mostly clear through Friday.While much of Southwest and the northern AKPen will see highs in the 60s to low 70s, the areas to watch will be from Bristol Bay north to the Kuskokwim Valley, where there will likely be a prolonged period of daytime highs above 70 degrees. The warmest of these days will be today and tomorrow for Bristol Bay and the AKPen as the ridge axis moves overhead. For Bristol Bay, conditions like these occur about once a year, typically towards the end of July. With more people out and about conducting subsistence activities, it's a good idea to plan for these warmer temperatures, especially as several days in a row of 70+ degree temperatures could lead to cumulative heat stress. The good news is that overnight lows will dip to 45-50 degrees, providing the opportunity for some cooling down overnight.
Additionally, overnight fog has formed in the AKPen up to King Salmon the past couple of nights and looks to continue. Areas with pronounced fog presence saw slightly lower afternoon high temperatures yesterday and may continue to see slightly lower high temps both today and tomorrow. For the Kuskokwim Valley, tomorrow and Friday will be warmest, with high temperatures on Friday potentially reaching 80 degrees from Sleetmute to Lime Village.

For the Bering and Aleutians, low stratus and fog look to persist. The Pacific low will send a front through the Aleutians and southern Bering starting this afternoon. Rain and southerly small-craft winds will be prevalent along the front as it moves through the Aleutian Chain this afternoon through Friday. A somewhat strong upper jet and theta-e ridge will be present with this system, which may allow conditions to be conducive for isolated marine lightning along the front. By Thursday evening the front will be near Adak/Atka. At around this time, both the upper jet and theta-e ridge weaken and conditions become more unfavorable for marine lightning. By Friday evening the front will be positioned in Bristol Bay through the AKPen with the occluded low between the Pribilofs and Eastern Aleutians. Behind the low, another ridge looks to form and potentially bring more fog and low stratus for the western Aleutians and Bering.

-PA

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Mainly dry and warm conditions continue across Southcentral Alaska through the long term period as the region remains under the influence of the upper level ridge through early next week.
Increasingly active weather is expected across the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska through the weekend into early next week as the pattern becomes more progressive. The first upper low brings a chance of rain to the eastern Aleutians into coastal Southwest Saturday before sliding south into the North Pacific. Quickly following this system, the next digging Arctic trough as well as a low emerging off of Kamchatka enters the Bering for Sunday.
Models continue to remain in fair agreement on the interaction of these two features in the Bering through midweek, leading to additional rain chances across the Aleutian Chain, AKPen, and Southwest Alaska. By the end of the forecast period, rain chances increase from Kodiak Island to the eastern Kenai Peninsula as the upper trough begins to pivot into the Gulf.


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will generally persist; however, a cloud deck at 3,500 ft that developed north and east of the terminal overnight will likely drift over Anchorage and the terminal this morning before eroding by around noon. Winds will be light through the day with a general west wind between 5 and 10 kt late this morning through late this evening.