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PKZ737 Marmot Bay- 432 Pm Akst Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
Fri..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
Fri night..W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tue..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 010209 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 509 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

As the trough moves inland, expect precipitation chances and winds to decrease across Southcentral through tomorrow (Friday)
morning. Temperatures will gradually

Another low is headed into the Gulf of Alaska this evening. The main trajectory is appearing to take an easterly track that could bring about north to south gap winds along the coast that could last through the weekend. Showers, primarily along the Gulf coast will linger as the low passes and the front interacts with residual energy.

While the models have come into better agreement, there is still enough differences, especially for Sunday, for confidence in the forecast to remain lower. The main implication will be on the potential precipitation and wind fields. Agreement returns early week with the low moving into the northern Gulf with more substantial and widespread precipitation returning.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

Cloudy, unsettled weather remains in the forecast through Sunday afternoon, with a general cooling trend expected. A longwave upper-level trough with multiple embedded lows stretches across the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and Western Alaska. While the general forecast is for unsettled weather, the details will be highly dependent on the evolution and track of the embedded lows.
Forecast confidence has increased since yesterday, but minor shifts in the lows' tracks could still lead to considerable changes to the forecast.

Diving into the details, a front extends from a parent low near Shemya. A compact low is currently located between the Pribilof Islands and Unalaska along this front, while an upper level low lingers over the Y-K Delta. The Bering Sea will continue to see gusty winds in the vicinity of the low centers, with a broad swath of gales expected over the Aleutian Islands as cold air wraps around the low. Satellite imagery shows convective clouds associated with this cold air, with a few lightning strikes in the North Pacific Ocean. While a strike or two is not out of the question along the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula through Friday morning, the likelihood of a thunderstorm occurring in the forecast area is very low. As we head into Friday, expect winds to gradually weaken as the low occludes, with rain becoming more showery before transitioning over to snow showers. With the cold air coming in behind this low, the other thing to watch for will be increasing coverage of freezing spray near St. Matthew and Nunivak Islands.

For Southwest Alaska, the main weather makers will be the upper low over the Y-K Delta and the compact low near the Pribilof Islands. With westerly flow wrapping around the Y-K upper low and easterly flow around a low in the Gulf, lower level convergence will lead to persistent, light snow in interior Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. This could lead to snow amounts as high as 6-8 inches between Lime Village and Koliganek/New Stuyahok, though this will be over the course of more than a day.
While there is still some uncertainty with snow amounts due to model disagreements, the total will likely be no higher than 1-4 inches from now through Friday night. There is also uncertainty with precipitation amounts as the compact low tracks into Bristol Bay early Saturday morning. Overall, though confidence is lower regarding precipitation timing and amounts with this second round, precipitation looks to remain light and safely all snow.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Monday through Thursday

The upper level longwave trough extends from the Chukotsk Peninsula across the Northern Bering into the Gulf of Alaska through the forecast period. Models and ensembles continue to be mixed with the significant features through Thursday. An Eastern North Pacific low pulls towards Southeastern Alaska, with heavier rainfall expected over the Southeast, but showery precipitation will fall over portions of the North Gulf Coast through midweek.
However, gusty winds are expected across the Alaska Peninsula and around Kodiak Island, beginning with the movement of the North Pacific low. Widespread areas of near gale force winds expand across the Gulf late Monday, with gale force gap winds from the Barren Islands down along the Alaska Peninsula to the Eastern Aleutians. A Easterly barrier jet moves along the North Gulf Coast Tuesday as the low makes its closest approach to the coast, diminishing Wednesday. Gales continue around Kodiak Island, diminishing Thursday.

A Western Bering low brings gusty winds over the Western Aleutians for Monday, moving into the North Pacific Tuesday. A new low center exiting through Anadyr boosts winds to near gale force over the Northern Bering all the way to the Western Coasts by Thursday. Areas of mixed precipitation spread across the Aleutians and Bering through the end of the period.

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Wind should go breezy from the southeast late this afternoon through mid evening in response to a weakening low moving over the area. Expect winds to turn back to a northerly direction by midnight.

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Big Bay
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Thu -- 04:30 AM AKST     13.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:32 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:07 AM AKST     3.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:49 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:55 PM AKST     14.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:25 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:41 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:40 PM AKST     -0.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Big Bay, Shuyak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Carry Inlet
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Thu -- 04:26 AM AKST     12.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:32 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:59 AM AKST     3.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:49 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:51 PM AKST     13.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:32 PM AKST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carry Inlet, Shuyak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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