Sunrise 5:01 AM   Sunset 10:50 PM Moonrise 2:03 PM   Moonset 2:49 AM

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FXAK68 PAFC 180027 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 427 PM AKDT Fri May 17 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak surface ridge will push north into the northern Gulf of Alaska, bringing some breaks in the clouds and slightly warmer temperatures to much of Southcentral on Saturday. Gusty southeasterly gap winds, particularly out of the Turnagain and Knik Arms and in the Copper River Basin will also develop ahead of an approaching low and front. Cloud cover and upslope showers along the coast will increase in coverage Saturday evening through early Saturday night.

A strong low over Bristol Bay supported by a deep and unseasonably cold upper level low over the Bering Sea will strengthen as it pushes east over the Alaska Peninsula and over Kodiak Island by Sunday morning, sending another period of precipitation back into the island. As the upper low and accompanying surface low move into the western Gulf, precipitation will also overspread the eastern Kenai Peninsula and into the Prince William Sound through Sunday morning. As the upper low hugs the coast and moves inland, shortwaves on its western periphery will allow precipitation to fill in over the Copper River Basin late Sunday into Monday. The Eastern Kenai and Prince William sound will see the heaviest precipitation while the Western Kenai, the Anchorage Bowl and the MatSu will see lesser amounts with drying downslope flow and gusty southeasterly gap winds.

-ME

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday evening)...

The forecast remains on track with the main player in the near- term being a large upper-level trough that extends southward through the Bering Sea. The upper-low within the trough will continue dropping southward through the central Bering tonight and into Saturday, bringing cold air with it as it does so. A stronger short-wave rounding the base of the trough will induce cyclogenesis on the Pacific side of the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) tonight. This low will pull Pacific moisture northward and into the AKPEN through Saturday. While most precipitation will fall along the Pacific side of the AKPEN, the precipitation forecast is a little more uncertain for the Bering side communities due to southeast winds blowing across the Aleutian Range and creating downslope drying.

Meanwhile, further north along the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island, there will be enough cold air in place to create a period of snow this evening into Saturday morning as the front lingers across the southwestern mainland coast. Accumulations will be light. This front pushes inland Saturday as the trough becomes more negatively tilted. The main precipitation-type with the system will be rain with northern areas of the Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak Island eventually turning over to rain as temperatures warm during the day. The other story with this system will be the easterly winds coming out of Kamishak Gap and impacting areas such as Koliganek, New Stuyahok, and Iliamna with gusts up to 50 mph Saturday and into Saturday evening. The main upper-low then shifts to the Gulf of Alaska for Sunday with some weak shortwaves left on the backside of the broad trough. This will help keep some isolated showers going for interior portions of Southwest for Sunday. Most of mainland Southwest clears out for Monday except for some light precipitation confined to the higher terrain.

Further to the west, next weather-maker will be a Kamchatka low and its front making their way to the western Bering by Saturday, spreading small craft winds and rain along the western Aleutians.
The front will weaken as it moves eastward toward the central Aleutians by Sunday. However, the trailing front will be a little stronger with perhaps some more enhanced precipitation for the central Aleutian Chain late Sunday night into Monday. The low itself moves to the central Bering by Monday as the front sweeps eastward to the Pribilof Islands, eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, and eventually to the mainland coastline of Southwest by Monday evening.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A persistent northwest to southeast oriented longwave trough will remain over the Bering with waves of lows moving into the northern Gulf during much of the first part of the extended period. This series of low pressure systems that move through the Alaska Peninsula and into Kodiak Island will bring coastal rain showers and interior cloudy and isolated rain showers. Toward the end of next week, a stronger low pressure system will move through Shemya into the Bering Sea and push the longstanding trough eastward. Indications are that the persistent trough and strong low could move in a more northeastward direction as high pressure progresses northward through the north Pacific.

DJ

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through Saturday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds out of Turnagain Arm are expected to develop Saturday afternoon.

King Salmon Airport, Naknek River, Alaska, Tide feet

Omakstalia Point
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Fri -- 04:49 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:54 AM AKDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:57 AM AKDT     6.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:51 PM AKDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
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Omakstalia Point, Naknek River, Alaska, Tide feet

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