Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 10:24 PM Moonrise 4:05 AM   Moonset 9:15 PM

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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 347 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.Tonight - NW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Thu and Thu night - N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Fri - N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Sat - N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.Sun - N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 080045 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 445 PM AKDT Tue May 7 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak upper level shortwave and surface heating this afternoon has lead to showers and even some isolated thunderstorms over inland, snow free areas. These will dissipate overnight as a surface low in the southern Gulf moves north to the PWS over the next 24 hours. This will increase cloudcover over most of the forecast area for tomorrow, along with a steadier rain along the coast. The upper level shortwave associated with the feature will help to bring another round of showers to the foothills and snow free valleys.

On Thursday the region will begin to come under the influence of a deep upper level low and modifying arctic airmass. This trough will move over the Alaska Peninsula on Thursday, wrapping cold air in from the southwest. Snow levels will drop significantly with chances increasing for snow accumulation above approximately 1000 ft, with snow falling and not accumulating at even lower elevations. There is plenty of uncertainty in the forecast associated with how the upper level trough breaks apart and sends various shortwaves into Southcentral Thursday and Friday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad upper low has taken up residency over the northern Bering on Tuesday with weak high pressure noted over Southwest Alaska and also over the Western Aleutians. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, much of Southwest Alaska has remained dry today. The one exception being King Salmon, which is still experiencing a steady band of light snow and reduced visibility down to less than 2 miles in the vicinity of a stalled boundary across Southwest Alaska. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska has aided in the movement of easterly wave activity along the boundary into interior Bristol Bay, and forecast models suggest this precipitation may continue into Wednesday.

Changes in the forecast are expected to begin as early as tonight as a polar low near Saint Matthew Island drops southward through the Bering. The low will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and snow to the Pribilof Islands through the morning hours on Wednesday. The combination of winds and snow will result in periods of reduced visibility down to one half mile. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Pribs from 4am to 1pm AKDT on Wednesday. The polar low will continue into the Eastern Aleutians during the morning hours with gusty conditions expected to linger into Wednesday evening from Nikolski to Unalaska.
Westerly gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. The arrival of cooler temperatures will also see rain transition to snow, and 1 to 2 inches of total snow are possible by late tomorrow morning.

After the polar low departs the Aleutians and moves into the North Pacific, a Kamchatka Low is forecast to spread a broad front into the Aleutians through Thursday night. Widespread precipitation will accompany the front and span the Aleutian Chain as it tracks from west to east, beginning Wednesday night.
Previously cooler temperatures over the Aleutians should lift northward and become replaced by warmer North Pacific temperatures.
Thus, any initial snow will be brief and quickly transition to rain.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A broad upper level trough extends across the Bering and most of Mainland Alaska through the forecast period. A weak upper ridge moves out of the Russian Far East Sunday, but flattens out over the Aleutians by Tuesday. Model guidance is good through late Sunday, but becomes uncertain across the Aleutians as the ridge collapses and a new overall flow sets up. A couple new features out of Siberia begin to influence the pattern Tuesday. A well developed upper low moves across the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday, then weakens and opens to a broad trough for Tuesday. Its surface reflection moves from the Eastern Aleutians into the Gulf, spreading a very active weather pattern along its track Eastward.

Widespread precipitation spread across the Aleutians, AKPEN and Southwest Alaska into Kodiak Island Saturday, and continues along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula into Prince William Sound and the rest of Southcentral Alaska through Sunday before tapering off in the Western portions. Locally heavy rainfall is expected for coastal locations from the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN, over Kodiak Island, and across to the Gulf into Monday, with decreasing amounts moving inland. Gusty surface winds to just below gale force levels precede the low across the Gulf through Sunday before diminishing. Breezy conditions over the Eastern Bering and Bristol linger into Monday.

-Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR ceilings are expected to persist through Wednesday morning. An isolated shower is possible later this afternoon and evening near or at the terminal; however, the best chance for any shower activity will likely be well north and west of the airport complex. Gusty southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will quickly taper off by 06Z at latest as pressure gradients shift ahead of a low tracking northward across the Gulf.

A series of upper level short-waves will lift northward toward Southcentral tomorrow, leading to lowering ceilings during the day Wednesday. Showers will develop by around 00Z Wednesday afternoon, but will quickly transition to steadier light rain.
Expect ceilings to drop to at least low end VFR, with a chance for a period of MVFR ceiling/vis, especially Wednesday evening.
Conditions look favorable for some low level convergence over west Anchorage as southwest winds in Cook Inlet meet southeast winds from Turnagain Arm. This also creates a challenging wind forecast, as wind direction could vary from southwest to southeast. In any case, do expect gusty winds to develop around the same time rain arrives.

Black Rock
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:16 AM AKDT     8.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:06 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:28 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:09 AM AKDT     3.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:55 PM AKDT     7.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT     New Moon
Tue -- 09:18 PM AKDT     -2.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:14 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black Rock, Walrus Islands, Nushagak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Hagemeister Island (north end)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:00 AM AKDT     9.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:08 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:33 AM AKDT     4.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:26 PM AKDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT     New Moon
Tue -- 09:29 PM AKDT     -1.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:17 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hagemeister Island (north end), Alaska, Tide feet

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