Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Hills, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:32AMSunset 4:51PM Monday January 25, 2021 1:20 AM AKST (10:20 UTC) Moonrise 1:15PMMoonset 7:27AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ160 Bristol Bay- 359 Pm Akst Sun Jan 24 2021
.small craft advisory through Monday night...
Tonight..E wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
Mon night..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
Tue..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu through Fri..W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Hills, AK
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location: 58.7, -160     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 250119 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 419 PM AKST Sun Jan 24 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The upper level disturbance that caused the widespread snowfall for much of the Cook Inlet region last night into this morning is winding down this afternoon as drier air and clearing skies press southward out of the interior. Outflow winds are already increasing through Resurrection Bay and Thompson Pass, and the outflow wind theme will become dominant in the coming days. More on that below. Fog and low stratus have been impacting parts of Southwest Alaska, including through the Kuskokwim Delta, and coastal Bristol Bay. A front moving east across the eastern Bering and Aleutians is spreading some cold rain which is approaching Dutch Harbor, with rain or a rain/snow mix moving into the Pribilofs. The front is associated with a large low in the western Bering, centered north of the Western Aleutians. The low is already fully occluded and is in the process of weakening and dissipating. Nevertheless, gales extend over large swaths of the western Bering this afternoon.

In the upper levels, shortwave ridging extends over Southwest Alaska, with a longwave trough and associated upper level low over the western Bering, with a 160 kt jet streak over the North Pacific south of the Aleutians. Very little is over Southcentral with the upper level disturbance dissipating, leaving nearly calm wind flow over the area.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model agreement is excellent this afternoon, as the pattern becomes much less complex with time. Cold high pressure builds into mainland southern Alaska through Tuesday, leading to clearing skies, colder temperatures and strengthening outflow winds through the gaps. Otherwise, the weather becomes very quiet over the mainland for the next couple days. Meanwhile all of the stormy action will be out over the Bering, as a strong North Pacific low moves into the western Bering from Monday night on. The models are also in excellent agreement with this feature as well. The main challenges will be precipitation type with temperatures hovering near freezing, and how strong the winds ultimately get to. More details on that storm below. Thus, forecast confidence is very high today.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light southerly winds will persist into this evening. As skies clear aloft, the threat for fog development will increase through the night. As usual, there is significant uncertainty as to when the fog will develop and how dense it will be, but is expected to cause periodic IFR to LIFR conditions into Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Wednesday) . As the remnants of the rapidly weakening upper level low that brought snowfall to much of Southcentral this morning move into the Gulf, clearing skies and falling temperatures are quickly moving into the region from the north. This trend will bring clear skies to most areas, and along with diminishing coastal winds, the possibility of fog. This fog is most likely in the Cook Inlet area tonight. There is also an outside chance that this fog could develop in the Copper River Basin as well, especially in the vicinity of the Copper River.

Starting tomorrow, the region will get a well deserved break from the active weather that has occurred for most of January. With the exception of a weak Gale force low that will clip the southern edge of Kodiak Island for Monday, will a return to clear skies and below normal temperatures that will persist into Wednesday. The one impact from this pattern will be for the potential for gusty outflow winds along the North Gulf Coast, especially near Valdez and out of the Copper River Delta.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Quiet conditions are set up across Southwest Alaska today as there is a break in the weather before the next system moves in. Most of the low stratus and fog that developed across the region overnight has burned off by this afternoon, allowing for clearing skies for the mainland. The cloud cover returns as a weak front approaches the Southwest coast this evening bringing a few showers into early Monday, but this activity shouldn't move to interior locations. Dry conditions return on Monday through Tuesday afternoon before the weather quickly shifts to a much cloudier and wetter pattern

Late Tuesday, there is high confidence in a front moving over the Southwest coast. However, models are still having a difficult time with the timing of this system moving into the forecast area and how far inland the front will move through Wednesday. In any case, this organized system is likely to bring widespread snow and accumulations of a few inches across Southwest Alaska.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The active weather pattern across the Bering continues today with a low in the western Bering. This system will bring widespread precipitation and an area of storm force winds this evening, which will then lift northward and weaken through Monday evening. To the east, a developing North Pacific low will move towards the eastern Aleutians by this evening, which will also bring a swath of storm force winds to southern parts of the eastern Aleutians. Warmer temperatures with this system will allow for a mix of rain and snow, which will transition to all snow overnight. Strong winds with this low could lead to blowing snow at times, but should not significantly reduce visibility in this setup.

Over the western Aleutians Tuesday morning, a storm force front moves over the Chain, which will see embedded hurricane force winds. Precipitation will initially start as snow, transitioning to rain or a mix of rain and snow throughout the day as the low center lifts over Shemya by Tuesday afternoon. To the east of Shemya, cold air moving into the backside of the low will allow for a brief period of elevated seas and sustained hurricane force winds, which will weaken to storm force Tuesday night into Wednesday as the low track farther north. The main concern over land areas for this system will be the potential for blowing snow for the western Aleutians. However, temperatures with this system will be the determining factor for precipitation type and blowing snow potential. Expect widespread gale force winds and precipitation to continues across the Bering and Aleutians throughout the day on Wednesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Wednesday through Friday.

Gulf of Alaska: Good model agreement with good forecast confidence early on and then lower confidence by Friday. Late Wednesday into Thursday a front with a gale force winds and a low forming just east of Kodiak Island will track towards Prince William Sound however some differences on evolution of this low regarding strength and track. On Friday this low will slowly turn south and weaken with mainly small crafts during this period, although still some uncertainty on track of this low, so lower confidence for Friday.

Aleutians/Bering: Good model agreement with good forecast confidence. A front exits the eastern Bering on Wednesday with Gales but decreasing late Wednesday as the front moves east. A strong low moves over the Bering Wed through Thu. Widespread storm force winds and waves with areas of hurricane force winds with the wind wrapped low. This system diminishes to widespread high end gale force winds with local areas of storm force winds spreading over the Bering and to the Alaska Peninsula for Thu. Wave heights to 45 feet on the Pacific side and 39 feet bering side spreading north and east subsiding Thu. Friday mainly Gales across a good portion of the area as this low weakens and moves east, while another low approaches the Western Aleutians Friday bringing more Gales.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday) .

Models are in fairly good agreement through the long term with the key features, this leads to higher than normal confidence for this forecast period.

A fairly zonal pattern will remain in place Thursday and Friday across the Bering and Aleutians with an amplified ridge breaking up this pattern across the eastern Gulf. On Thursday a strong shortwave will be moving across the eastern Bering. As it moves into the Gulf, it strengthens with a triple point low forming along a frontal boundary just east of Kodiak Island. This system will bring a good swath of precipitation to much of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. As this low moves through Gulf the ridge will move into western Canada. On Friday and Saturday a low up in the Arctic regions will dip south through the mainland of Alaska bringing colder temperatures to Southwest and Southcentral Alaska by next weekend.

Out west a strong ridge will develop Friday and Saturday in response to two strong lows moving across the northwest Pacific pumping warm air into the ridge and building it. On Sunday this ridge will slowly move east across the Bering with a low pressure system approaching the western Aleutians sometime on Sunday. This ridge will allow northwest upper level flow across much of the mainland of Alaska and into the Gulf allowing colder arctic air to move into the area next weekend.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale 132 150 165-175 185. Storm 155 176 177 178 Heavy Freezing Spray 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . JPW SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . DEK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . RC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Togiac Village, Togiak Airport, AK33 mi24 minN 910.00 miA Few Clouds25°F21°F85%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PATG

Wind History from ATG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W12W9W6NW6N3NE4W3NW3N3--N5N10N7N7NW3N6N7N5N6N8N9N10N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock, Walrus Islands, Nushagak Bay, Alaska
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Black Rock
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Mon -- 06:19 AM AKST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:00 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:32 PM AKST     7.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:14 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:46 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:17 PM AKST     5.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.35.84.83.52.10.80.10.31.22.84.467.27.97.97.77.26.76.25.95.966.16.1

Tide / Current Tables for Hagemeister Island (north end), Alaska
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Hagemeister Island (north end)
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Mon -- 06:45 AM AKST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:31 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:16 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:00 PM AKST     9.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:48 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:32 PM AKST     5.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:52 PM AKST     5.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.34.63.62.41.30.4-0.1-0.20.11.23.15.27.18.59.39.69.48.88.17.36.45.75.45.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.